UFC 266 Bets and Picks

The last big UFC PPV was only last month, but I almost feel deprived of UFC action, and they return to an absolute loaded main card again. The RETURN of legend Nick Diaz with a great matchup with Robbie Lawler. Volkanovski looks to finally gain the respect he deserves with improving Brian Ortega on deck and Valentina Schevchenko looks to force a trilogy matchup with Amanda Nunes by adding another name to her legacy list. We will only be making picks for the main card, but its hard to not mention the two prelim fights with Dan Hooker v Nasrat and Merab v Marlon Moraes. I expect Merab and Dan Hooker to win each prelim fight, but they are very interesting matchups respectively. Let’s jump right into the picks

Jessica Andrade (-210) vs Cynthia Calvillo*

This is a very interesting matchup for Andrade as she only fights the best of the best (last three losses are to Rose Namajunas, Valentina, and Weili) but she isn’t in the immediate title picture and a loss could have her fighting back up the ladder by a few fights. Andrade certainly has the edge on the feet, as she usually does, but surrenders the mat to Calvillo when it comes to wrestling and jiu jitsu. Calvillo is coming off a loss back in November 2020 to Katlyn Chookagian and the competition lately just does not add up when compared to Andrade. Calvillo will certainly look to get this fight to the mat, but Andrade has good take down defense and certainly won’t make it easy. I see this fight going to decision as Calvillo is tough as nails, but Andrade gets it done on the feet with an easy looking UD for -210 ML. For anyone willing, Calvillo by submission is +650

Curtis Blaydes (-325) vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik

These are the exact type of matchups that get fans excited, the stylistic matchups that truly clash. Blaydes is a wrestler, and he wants you to know it. He isn’t afraid to make the fight boring at the goal of a win as well as throwing in the occasional ground and pound when necessary. Once thought to be the kryptonite to Ngannou – which isn’t the case anymore – Blaydes looks to get back on track to title contention. Both fighters are on a similar path and the loser could find himself at the bottom of a division with many young up and comers. Rozenstruik only has two losses in the UFC, and they are to current champ Francis Ngannou and interim champ Cyril Gane. The fact that Rozenstruik finds himself as a +250 underdog is a credit to that stylistic matchup. Rozenstruik is a kickboxer and willing to strike with anybody, but Blaydes is looking to chain wrestle for that full 25 minutes. In a stylistic clash at this level anything can happen, but I see Blaydes getting his way and making this a 25-minute wrestling match. In the famous words of legend Daniel Cormier “Better bring your wrestling shoes!”. There is one thing that worries me about Blaydes, and it’s his willingness to strike with opponents at times. It’s possible that’s just an effort to mix things up, but it’s rare for a heavyweight to have the footwork and take down defense technique to defend the wrestling Blaydes uses. If Blaydes decides to strike with Rozenstruik it could be a quick KO. However, I see Blaydes by decision with ML -325.

Robbie Lawler (-115) vs Nick Diaz

Finally, the return of the legend Nick Diaz!! What a fantastic style matchup the UFC granted its fans. While Nick Diaz expressed displeasure in the person in charge of setting this up in some media day interviews, this is better than the earlier discussed matchup of Khamzat Chimaev. Lawler is someone who will come to fight, same as Diaz. This will be guaranteed fireworks and maybe we won’t see the old Nick Diaz, but we will see some of those old Nick Diaz tactics we all miss. This fight is impossible to predict and overall, I recommend not betting this fight at all and watching as a fan from the couch. We don’t know how many fights we have left of the Diaz brothers and its best to enjoy them when we can. That said, if you truly need a bet for this fight its hard to trust a Nick Diaz pick. Unless you’re in his camp, you don’t have any evidence to base the pick off. I would pick Lawler by decision just because both guys are just so damn tough. Lawler ML is -115.

Valentina Schevchenko (-1800) vs Lauren Murphy ©

I mean what do you say about this matchup? You will see the usual stuff during fight week that Lauren Murphy is tough and durable and is something Valentina has never seen. I believe all these things to be true, but the betting line is at -1800 for a reason. Lauren Murphy is on a red hot 5 fight win streak and has looked great in doing so. She has given this women’s division something to get excited about. Unfortunately, as with the case with ¾ of the women’s divisions, a run like that leads you straight to the title whether you’re ready or not. I think Lauren Murphy has a shot to make things difficult for Valentina, but she is just such a skilled martial artist. There always comes a point in a dominant run like this where you start to feel like the fighter is invincible and won’t lose soon. We saw it with Rousey, Joanna Champion, but it doesn’t feel like we are at that point yet. Amanda Nunes also has yet to hit that mark, so it seems the Nunes vs Schevchenko trilogy is bound to happen. This is not a fight I recommend betting on unless it’s a long shot for Lauren Murphy or live betting. Valentina Schevchenko by 4th round TKO is my prediction for this fight but the O/U for rounds is 2.5. Valentina to win by KO, TKO or DQ is -150.

Alexander Volkanovski (-185) vs Brian Ortega ©

After the Ultimate Fighter and delay of the fight originally due to the current champ Volkanovski getting covid, we are finally here! This much anticipated title fight in one of the top divisions right now has people split on who to choose. Volkanovski is still trying to gain respect off back-to-back wins against Max Holloway (controversial, sure) and Brian Ortega is looking to capitalize on his second chance at the belt. Volkanovski thrives off adjusting mid fight and you saw that after getting dropped in both rounds 1 and 2 in the second fight with Holloway and still managing to win the fight on the score cards. Volk is fantastic at countering and interrupting the rhythm of his opponents. He isn’t known for his finishes but has power on the feet to make it happen as we saw against Chad Mendes. Even with such little fight experience compared to some in the UFC, Volkanovski has great fight IQ and is tough as nails. Ortega is fresh off a big win against Korean Zombie, after a multiple year layoff following his title fight loss to Max Holloway. Ortega has said to reinvent his game, his training, and his discipline to his full bag of skills. Ortega will always be a jiu jitsu master under the Gracie name, but he began his career in boxing and has taken back to those roots to become more well-rounded. He showed slick footwork and hands in that Korean Zombie fight with a few knockdowns and even one by elbow. While I still give Volk the edge on the feet, the ability mix it up for Ortega makes things very dangerous. Ortega doesn’t have the wrestling alone to just shoot for a single or double leg on Volkanovski and expect to have success, but we did see Ortega use feints in the form of a takedown attempt to get Korean Zombie off edge. Ortega looks much improved, and it also leads you to question how much he has improved since his layoff with Korean Zombie. Ortega reached a title fight essentially “winging it” in training and personal life, so there is much to imagine once the discipline and focus are on check with his set of skills. It should be noted as we mentioned with Volkanovski, he does a great job of controlling the octagon and messing up the timing of his opponents. This is not something Ortega faced with Korean Zombie so it remains to be seen who’s “best” is truly best on Saturday. I don’t expect Ortega to have nearly the amount of success with Volk as he did with Zombie, but I believe his ability to mix it up and not be afraid of the takedown will be a massive advantage. This fight truly is as 50/50 as it gets as Volk is a true professional champion and will bring it in the championship rounds if it makes it there. My prediction for this fight is Ortega to win by submission in round 3. I don’t believe Ortega will be able to take Volk down, even after multiple attempts, but I see a scenario where Ortega is able to rock or drop Volkanovski and wrap him up in a guillotine for a finish. Both fighters are looking for a finish here so it will be interesting to see if one of them makes a mistake in pursuit of that finish. Brian Ortega to win by submission is +350. As I do see it truly being a 50/50 fight, you can also hedge your bets with a Brian Ortega to win by sub or Volkanovski to win by points for -120.

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Banger of the night: Dan Hooker vs Nasrat Haqparast

Have we seen Kelvin Gastelum and Nasrat in the same room together? Seriously. Anyways, this fight will be absolute fireworks on the prelims that nobody can miss. Dan Hooker has an incredible chin and great volume whereas Nasrat has a simple striking plan with devastating power. I don’t see any wrestling happening here and don’t expect a decision win either. I expect Dan Hooker to win by TKO but this fight will be absolute fireworks.

Biggest Chance of Upset: Brian Ortega vs Alexander Volkanovski

This is not a great card for betting or underdogs, so of course the one underdog I choose is where we go here. While I think there are other underdogs with a legit chance like Rozenstruik, this fight is truly 50/50 and I can see a scenario where both fighters can win multiple ways. I think either way this will be a great fight and we have a chance to end the night with a new champion.

Most to Lose: Marlon Moraes vs Merab Dvalishvili

What a fall from grace for Marlon Moraes from knocking out Aljo Sterling cold, to a rough title fight with Henry Cejudo and a few knockouts in a row. Moraes has been exposed in terms of his chin and gas tank and doesn’t appear to be at the level of the top guys in this division. Bantamweight is another stacked division and Moraes has a lot to prove here. A win doesn’t vault him very far ahead of his current position, but a loss could have him on the fringe of being cut. That sounds insane which such a talent but not many fighters make it out the other end of a losing skid consisting of losing 4 of 5. It could also be argued that decision win against Jose Aldo was a bad judge’s decision as Aldo went on to fight for the title off the back of that loss.

Most to gain: Lauren Murphy vs Valentina Schevchenko

Okay, this does seem like a bit of a cop out answer as of course the +850 underdog has the most to gain, but its true and a lot of these fights on the card are more about keeping your spot rather than moving up. There is a log jam at the heavyweight spot, so the HW fight on the card doesn’t move anyone closer to a title bout. Lauren Murphy can make an instant name for herself in one of the biggest upsets in the sports history. Valentina is on a roll right now and looks truly unbeatable as Vegas shows with a -1800 ML for Valentina. You could argue Holly Holm is still getting fights off the back of that Rousey win and Murphy would be in a situation like that.