UFC 270 Bets and Picks

Well, the UFC is finally back! It seemed like this particular break was one of the longest in recent memory but that's also probably recency bias. Modern day UFC coverage means we rarely go multiple weekends without UFC fights so even 3-4 weeks has us fans fiending for violence. With increased PPV prices being in the news this week, this card certainly doesn't play the part of an increased price PPV. Dana himself noted those are not his decisions to make and he particularly hates them himself, but that simply puts the demand on ESPN and the UFC for making each PPV ticket worth the price jump. While we lost a great potential matchup with the Ilia Topuria fight being canceled the Co main and main events are just what was needed to have fans back. One of the greatest, if not the greatest, heavyweight matchup of all time and a trilogy for the flyweight belt. Its hard to beat that one-two punch so lets jump right into it.

Trevin Giles (-110) vs Michael Morales (-110)*

This is as even as a matchup can get as the odds indicate it being an even split across the board. This is a great fight to open the main card as both fighters will be looking to get this on the feet and to create a name for themselves. Giles is coming off a TKO loss to prospect Dricus Du Plessis and Morales will be coming off an exciting Contender Series win. I expect some sloppy moments and likely both will give their opponent a chance or two to finish the fight. I like Tevin Giles ML at -110, to win by a decision. This is a fight you likely skip the bets and simply enjoy.

Michel Pereira (-290) vs Andre Fialho (+230)

With not a lot of information on Andre Fialho as he will be making his UFC octagon debut, this really feels like the Michel Pereira show. He always garners so much attention pre-fight for his unique personality and somehow even more unique fighting style but this surely is a boost from the promotion. Fialho is a former Bellator, LFA, and PFL fighter with plenty of knockouts to his name. While this is hardly a layup, this will be an exciting style matchup for the fans with a chance for either fighter to add another to the highlight reel. Both fighters will be looking for a finish here and I really don't see this fighting making the distance, even in 3 rounds. I like Pereira by knockout in the 3rd round. Pereira by knockout is +185

Said Nurmagomedov (-200) vs Cody Stamann (+162)

When I first saw this fight, I was surprised to see the odds the way that they were. Said Nurmagomedov has a style that is tough to beat and he has some real power in his hands but he has not fought since 2020 and that was a KO victory over Marc Striegl. Both have a clear path to victory here as Stamann loves to wrestle and control his opponents and Nurmagomedov will look to keep this fight on the feet. Nurmagomedov is facing a big step up in competition here and a win could have him in the rankings come Monday morning. However, I see the experience of Stamann and the wrestling to be a bit too much. I see a Cody Stamann decision for the upset with lots of ground control and ground & pound. This could be the underdog performance that shoots Stamann back in title contention. Cody Stamann ML is +162

Brandon Moreno (-186) vs Deiveson Figueiredo (+155)

This is a fascinating fight and although I don't exactly buy the animosity from Figgy in this build up, I am excited to see the trilogy. Fights one and two couldn't be more different. Although fight one was a draw, I believe most fans would agree Figgy won that fight with a point deduction leading to a draw. As clear as I believe that first fight to be, Moreno made it even more clear in fight two with a submission win to capture the belt. Figgy has made it public he struggled with the weight cut to 125 in the past so I see that being a big part of the equation here. He has looked fantastic in the leadup and there don't appear to be any visible issues to this point. Moreno looked very skilled in their brief grappling exchanges in both fights and I don't see either fighter with the clear advantage there. Figgy will prove to have the edge with power on the feet but its clear through two fights that Moreno can take the power. I expect a fight similar to what we saw in fight one with more of a back and forth. Generally that means I take the fighter with the power edge as it can tend to wear on the opponent more over 5 rounds but I see a Brandon Moreno decision over 5 rounds to defend the Flyweight Title. I also expect a subsequent move to 135 for Figueiredo as he has the power that will translate a move up. I expect this to be early fight of the year candidate and will have us buzzing heading into the main event.....

Cyril Gane (-145) vs Francis Ngannou (+120)

My first thought here betting wise is "Ngannou plus money, yes please". This is still the case, but spoiler: I am picking Cyril Gane to win this fight but I also advise everyone reading this to bet on plus money Ngannou as the chance for a knockout is too great to pass that opportunity up. We could talk all day about the skills that Gane possesses that will give Francis trouble. His footwork specifically, his own power, and muay thai skills to keep it mixed up as a few quick examples. Gane has a set of skills that you may see on a welterweight or middleweight. There isn't anything in the octagon that Gane can't defend or show on the offensive end. The reality is, when you fight Ngannou most of that doesn't matter. We could see Gane outclass Ngannou on the feet, make him chase Gane around the octagon gassed all night, but we could see a Francis KO in the last 5 seconds of round 5 just as Derrick Lewis did to Volkov. That is what makes you appreciate Stipe's first performance vs Ngannou. Ngannou, unfortunately for the division, is much better now because of that loss. To put it simply, Ngannou has the power of bonk and there truly is no defense for this. I say all of this while also reminding you, I am picking Cyril Gane to win this fight by 5th round TKO. I do expect Gane to outclass Ngannou on the feet for nearly 5 rounds, taking a few shots in the progress. There is no evidence to show Gane can genuinely take a few shots from Francis but Gane knows that power unlike many that have stepped in the octagon with him and I do consider that an advantage. I have not fully subscribed to the theory that we have unleashed "Patient Francis" as we saw in the second Stipe fight. As the fight goes on I believe we see a Ngannou that gets tired and far less patient or technical. I believe Francis understands as most fans do that his path to victory here is a stone cold KO and I expect his performance to reflect that. At this time, I am picking Gane to win and betting Ngannou. Man, I love MMA.

---

Banger of the Night: Michel Pereira vs Andre Fialho

This fight is destined to be absolute fireworks as both fighters will be looking for a flashy finish and to make a bigger name for themselves. Pereira is already known by fans with an octagon reputation to uphold and Fialho is looking to jump on the radar of fans with a finish that we will be seeing all over social media for the next week. Don't miss this one

Biggest Chance of Upset: Cody Stamann (+162) vs Said Nurmagomedov

Its hard not to take the only underdog pick of the main card here, but there is a clear path to victory here for Stamann. I do not expect the most highlight reel of fights here but I do expect Stamann to get the job done with a decision win.

Most to Lose: Deiveson Figueiredo vs Brandon Moreno

How the MMA world changes fast, Figgy went from being a flyweight champion that many didn't think would lose, to being in a "Most to Lose" section. The reality is a loss here puts Figgy in a tough spot for the flyweight belt shot in the near future. A loss here likely leads to a division change and now a spot where he has to prove himself in a new division. The path off a loss is likely from title challenger to climbing the ladder again in a new division.

Most to Gain: Francis Ngannou vs Cyril Gane

This may seem a bit dramatic given Francis is already heavyweight champion, but the championship reign for Ngannou has not been a particularly smooth one. With issues with management and the UFC contract talks, the discussion during his reign rarely had to do with his octagon performances. Francis is likely in a win-win situation here. The UFC has the UFC title stipulation in all contracts that once a fighter wins the title (or defends their title) they are automatically extended for another fight. With a win, Ngannou has all the backing that he is a draw and is clearly the champion to build around for the company. With a loss, Ngannou is no longer stuck under contract with the UFC and can explore all other options, which includes boxing or even resigning with the UFC under a more "Francis-friendly" deal. It doesn't appear Ngannou can lose here.