UFC 267 Bets and Picks

The UFC is finally back! It seems it’s been months since we have had a numbered UFC event and it comes back with a bang. Not only is the main card loaded with prospects, great matchups, and future stars, but the prelims also bring some big names like Amanda Ribas, Benoit St-Denis, and Andre Petroski from the latest installment of the Ultimate Fighter. I will also always tune into a Makwan Amirkhani fight. We see the long-awaited return of Khamzat Chimaev in an absolute banger of a matchup with The Leech. So much to discuss, lets jump right into it.

-Photo via BTSport

Magomed Ankalaev (-300) vs Volkan Oezdemir

These fighters have had very different success lately, with Ankalaev on a 6-fight win streak and Oezdemir losing 4 of his last 6. Magomed Ankalaev has a few advantages in this fight most importantly in wrestling and speed. He is faster than Volkan in almost every move he makes so there is small margin for error for Oezdemir in this fight. Although both have enough knockout power to end this fight, Ankalaev feels especially dangerous given the combination of his power as well as his speed advantage over Volkan. I see Ankalaev being too much of a threat for takedown and with the speed advantage, I expect a 2nd round TKO for Ankalaev. The ML is the safe play but at -300, the value here will be Ankalaev for KO, TKO, or DQ at +105.

Khamzat Chimaev (-650) vs Li Jingliang “The Leech”

My first initial thoughts on this fight are, wow the line on Chimaev is steep. Spoiler: I am picking Chimaev here, but I think Vegas is underrating Jingliang quite a bit here. He is tough, has the power to end this fight in one punch, and will be considerably better on the ground than past Chimaev opponents. It’s also important to note the tough battle Chimaev had with COVID. There were questions whether he would ever fight again so it will be interesting to see him back in the octagon following that event.

“I was doing good at first, then they told me I could start cardio training and I felt sick again. I went to the bathroom and started coughing up blood. That just messed up my mind a bit. Honestly, it scared me... Cancer? Like, I have been sick for so long, why doesn’t it go away? Different thoughts were going through my mind, plus I was alone there in Las Vegas, struggling to overcome it all.” Said Chimaev, when asked about a social media post appearing to retire.

I don’t see Chimaev getting a finish here after this tough battle and time out of the octagon, but I do see the combination of his wrestling, pressure and power being too much over 3 rounds for Li Jingliang. If the Leech is going to win this fight I see it by a finish. Given the odds on Chimaev this is likely a fight I stay away from betting wise unless you’re live betting. Khamzat Chimaev by a convincing 3 round decision.

Alexander Volkov (-300) vs Marcin Tybura

Marcin Tybura enters this fight on 5 fight winning streak and the last two coming by way a finish, against arguably the best competition of the winning streak. Volkov is 3-2 in his last 5, but he was fighting the best of the best with losses coming from Curtis Blaydes and most recently interim champ Ciryl Gane. Alexander Volkov is a -300 favorite for a reason, and I see his length and striking ability to be too much. Tybura will likely try to get this fight to the mat and wrestle for three rounds, but Volkov has been tested by much better wrestlers in this division. I see Volkov winning this by a unanimous decision. This division doesn’t go to the score cards often, so you get more value by choosing Volkov by decision (+185) than you do Volkov by KO, TKO, DQ (+105). I would likely stay away from a ML bet here as the same reason above given the odds on Volkov.

Islam Makhachev (-650) vs Dan Hooker

Islam Makhachev is regarded as the “new and improved” Khabib with the close ties, similar wrestling pressure gameplan, and Dagestan background. Islam is regarded as the better striker of the two and where he may lack the technical positioning of Khabib, his submission abilities seem to be improved from that of Khabib. Dan Hooker appeared to be one of the top lightweights in the world after his fight with Dustin Poirier, however the loss the Michael Chandler really shot him down the rankings. They are both taking the fight on short notice after Rafael Dos Anjos backed out due to injury, however Dan Hooker seems to be at the disadvantage given the gameplan of Makhachev not changing much from opponent to opponent. With everything stated above, I am going to take Dan Hooker by 2nd round TKO at +700. Not only do the odds entice me, but I truly feel Dan Hooker is ready for this matchup and about to shock the world. That may seem a bit dramatic, but the odds show you just how much Dan Hooker is being counted out for this fight. The hype around Islam is also proven given the number 5 ranking with the best win being Thiago Moises. I believe just as many in the MMA community that Islam Makhachev is a future Lightweight champion of the UFC, I just don’t think it’s quite yet. I expect this to be a great fight for as long as it lasts and if it goes 3 rounds, it’s unlikely Dan Hooker is the winner. Islam has such impressive grappling that this could turn into a very long night for Dan Hooker if he doesn’t take the finish. This is why we love MMA; anything can happen!

Petr Yan (-210) vs Cory Sandhagen

In my opinion, this is the best fight on the entire card. One of the most technical matchups of the year, the differences in striking styles really intrigue me. Petr Yan hasn’t found an opponent he can’t break down or finish yet in the UFC, but Cory Sandhagen brings a style that can cause some damage to Yan. Not only does Sandhagen possess the ability to KO anyone in one shot, but his style can also be tough to figure out for someone who often depends on reading their opponent over the course of the fight like Petr Yan. We also saw the hilarious exchange during face offs when Petr Yan failed to make Sandhagen flinch. Cory Sandhagen with the Kobe Bryant energy at the end of fight week is exactly why he has looked so different since the Aljamain Sterling loss. He has come out much more aggressive and looking for the finish. While he did lose to TJ Dillashaw in his last fight, it was a controversial decision that didn’t lose him much stature in the rankings, if at all, evident by being in the interim title fight off the loss. This fight is so fascinating that I might avoid betting just to enjoy it for what it is. However, I am a man of the people and believe Cory Sandhagen wins by 3rd round TKO. I think Sandhagen is a different fighter with this adjusted mindset, and I believe he learned a few key details from that Dillashaw fight that will come in handy versus Yan. Yan is often stationary – reading his opponent – and that can open some holes for Sandhagen to exploit with his arsenal of strikes on the feet. If this fight goes into the championship rounds I see that as a massive advantage for Yan and don’t see a Sandhagen decision in the cards. At least not enough to put money down on it. This is a fantastic fight, and I don’t think the loser will be out of the picture, regardless of who it is.

Jan Blachowicz (-290) vs Glover Texeira

Do either of these fighters have to lose? I mean both are such great guys and you don’t want to see either lose, especially Glover considering this is likely his last title shot. Being on a recent surge of 5 straight wins he was the clear decision as number one contender. In some of the UFC Embedded videos released to YouTube throughout fight week, Glover points to this success as being more determined to do what is necessary to be a champion. This is likely in terms of dedication and discipline and its working. Both are very talented on the ground as jiu-jitsu black belts, and both also have knockout power. Glover is ready to admit it any time you ask him, he is looking for the finish. Over 40 years old, its rare to be so dangerous on the feet given how talented young fighters continue to become but power is the last thing to go, as they say. I expect Jan to keep this fight on the feet to use his range and patent Polish Power to pick Glover apart. As he stated at the press conference, Glover WILL take down Blachowicz but Jan has a very powerful center of gravity and has shown to have good takedown defense because of it. I expect a very good fight and the toughness of Glover to really show here. I expect there to be moments when we think Jan can end the fight but ultimately see this going to a decision. Blachowicz by decision +250. If Yan vs Sandhagen wasn’t on this card the main event would run away as best fight. Us fight fans got lucky because the Main and Co-Main are shaping up to be fantastic fights.

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Banger of the Night: Yan vs Sandhagen

While I only have this fight going three rounds, I expect those 3 rounds to be an absolute treat. Both fighters will be looking to keep this on the feet, and both want the finish to put a cap on becoming Interim Champ. Sandhagen has a renewed mindset that is proven in his octagon aggression and Yan desperately wants his belt back. Thankfully, they also both happen to be two of the best 3 or 4 in the division. There is no way this fight disappoints, period.

Biggest Chance of an Upset: Glover Texeira vs Jan Blachowicz

Its funny this is the choice given there are only two picks above where I chose the upset, and this isn’t one of them. Jan hasn’t gotten the respect he deserves and even after beating Adesanya he doesn’t deserve to be here. This has more to do with Glover than Jan as this will be the absolute last title run for Texeira and I don’t expect him to pull a Yoel Romero and claim the champion must come to him in his last title fight. Some say its almost destiny for Glover and while I don’t necessarily believe that, this is a lot more of an even matchup than the odds have it. There are a few big betting favorites on this main card, but Glover has a legit shot to win this fight by a decision or a finish.

Most to Lose: Islam Makhachev vs Dan Hooker

This may seem a little dramatic given Islam is the 5th ranked fighter, but he is largely there due to the Khabib connection. I don’t necessarily disagree with the ranking because I do believe he is likely among the top 5 in this division or close to it, but the resume for a top 5 ranked fighter isn’t there. If Islam isn’t quite ready to take on the mantle Khabib left behind, it could have him fighting his way back up the ladder again. A tough loss here could have some of the fans or promotion wondering if he was advanced too quickly similar to the push Darren Till received early in his career after a Donald Cerrone win. I still believe Islam is a future Lightweight champion, but a loss could set him back considerably here in a stacked division.

Most to Gain: Li Jingliang vs Khamzat Chimaev

Li Jingliang may not be known by some casual viewers, but he always brings the excitement and a win over budding star Khamzat Chimaev could put him squarely on the radar of most if not all UFC fans. Especially with a fast knockout, he could get a considerable push from the UFC. The Leech brings an exciting fight style and currently only lacks a resume or a big win and no bigger opportunity than the 2020 Breakout Fighter of the Year.

Prelim’s Must Watch: Makwan Amirkhani vs Lerone Murphy

Lerone Murphy is the favorite here at -310 and both fighters are looking to finish here. Amirkhani has submission skills that can really make Murphy caution the takedown, whereas Lerone Murphy has the power to end this fight on the feet. I do expect Lerone Murphy to win this fight by decision, but you can never count out Amirkhani and both have styles to excite.

*All bets via Bovada.com