UFC 265 Bets & Predictions

After the fight card the UFC delivered for UFC264, we were certain for a letdown. Yet here we are with again one of the best cards of the year top to bottom. The star power at the top, and to have the luxury of starting the main card with two young, exciting fighters. Not to mention one of the risers in the Lightweight division stuck on the prelims. As always, we will look at predictions for the main card fights, but will switch it up with a few “category” picks at the end.

-Photo via insidesport.com

Casey Kenney (-115) vs Song Yadong*

This appears to be gearing for fight of the night and I fully expect a banger of a fight. Both fighters coming off losses and looking to get back on the winning track in exciting fashion. It will be interesting to see the type of pace both these fighters will be able to keep up with. If Kenney can get this fight to the ground it could spell a long one for Song, however the power coming from Song Yadong I believe will prove to be too much. I see Song Yadong by second round TKO for +330. Song has already shown a willingness to check a leg kick with a power right overhand and leg kicks are a large part of Kenney’s game.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRqWcanEIbw

Tecia Torres (-140) vs Angela Hill

Angela Hill has had an up and down UFC career, but she opened her first UFC stint with 3 of her first 4 fights against Carla Esparza, Rose Namajunas and Tecia Torres. She followed that up with becoming the Invicta FC champ and earning a second UFC shot. Hill is extremely active and willing to fight anyone in the division, anytime. Tecia Torres is an exciting and strong fighter and she being the 10th ranked fighter shows how far the women’s divisions have come. While I expect Angela Hill to out strike Torres in volume, I also think Tecia Torres will have the more impactful and damaging shots, leading to a close split decision win for Torres ML at -140. This is a fantastic matchup in a stacked division that isn’t getting enough love.

Vicente Luque (-120) vs Michael Chiesa

Styles make fights right? Well, what an incredible stylistic matchup we have as the third fight on the main card. Luque has one of the best chins in the entire organization and is willing to brawl with anybody, whereas Chiesa can take anyone down to the mat, and hold them there, after a rejuvenated run with a move up in weight class to welterweight. Chiesa is on a four-fight win streak and has put himself in prime position for a title chance. Both fighters will be putting a potential title shot on the line and we should see who’s best, is truly best. Although I am a huge Luque fan and he has caught my eye since fighting the top guys as an unranked welterweight, I expect Chiesa to get this to the mat and win by decision at +235. I don’t think Chiesa will be able to stand with Luque for 3 rounds, but I expect him to mix it up and will have success there.

Jose Aldo (-115) vs Pedro Munhoz

Both fighters are coming off wins after short skids and both are looking to rejuvenate another run for the title. Its incredible Jose Aldo is only 34 as it seems like he has been around forever, and he has, but is still getting better and can absolutely capture gold again in this division. Munhoz had a few disappointing decisions against the current champ Aljo Sterling and legend Frankie Edgar but bounced back in a good performance against Jimmie Rivera. Aldo continues to get the legend respect and ran through the gauntlet of Volkanovski, Marlon Moraes, and Petr Yan. After returning against Marlon Vera, we remember why Aldo continues to be put in position for a title run. Both fighters hit hard but Munhoz has more of a one punch KO power whereas Aldo will load up the right hand at times and absolutely tear the body up when vulnerable. I expect this to be an absolute brawl and see Aldo coming on strong in rounds 2 and 3 for a decision win at ML -115. I continue to hope that we see the full time return of the patent Jose Aldo leg kicks. We seem to see it more each fight so I am crossing my fingers!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cW3_GHh5Ets

Ciryl Gane (-360) vs Derrick Lewis

Its amazing how easy this fight seems to be to pick on paper, yet its one of the more perplexing fights for me to pick on the entire card. Both are great fighters and win in different ways, this sadly has a chance to be a dud of a fight. Derrick Lewis is not known for his movement and Gane is, in a way where he can pick Lewis apart from the outside with leg kicks and jabs similar to Adesanya vs Romero. I don’t expect it to go this way, but the power from Lewis must be respected to the point where the opponent must be conservative in some way. Gane is incredibly young and has been thrown into the fire early due to his performances, nearly forcing the UFCs hand. He is a quick riser through the ranks and its clear why the UFC loves him. I am not afraid to shout to the sky with absolute certainty, CIRYL GANE IS A FUTURE UFC HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPION, it’s just not Saturday night. Derrick Lewis is immune to BJJ and wresting somehow and there is just a feeling he stops the show again in a round 4 KO for +300. Derrick Lewis is truly an anomaly in this fight game, and I absolutely cannot get enough of him.

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Banger of the night: Jose Aldo vs Pedro Munhoz

How do you not love this fight? Both guys will be looking to bring it and exchange punches all night. Both fighters have shown constantly the type of heart they have and will be willing to brawl to get that win. While I expect a Jose Aldo win, I am certain either way this will be a three round war that will have the fans up in their seats. What a perfect matchup to lead into the main event.

Biggest chance of upset: Derrick Lewis vs Ciryl Gane

Of course I choose Derrick Lewis to win, but it’s the obvious choice. Its hard to blame Vegas for making Gane such a heavy favorite, however Derrick Lewis evades statistics as well as he does wrestling. Its impossible to understand how Derrick Lewis has made it this far, but he is on an insane push right now that I don’t see stopping. Derrick Lewis hasn’t lost to a single currently ranked heavyweight and I don’t see that stopping either. Gane is a future champion, but it’s not his time just yet.

Most to lose: Pedro Munhoz

While losing to Jose Aldo is never a career ender on its own, Munhoz is now the number 9th ranked fighter in the division which just welcomed TJ Dillashaw, ex-champ, back into the fold. This is also before we even have the rematch between current champ Aljo Sterling and Petr Yan. There is still time to catch up but Munhoz is 34 and a loss could be having him with future matchups outside the top 10.

Most to gain: Michael Chiesa

While Vicente Luque and Michael Chiesa are in similar situations, Chiesa recently moved to this weight class and continuing to not lose here is a strong case for a title shot in a division where the champ has nearly lapped the top 5. Chiesa doesn’t have the most exciting fighting style for the casual fans and he is just a down to earth guy who loves his mom. He has to earn the title shot the “hard way”, and a signature win can solidify that resume.

*All lines via Bovada.com