UFC 263 Bets and Picks

Fight fans are again blessed with another stacked fight card. This will be mentioned as one of the top cards in all of 2021 and we are only halfway through. Not only are there two title fights, but the first ever 5 round non co main or main event. While this is a great fight for the fans, the same cannot be said for ones who enjoy betting close matchups. This will be a card of heavy underdogs, but we will sift through below and see which are worth taking a chance on.

Drew Dober (-150) vs Brad Riddell*

This is about as much of a fan friendly fight as you can get. Both will be looking to trade leather with minimal takedowns and a ton of heart. Drew Dober coming off a tough loss to Islam Makhachaev, but that is about a step or two up in competition to what he will face in Brad Riddell. I see Riddell as the better counter striker but Dober will be bringing power that cannot be tested often. With both high up on the list of potential bonus worthy performances, I see Riddell winning by decision with a ML of +125. Both are very tough but there is potential for a late finish if there is fatigue.

Belal Muhammad (-220) vs Demian Maia

Both fighters coming off less than desirable performances, it appears Belal is hungry to jump into the top pool of contenders after a missed opportunity with Leon Edwards via eye poke. This is a very interesting clash of styles as Belal is the young up and coming pressure fighter on the feet whereas it’s been well known for some time Maia will want the fight on the ground to utilize the top class BJJ. If this fight does make it to the mat Belal could be in trouble immediately, but it will be interesting to see how the pressure will impact Maia at 43 years old. I see this as a Belal Muhammad decision for ML of -220. There is some value in Maia winning by submission as well at +365, as Belal has not faced a fighter willing to attempt double digit takedowns per round to get the fight on the mat like Maia will.

Leon Edwards (-575) vs Nate Diaz

Nate Diaz makes his long-awaited return….to a very unfavorable matchup against a man on a 9-fight unbeaten streak. The fans will certainly tune in and if they wont for a vintage Diaz performance, they will after he was seen lighting up some of his own personal brand of marijuana at the press conference. This is a great matchup for Leon Edwards and can push himself right into a title fight with an exciting finish against, historically, one of the most durable guys in the business. Leon did look good against limited time against Belal Muhammad, but those championship rounds with Nate Diaz will show us a lot about Leon if it makes it there. The UFC knew this was a big fight and that shows with it being the only non-Co-Main or Main event fight that is 5 full rounds. I believe most fans can attest to being a general Nate Diaz fan, but this matchup is too great. I see Leon rolling in this fight and even winning by a finish in the 4th round. Odds of a Leon Edwards TKO/KO/DQ is +110.

Deiveson Figueiredo (-190) vs Brandon Moreno

After one of the best fights in the year, the much-anticipated rematch Flyweight title fight is here. After points were taken away in the first fight, it ended in a draw which meant Figueiredo would keep his title. The first fight was on short notice for both fighters and there were rumor reports that Figueiredo was not 100% healthy the night before the first fight. After just making weight seconds before the timer, it will be interesting to see if Figueiredo will come out with a better performance by his standards. I believe Moreno has a chin and endurance to make this a dog fight again. Moreno went from being scratched from the UFC in his first stint to winning the LFA title and earning a second shot at the UFC Flyweight title. Unfortunately, I do not see this being as interesting as the first fight. I am not sure I put a lot of weight in the health reports from Figueiredo, but the power he possesses at 125 is something you cannot prepare well for. I expect this to matter to the judges if the fight goes the distance, but I see Figueiredo winning by TKO in the 3rd round. Figueiredo to win by TKO/KO/DQ is at +115 odds.

Israel Adesanya (-265) vs Marvin Vettori

These two fighters have done a fantastic job of hyping the fight up prior to fight night. While the press conference was more or less a screaming match, these two genuinely appear to not like each other. Whether its genuine or not, that fire appears to be there and its working. Adesanya will be coming off a loss after attempting to move up in weight and Vettori believes he already beat Adesanya in their first fight. Vettori has the gameplan he thinks will work in wrestling, but Adesanya has been notorious for being tough to take down. Vettori is a great fighter in his division but his skills do not match with that of Jan Blachowicz. If Vettori can find a way to mix up his takedowns with striking and pressure it could be a long night for Israel, but I see Adesanya as being too skilled on the feet and takedown defense. The fight will hit the mat a time or two in the fight, but I do not see Vettori being able to do enough damage to offset what I see happening on the feet between the two. I see Israel Adesanya winning by a 3rd round TKO. Adesanya may have come up short in his quest to be a double champ, but he is still the king of the Middleweight division. I think both fighters have improved but Adesanya appears to have improved more against higher ranked fighters. Adesanya to win by TKO/KO/DQ is +170 and a finish in round 3 is +1000.

Other props/bets to consider**:

Marvin Vettori on points +400

Israel Adesanya to have 2+ knockdowns +260

Brandon Moreno to win inside distance +420

Deiveson Figueiredo to win by 5 round decision +300

Demian Maia wins by submission +365

*All bets/lines via bovada.com

**Props/bets to consider with a specific outcome in mind