UFC 271 Bets and Picks

DAZN

What a main card! There is some confusion on who will be the second main card fight, but we will be abiding by the trusted UFC.com main card which lists Alexander Hernandez vs Renato Moicano. It appears the UFC has heard Hernandez on his fight card placement concerns as he is now listed in the main card. However it shakes out, hot prospect and close Israel Adesanya training partner - Blood Diamond - will make his octagon debut to start the night with three guaranteed bangers to end the night. Middleweight will be sorted after tonight, that is for sure! This is a great card with lots to get into so let us jump right in.

Bobby Green (-145) vs Nasrat Haqparast (+120)

What a perfect matchup to open this card. Bobby Green is coming off his first knockout since James Krause at UFC Fight Night 31 back in 2013 and w'ill be looking to gain some momentum after a few tough decisions. Nasrat is coming off his very first high profile fight in a matchup with Dan Hooker. While it didn't go his way on the judges scorecards, his performance won him over some fans and a chance to rise through the ranks. While Nasrat has lost by KO to his two best challengers in the UFC thus far - Dan Hooker and Drew Dober - he possesses real power in his left hand that makes him very dangerous. I expect Nasrat to come out firing early and Bobby Green to play the long game for a decision. I will be going with the upset here, as I believe Nasrat will have a good chance of catching Bobby Green and ending the fight by TKO in round 2. Nasrat is already an underdog but if you're looking to increase odds, he is +425 to win by KO, TKO, or DQ.

Renato Moicano (-154) vs Alexander Hernandez (+126)

As mentioned above, Alexander Hernandez publicly complained about his main even slot, to find himself right in that spot come fight day! I can't say I have ever seen something like this, and there is likely an explanation whether we get it or not, but something pushed Hernandez up and the timing is interesting. This fight is very interesting as Hernandez now has some extra pressure to perform with this new slot in the main card. Hernandez always brings a fight that will excite the fans, even at his own expense, but Moicano brings plenty of experience and likely a large advantage if this fight hits the mat. Moicano isn't exactly in the title picture, but his losses are to Rafael Fiziev, Korean Zombie, Jose Aldo, and Brian Ortega. I mean talk about a murderers row! Eventually all fighters at the top build a similar resume but it shows Moicano doesn't lose to just anybody. While I see a route for Hernandez to win this one with some dirty boxing and fighting in a phone booth, I still don't know what I will get from Hernandez night in and out. He is a very exciting prospect but there is still work to do to become a household name. A big performance here could do just that. Unfortunately, I see this fight ending in a Renato Moicano decision. I expect Moicano to use his wrestling and BJJ advantage to keep this fight in his comfort zone. Moicano ML is -154

Jared Cannonier (-165) vs Derek Brunson (+135)

Middleweights, its your time to shine! Derek Brunson is coming off a 5 fight win streak - with 2 finishes - and a dominant victory over rising star Kevin Holland. Jared Cannonier has won 4 of the last 5, with that only loss to Robert Whittaker and 3 knockouts. Styles make fights, and this is a perfect reason why. Its clear Cannonier will be looking to keep this fight on the feet and end it early, whereas Brunson will be looking to use his wrestling as he has leaned on during this recent streak. If Brunson proves to be too much with his wrestling this could be a shutout in 3 rounds. However, the fight starts on the feet and Cannonier has shown steady takedown defense at times. There is also the constant threat of Cannonier's power, as he can easily catch Brunson coming into a level change. At this point a Whittaker loss could have him reevaluating his place in the division so these two will likely be fighting to get the next title shot. It is unfortunate this fight is only 3 rounds given the potential stakes, but I do think that favors Cannonier from a cardio perspective. While I would not be surprised to see Brunson control this fight for 3 rounds given his recent streak, I believe the power of Cannonier will simply be too much. That will make it tough for Brunson to close the distance and level change fluidly. All that being said, I see Cannonier winning by a second round TKO to give the division a new potential challenger. Cannonier by TKO, KO or DQ is +115.

Derrick Lewis (-190) vs Tai Tuivasa (+155)

What a perfect Co-Main event and a treat for Houston prior to the only title fight on the card. As Derrick Lewis said in the pre fight press conference, these two will be "Swangin and Bangin" which is what we have come to expect from both Derrick Lewis and Tai Tuivasa. I am going to be honest, there isn't much of a technical view here for me. Its the heavyweight division, with two of the hardest punchers in the division, and those same two also happen to have the old school "Swangin' and Bangin' mindset to make this fight as good as advertised. While I will personally pass on the shoey out of Derrick Lewis' cup protector, but I will tune in for violence! Tai will have the speed advantage but Derrick Lewis brings an underrated chin which may end up being the most important factor. For most one punch KO power I do believe Lewis has the considerable edge in that department. I see both fighters standing to the swangin' and bangin' mindset and that is a disadvantage to Tuivasa. I see Derrick Lewis having too much power and a good enough chin to take one for one with Tuivasa and come out the end still standing. Houston will be rocking for their hometown guy and this is a much better matchup for Derrick lewis than previous Cyril Gane. Derrick Lewis is a -190 favorite for a reason and I tend to agree. I predict Derrick Lewis by first round KO. To improve the odds a bit, Lewis by KO, TKO, DQ is -152.

Israel Adesanya (-310) vs Robert Whittaker (+235)

Time has actually gotten me more excited for this rematch, as the first fight was about as decisive as it gets and the line for Adesanya here in the rematch shows that. I do tend to buy into the narrative that Whittaker needed a break around that first matchup and its clear in his performances that whatever changes he has made, they made a difference. While I don't necessarily think Whittaker has changed a lot in his overall game, its also safe to say we didn't even see a decent Whittaker in that first fight. I most notably noticed his propensity to check any and all leg kicks Gastelum through his way in his most recent bout. While Adesanya throwing leg kicks does not match Gastelum doing the same, that is a noticeable growth that will be vital to Whittaker getting a win over Style Bender. One thing that makes Adesanya so dangerous is his ability to counter strike so fluidly - as seen in his matchups with Whittaker and Costa - but is also just as content fighting you on the outside with leg kicks and jabs as we saw vs Romero and Costa again. Side note: I feel the need to mention the Adesanya performance vs Costa. It truly felt like I could feel Costa's confusion in the cage. It felt like you could see the levels they discuss in this sport that night as Izzy beat him in range and outside the pocket. Anyways, this fight is intriguing because we really do have the two best Middleweights in the company today. I expect a different look at Adesanya for this fight than the first. I expect a more calculated Izzy and much more gameplan driven. This fight really feels about as 50/50 as it can get even with the odds as they are. I have went back and forth on this fight since it was announced, but I do believe Robert Whittaker shocks the odds makers tonight. He has seemed to accept the first loss and the deficiencies that led to it. I do think we see a more crisp Whittaker tonight that will catch Izzy off guard. While I don't think Whittaker will finish Izzy, i expect a 5 round back and forth for a split decision for Robert Whittaker. Whittaker ML is +235 but he is also +425 to win by points.

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Banger of the Night: Derrick Lewis vs Tai Tuivasa

Did you think I would pick anything else? This fight has banger written all over it and while we have seen heavyweights put up a fight like Ngannout vs Lewis, both of these fighters are coming to end the fight early. The hometown crowd will be going crazy for a vintage Lewis performance and I think he shows out for his fans.

Biggest Chance of Upset: Nasrat Haqparast vs Bobby Green

There are a few underdogs on this card that I give a legitimate chance to win, but I believe Nasrat gets it done and am fairly confident about it as well. Bobby Green has a history of close decision losses - even robbed a few times if you will - and Nasrat has the clear power advantage. Even if he can't finish the fight I feel the power will wear on Bobby Green over 3 rounds for the judges to take notice.

Most to Lose: Robert Whittaker vs Israel Adesanya

There are a few options here, but it truly feels like The Reaper is in a position where he could be reevaluating ALL options if he were to lose again, especially if its another finish. Its clear Whittaker is top 2 in this division and is leaps and bounds ahead of the rest of the division, but it won't matter if he can't get another title shot. While retirement seems rash in that situation, a potential weight change could be in effect for Whittaker to start something new. Whittaker already moved up from Welterweight and its a weird fit a LHW if I am being honest. Its possible Adesanya moves up again and Whittaker can bide time until then beating on the division, but a potential Usman vs Whittaker matchup at Middlewight would be very intriguing. I really question where The Reaper goes from here with a loss.

Most to Gain: Derek Brunson vs Jared Cannonier

You can slot Tai Tuivasa here however Brunson felt like a more natural fit. A win here for either fighter could have a title shot granted and that is the most to gain in the sport after all, outside of money. While both fighters can be used interchangeably here, I do feel this suites Brunson more. His fighting style is not he most exciting even if it does lend wins. This is much easier said than done, but a 3 fight KO streak is more likely to get you in title contention these days than a 5 or 6 fight streak in "boring" fashion. A win here likely solidifies Brunson's resume and has him at least as top 2 in contenders list. A loss could have him fighting back up the rankings so with that type of variance, it felt right to slot Brunson here.

*All bets via bovada.com