UFC 269 Bets and Picks

It seems we say this every Pay Per View weekend with another stacked UFC card however this is the one to end 2021. While there is another time to discuss fighter of the year and other such awards, there is no doubt Poirier has had a big year or two. Poirier and Oliveira are the main attraction here, but this card is stacked down to the prelims and early prelims. I am not just talking either, you know that’s the truth when fighters like Andre Muniz, Miranda Maverick, and Ryan Hall get relegated to the early prelims. The prelims are loaded as well, with Cruz v Munhoz, Sakai v Tuivasa and headlined by Josh Emmett vs Dan Ige. Nearly all these fights could be main card bouts! At this point I am just rambling my excitement so let’s get into the picks.

Sean O’Malley (-350) vs Raulian Paiva (+265)

We are certainly in for some stylin’ and profilin’ in this matchup, as we usually do with each Suga Sean fight. Paiva has some serious BJJ skills, but I expect both fighters to want to strike here and not many can match the skills on the feet that O’Malley has. He has an arsenal of tools with his hands, feet, elbows, and knees that he will fully utilize. The Suga Show is always looking for a highlight reel finish and expect the same here. Paiva will have a moment or two, but I expect another big time Main card opener for Suga Sean. I see a round 2 TKO for Sean O'Malley. Feeling confident in the round choice, O’Malley by KO, TKO, DQ is +110.

Cody Garbrandt (-130) vs Kai Kara France (+111)

This very well could be banger of the night. KKF is always looking to fight in a phone booth and Garbrandt has been prone to an emotional fight like that in the past. This will be the flyweight debut for Garbrandt and while he looked good on the scales Friday morning, we wont truly know how the cut affects him until fight night. KKF has some serious power for the 125 division and while I think Garbrandt has a different level of power, he also has durability questions that I don’t have for Kai Kara France. This is a hell of a debut for the flyweight division, and I expect the cut to be tested for Cody. Garbrandt largely had the speed advantage – by quite a bit – at bantamweight but I expect him to have a serious power advantage in this division. If Garbrandt gets baited into a bar fight type war I don’t expect the chin to hold up. With the weight cut and power KKF possesses he could end the fight. This really can go either way, but I do see Garbrandt winning this by decision. This seems crazy considering both have incredible power for the division, but I see that playing into the others strategy and playing it a tad conservative. Cody Garbrandt ML is -130.

Santiago Ponzinibbio (-115) vs Geoff Neal (-105)

This fight will never get the attention it deserves given its sandwiched between a title fight and the Cody Garbrandt flyweight debut, but this will give us some hard hitters. Both fighters will be looking to keep this on the feet and win in exciting fashion. Ponzinibbio may not be the same as before his lengthy layoff, however he has some intriguing prospects for this division. I do expect the length to give Neal problems, but Geoff Neal has shown he has the power to end this fight early. The odds here match my feelings towards this matchup as both have clear paths to victory. I have gone back and forth on this fight during the lead up, but I have locked in Geoff Neal by 3rd round KO. I believe Geoff Neal understands he needs to place himself back in the contender picture and no better way than a big-time knockout on a stacked fight card. Geoff Neal by KO, TKO, DQ is +175.

Amanda Nunes [c] (-950) vs Julianna Pena (+575)

Another Amanda Nunes fight, another -750+ betting favorite. It really is starting to feel like nobody in the UFC women’s divisions can beat Nunes, and coincidentally that is usually just when those types of legends go down. I know we all remember the talks of Ronda Rousey beating Floyd Mayweather in a boxing match. I say that half-jokingly knowing it really happened, but the legends at some point start to build on themselves. Nunes has started to dominate each opponent they throw her way and since the Cris Cyborg knockout, it seems Nunes has hit a new stratosphere. We know she has knockout power, we know she has incredible BJJ, and we know she can take a punch. But can she out wrestle one of the better wrestlers in the division? Spoiler: I am picking Nunes here, but I think Pena has the tools to make this one of the biggest upsets in the sports’ history. I don’t believe Nunes will be able to simply out muscle Pena but she has the power to end this early. I see Nunes by a round 2 TKO, but if this fight goes the distance Julianna Pena has a legit chance to make this interesting. Given I expect Nunes to win I will stay away from betting her here with that inflated ML, but I will throw some money on Julianna Pena ML at +575. That value is too great for me to not take that chance when I can see the tools Pena has to combat Nunes. If Nunes wins as expected, please set up the Nunes vs Schevchenko trilogy.

Dustin Poirier (-130) vs Charles Oliveira [c] (+111)

I haven’t seen this in a long time, a champion of a lower division being an underdog heading into this matchup. Although, it does make sense with context given most believe Poirier is the best in the division and would be champ had he not accepted the McGregor trilogy. This fight is fascinating to discuss on paper because I believe most would agree with the way the odds are setup, however I also believe most would agree Oliveira has more ways to win this fight. That truly shows how good Poirier really is and how they have both paid their dues. Poirier has great wrestling and its usually an advantage for him but I see the fight hitting the mat as a major advantage for Oliveira. His accredited BJJ makes any fight dangerous on the mat. Poirier will look to keep this fight on the feet as he has the clear power advantage. Charles did knockout Michael Chandler when Gaethje didn’t, but that appeared to have more to do with impressive technique than pure power. That is another reason this fight is so intriguing, as Oliveira is no slouch on the feet. As we know with fighting, you can have all the tools on paper but it rarely ever goes as planned when the octagon doors close. I expect the Poirier power to prevail, with a 2nd round TKO. Charles has a ton of weapons and may very well be Poirier’s biggest challenge outside of Khabib. I also believe Poirier is the best lightweight in the world and he will prove it Saturday night. Charles Oliveira will give Poirier a few chances to end this fight and I see Poirier capitalizing on one of those chances. I question the durability of Charles and if he can withstand a flurry of Poirier punches when hurt. Poirier ML is -130.

Prelims Showcase:

Best prelim fight: Josh Emmett vs Dan Ige

Let’s not get cute here, this fight is clearly main card worthy, and we are just lucky its on the prelims. Emmett hits harder than a truck and Ige has impressive boxing skills and footwork. This could be one of the best fights, main card, or prelims.

Can’t Miss fighter: Tai Tuivasa (v Augusto Sakai)

Tuivasa is fresh off a big knockout of Greg Hardy and is becoming a fan favorite with the shoey gimmick. A contingent of fans in the community dislike Greg Hardy for “outside the octagon” activities so Tuivasa gained fans for knocking him out specifically. Tuivasa is always looking for the knockout and he has a great personality to go with it. Once cut from the UFC, he appears to be making a resurgence in an improving heavyweight division.

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Banger of the Night: Cody Garbrandt vs Kai Kara France

This fight must be fireworks, both fighters’ styles will force at least one to push forward. Garbrandt understands one big performance here could spring him to the title and Kara France knows this is an opportunity to skyrocket with a big name. Garbrandt is still a former champion and either way that works in both fighters favor here. I expect both fighters to live up to expectations

Biggest Chance of Upset: Charles Oliveira (+111) (v Dustin Poirier)

This feels like the easy answer but its easy for a reason. Oliveira has more tools to win this fight and you could argue he will be comfortable anywhere this fight goes. It speaks volumes to his technique that Oliveira could knockout Chandler when Gaethje couldn’t. MMA math never works but its still something to note. Charles continues to be undervalued and his current 9 fight win streak isn’t a fluke. Many of those fights have been won by a finish and he has the most submission wins in UFC history.

Most to Lose: Sean O’Malley (-350) (v Raulian Paiva)

Sean O’Malley is running on an interesting thin line. He has a very exciting fighting style and a gimmick outside the octagon that attracts viewers, friendly or vengeful. He continues to fuel his gimmick by his performances in the octagon but a few losses in a row could have him spiraling quickly. One knock on O’Malley is he hasn’t fought anybody and whether you believe it was a fluke or not (it wasn’t), O’Malley already lost to Marlon Chito Vera. Another loss here to Paiva could have the hype train halted quickly. O’Malley said it himself in interviews this week, without those performances nobody cares. For someone this talented we shouldn’t see a loss until he starts to fight ranked fighters and that’s the risk of continuing to be the “Unranked Champ”.

Most to Gain: Julianna Pena (+575) (v Amanda Nunes)

A win here against seemingly unstoppable Amanda Nunes could have Pena rising to stardom. Like what we saw with Holly Holm after her defeat of Ronda Rousey, Pena would be a household name instantly. As I said above, it always seems the loss to these legends on wild runs come just when we think they are unbeatable. Pena has the tools to get it done here and seems to be the first one in a long time who isn’t afraid of Nunes in any way.