Xavier Worthy: Future 1st rounder or next Texas bust?

That is the question isn't it? I don't know of anyone who has criticized the talent or production from Worthy as a true freshman. The issue really lies within the Texas program, its culture, and ability to develop skill players to the next level. Its no secret Texas has been subpar for over a decade now, but what makes it more interesting is the fact that they are doing it with so much talent. Since 2010, Texas has signed over 150 four stars and 15+ 5 star recruits to their program, but have not had a first round pick since 2015 (Malcom Brown, DT). While Texas had Devin Duvernay and Colin Johnson drafted in rounds 3 and 5 respectively in 2020, they have only had 3 wide receivers drafted in the top 3 rounds since 2010. That includes Jordan Shipley in 2010 (R3), Marquise Goodwin in 2013 (R3), and Devin Duvernay in 2020 (R3). To top this all off, Texas didn't have a single draft pick in 2021. This program is down bad, but in year 2 of the Sarkisian era there is hope for results to show. Let us jump more into Xavier Worthy the player and see why he is the one to finally break that Texas WR draft pick mold over the last decade.

Xavier Worthy the 1st round draft pick:

If there is anything you notice on Worthy after only one watch its the speed and YAC ability. Not necessarily his agility in traffic but that top end speed that has him looking like a gazelle in open field. Don't believe me? I know we have all seen this:

On the very first play from scrimmage in a ramped up rivalry game, he house calls a screen pass after making a defender look silly in the alley. The long strides to carry him down the sidelines is something to see, but the quick move upon the catch nearly froze the defender to the turf. He followed that up with a stiff arm to truly top it off. One wrong move and next thing you know you're reading that # 8 a good 20 years downfield.

In a tumultuous season for the Longhorns, Worthy still managed to break the Texas freshman record for receiving TDs in a year (12), which also led the entire Big 12 conference in 2021. Speaking of conference rankings, he was also top 5 in Receptions, receiving yards, and yards per reception in 2021. Tumultuous can seem generous as this was a season in which there was a brand new head coach, constant QB controversy and a tough season with losses against the likes of Kansas and West Virginia. In terms of talent, those three programs are not the same.

Even though it was only one season, Sarkisian showed the ability to get his players in space and move them around formations to ensure the explosive players touch the ball. We saw Worthy used in combination of orbit motion, jet passes, bubble screens, and even a tunnel screen or two. It's clear he is a player who excels on the outside due to his speed, but he has shown impressive skills inside as well. While his route running can be more crisp over the middle of the field, he really excels in limited action in finding soft spots in the zone. Texas also ran him on long developing crossing routes often to utilize that speed when caught in rhythm. As we can see below, even a simple dig route can be an easy YAC play (with a little help from weak tackling)

While many will argue he *should've* been tackled there - he wasn't - then proceeded to out run 4 different defenders about 40 yards. This is a player that truly lives by the mantra "Its always a go route until it isn't".

Xavier Worthy the Texas Bust:

I will be honest, there isn't much weight to this argument. All the talent is there in a scheme friendly to him and a quarterback with all the prestige out of high school. However as we discussed above, Texas does not have a rich history of producing high end NFL talent lately relative to recruiting results. Out of the three wide receivers drafted in the top 3 rounds since 2010, you could argue the best NFL career out of those goes to Marquise Goodwin. In a fantastic class at the time, Texas signed at least four different 4 star wide receivers in the 2018 class with Joshua Moore, Al'Vonte Woodard, and Brennan Eagles being the highest rated. Joshua Moore has transferred in his final year of college ball while Eagles went undrafted in 2021 and Woodard will be a graduate transfer to Sam Houston State in 2022. This is a new coaching staff so you hope that development is something they have honed in on.

There isn't a lot to criticize about the game of Xavier Worthy, but he will only be a true sophomore in 2022 and he wasn't exposed to a lot in terms of coverages or playbook in 2022. He stuck to the same general route tree (i.e. go route, various screens, crossing routes) but its expected they will utilize him more this year; especially considering the news Jordan Addison will sign with USC over Texas. At times it felt as though he was a little stiff in and our of his breaks but his straight end speed is also his biggest asset. There were clear inconsistencies with his hands and he wasn't asked to catch balls in traffic often. The route running skills were there in spurts but there is also a lot of untapped potential there with how elusive he can be in open field.

Final Verdict:

Xavier Worthy is a future first round pick. I feel he has already endured the worst set of circumstances that he will in his career at Texas and he lit the league on fire for his position. At times it may feel like I shat on Texas a bit - and I will always be a proponent of #HornsDown - but I truly feel Sarkisian brings something different than what Texas has given us on the field the last decade. The talent is getting better believe it or not, and I was never a fan of Tom Herman. It always felt as there was more flash than substance and it really sums up that era of Texas football. Unlike Herman, Sarkisian really does know how to get his playmakers the ball and can put his quarterback in position to succeed. The verdict is still out on Quinn Ewers but he looked good during the 2022 spring game and has plenty of talent around him with the addition of transfer wide receiver Isaiah Neyor and former Alabama tight end Jahleel Billingsley. Texas has all of the pieces to be a much improved team in 2022.

Worthy has plenty of time to work on his game and scouts are likely already looking at his tape being a hot future prospect. With two more seasons to put himself on tape we should be hearing his name early and often until he is draft eligible. This season in particular I will be looking to see his versatility and better catching consistency. With an increased role we should also see how talented he really is on the inside. One thing in particular was his recognition of a DB blind spot already at his age.

In one of his best games of 2021, we can see not much movement is actually required here to create space but you notice the edge to outside the numbers until he hits the blind spot and immediately cuts back inside for leverage on the deep ball. This is something that we didn't see much from his 2021 tape but assuming an increased role there will be more opportunity to show off these skills. There is no doubt in my mind Xavier Worthy is a future first round pick and will be an interesting dark horse Heisman candidate given his ability to return punts/kicks and being in a Sark offense. If Ewers pans out like his rating coming out of high school then we will be looking at Xavier Worthy as a Biletnikoff award finalist in 2022.