UFC 268 Bets and Picks

I can’t believe its only a week away from UFC267 and we already have arguably a better card for UFC268 headlined by Usman vs Covington 2. Due to coaching, the third featured bout of the card in Justin Gaethje vs Michael Chandler was moved to the card opening fight. We see two rematches with Weili Zhang vs Rose Namajunas and Kamaru Usman vs Colby Covington and both ended in a finish in fight 1. I expect to see excitement all throughout the main card as a Shane Burgos fight is always guaranteed violence and legend Frankie Edgar looks to prove he is still here with the young guns. Lots to discuss so let’s jump right into it.

Justin Gaethje (-210) vs Michael Chandler (+170)

I mentioned above that any Shane Burgos fight is violence, but this fight is absolute violence in its purest form.

“Show me my equal!” – Justin Gaethje after knocking out Michael Johnson

I believe Michael Chandler is his equal in terms of violence and willing to come forward for a fight. There are technical aspects of this fight, but this truly is who can withstand the others best shot tonight. Michael Chandler discussed prefight how he wasn’t going to step back first and its only helped the build up of the fight. If you are like me and are here for violence, don’t miss this fight. This truly does feel like a 50/50 fight because both are going towards the finish, but I see Gaethje having too much power and winning by 2nd round TKO. Justin Gaethje by KO or TKO in round 2 or 3 is +350.

Shane Burgos (-200) vs Billy Quarantillo (+160)

Its an absolute gift from the UFC to follow up Gaethje vs Chandler with Burgos vs Bill Q. Both fighters will be looking to brawl and keep the fight on the feet. I think Burgos has the power advantage here and has a loaded arsenal on offense, but his striking defense leaves something to be desired. Billy Q does have the edge on the ground as a proficient BJJ artist so if this fight gets to the mat it could be a chance for finish for Billy Q. I expect this fight to end in a decision for Shane Burgos at -200 ML. This is likely a fight I would pair with in a parlay, maybe add it to the “Trevor Wittman Parlay”. I do expect this to be a fantastic fight so there is nothing wrong with not betting anything and just enjoying the fight.

Marlon Vera (-155) vs Frankie Edgar (+130)

Unfortunately, there is a chance for a letdown here but it’s strictly because it follows Gaethje vs Chandler and Burgos vs Billy Q. This is a great matchup however, and we know styles make fights. Frankie Edgar is a legend, but he is 2-4 in his last 6 fights and is already 40 years old. Age is not your friend in this sport and not everyone can fight even to 35. It should be noted the losses are from Sandhagen, Korean Zombie, Holloway, and Brian Ortega. This is a noticeable step down in competition, so I expect a better performance tonight. That being said, Chito Vera is looking to jump back on the scene after a loss to Jose Aldo and he has the tools to make this a tough fight for Edgar. I expect this to go the distance with Marlon Vera winning a decision at -155 ML. I don’t believe Vera has the power to KO Frankie, but the leg kicks will prove to be a problem. I am hoping Frankie Edgar can get an exciting matchup in the future to go out on a win for the fans. No matter what happens, Frankie Edgar is a UFC Hall of Famer.

Rose Namajunas [c] (+105) vs Weili Zhang (-125)

I am not going to lie; I was surprised to see Rose Namajunas as an underdog here when the lines came out. Rose may have won early with a “Fluke” knockout (not a fluke, by the way) in the first fight but she has clear advantages that can be exploited. Not only is she a threat to end the fight on the ground, but she has the power to end the fight in one shot and that will unfortunately be in the back of the mind of Weili Zhang. Weili has the power advantage but as Conor McGregor said, “Timing beats speed and precision beats power” and Rose may be one of the most technically sound strikers in all of the UFC, men and women. Rose also has the footwork to continue to keep this fight at a distance and unlike a lot of fighters with a reach advantage, she knows how to use that to her advantage. Even with these advantages Rose possesses, Weili has serious power that you don’t see in this division. I also worry about a 5-round fight for Rose given how reliant her game is on footwork. Although I don’t see it as a negative for either fighter, I am much more worried about Rose’s cardio than I am Weili. If Zhang can continue to make this a brawl over 5 rounds she can have a chance to not only win a decision but finish the fight on strikes. I see this fight ending with a Rose TKO in the 3rd round. Eventually I do think Rose will use her distance and almost point fight for a few rounds, before putting on the pressure and ultimately ending the fight by strikes. Rose has incredible technique and footwork, so it truly is a performance every time she steps into the octagon. Rose by TKO/KO or Weili Zhang by decision is +110 to hedge your bets. Rose Namajunas by Round 2 or 3 TKO is +900.

Kamaru Usman [c] (-300) vs Colby Covington (+235)

As much as I wanted a rematch at the time, I am thankful this fight didn’t formulate until a mere two years after the first instant classic of a fight. We all know the progress Usman has shown, especially in his jab and striking overall. Since his transition to Colorado with Trevor Wittman, he has started to finish fights and look even sharper on the feet. Anytime you are named as the first person to ever knock our Jorge Masvidal, you deserve all due credit. I don’t believe we should underplay the improvements Colby Covington made in this time as well. He doesn’t have the octagon appearances like Usman to prove it as he only fought Woodley since his TKO loss to Usman but the change in gyms has changed the strategy. Lets be honest, the Woodley that Colby fought was done and didn’t have anything left to offer the sport. A champion at one time he deserves respect, but his flaws played right into what made Covington look good. In other words, the matchup was brutal for Woodley. In the leadup of the fight Covington has talked about these coaches and how emotional he was in fight 1. I truly believe those two had a mutual understanding in fight one that they were there to go mono e mono on the feet and end it the old school way. Usman proved to be too much in fight 1, although I expect a different fight completely. Usman had a lot of success going to the body in fight 1 so with another chance to work in a plan I see the body work being a highlight of that game plan. Originally I thought Usman would knockout Covington early and make it look easy but seeing wrestling and clinch work from both is going to change the dynamic of this fight completely. Dare I say, this will be better than the first fight? I truly believe that, because both fighters I expect to stick to a game plan and there is a reason Covington is the worst matchup for Usman in the division and its not because of his hands. Covington has admitted in the first fight he had his hands down often and did not stick to the game plan well. While I still see there being a scenario where Usman gets the finish again, I believe he will have to work much harder for it than last time. I expect both fighters to be more polished on the feet and to see much more wrestling in this rematch. I will take Kamaru Usman by decision for +175. I truly expect this to be fight of the night and if you’re a bettor, you must take the Trevor Wittman parlay with winners of Justin Gaethje, Rose Namajunas, and Kamaru Usman.

Banger of the Night: Shane Burgos vs Billy Q

While its easy to throw Gaethje vs Chandler here, I don’t expect that fight to last long, but I expect Burgos vs Billy Q to go the distance with 3 rounds of straight violence. Shane Burgos never disappoints and even though he lacks striking defense, it leads to plenty of fan friendly fights. Don’t think for a second there will be a lull following Chandler vs Gaethje.

Biggest Chance of an Upset: Michael Chandler (v Justin Gaethje)

There are a few picks here as the matchups on this main card are fantastic, but this fight feels as 50/50 as you can get. Both fighters are looking to end the fight early and both are willing to put themselves in harms way to make that happen. Not only do their fight histories show this to be true, the entire lead up both have mentioned they won’t step back and Gaethje has mentioned lately he expects Chandler to become a wrestler and shoot early after he feels his power. I don’t believe Chandler would avoid wrestling as the fight goes on as he has a clear advantage there, but I don’t expect this fight to make it that far.

Most to Lose: Frankie Edgar (v Marlon “Chito” Vera)

As stated above, Frankie Edgar is 2-4 in his last 6 and this is his third division of his career. The community was concerned with a move to bantamweight, although those worries were proven wrong, I just don’t see another division change as an option. He is 40 years old and ranked 8 in an already stacked division. With a loss to the 13th ranked fighter it could have Edgar spiraling down the rankings and a sudden fear of being cut. Frankie is a legend, but that didn’t stop the likes of Junior Dos Santos or Yoel Romero from being cut. The UFC has made it clear if a fighter is older and has no path to the title they are more likely to cut them. With the constant contracts being sent out from Dana White’s Contender Series, these older fighters are much more at risk.

Most to Gain: Colby Covington (v Kamaru Usman)

It’s nearly a cop out to choose a contender here in a title fight, but most of these main card fights are set. A win by Gaethje and especially Chandler doesn’t automatically guarantee a title shot with Islam looming and neither Burgos nor Billy Q will be put into title contention with a win. Covington is likely on his last title fight with Usman as title holder and it doesn’t appear anyone is taking that title from Usman currently. Covington is a matchup nightmare for a large chunk of the division, and I do believe he is the second-best fighter in the division behind Usman. Not a lot of fans like Colby so a title win could have him unintentionally becoming one of the most watched champions on the roster. That bold and brash style hardly wins over fans but often brings in the viewers. He has an opportunity in front of him that doesn’t appear to be available again in the UFC if he were to lose.

Prelims Must Watch: Alex Pereira vs Andreas Michailidis

I know, I know, but I must mention it. Alex Pereira enters his UFC debut with momentum, given he has beaten current Middleweight champ Israel Adesanya not only once, but twice and once by knock out outside of the UFC. Okay now that that’s out of the way, this is a great stylistic matchup. Pereira is a credentialed kickboxer who trains with current LHW champ Glover Teixeira, but Michailidis has great wrestling and a BJJ black belt. They really wanted to test Pereira early in his debut and if all goes well, I expect the UFC to make a push with Pereira like what we saw with Paulo Costa. The UFC noticed just a few fights in that those two (Costa and Adesanya) would bring numbers and brought both fighters up accordingly for a massive bout later down the line. I fully expect the same thing here and a quick knockout is certainly possible. Ragin Al vs Bobby Green is also a pretty decent fight but Pereira is a prospect to watch here.