UFC 262 Bets and Picks

- image vis MMAFighting.com

This is an underrated card with the prelims having some interesting matchups and prospects to look out for. I do look forward to an action packed card with a sold out show in Houston, TX, but we will be making picks and bets for 3 of the 5 main card fights today. Crowds being back still has me excited so let’s just right into it!

Shane Burgos(-155)* vs Edson Barboza

What a banger of a fight! This fight is right at the top of my list for fights of the night. Barboza has looked great since the move to 145 and the weight cut hasn’t appeared to hinder him like some thought. Both of these men are big for the division but they have a bit different styles. Burgos loves to pepper you with shots and keep the pressure to brawl whereas Barboza is looking to catch with you a fast straight or a kick you never see coming. Barboza has dropped both opponents at 145 now and has shown his speed has translated to the smaller weight class. Both are very talented fighters with a clear path to victory. This is only three rounds so I don’t expect much of a war, but I do see Burgos wearing Barboza out over the course of those three rounds. I would not be surprised to see Barboza get a finish here with Burgos showing suspect defense at times but ultimately I recommend Shane Burgos ML at (-155). However, Barboza to win inside distance is +325 if you’re confident in the Brazilian getting a finish.

Beneil Dariush(-155) vs Tony Ferguson

Especially with this fight only being 3 rounds, we could see a massive turnaround for Ferguson or another performance that forces the tough “over the hill” conversation some older fighters tend to receive towards the end of their career. This is a fight that peak Tony wins easily, maybe even by early finish, but the reality is that Tony is no longer with us. Dariush is on a massive run of 6 wins In a row, although it’s fair to say Ferguson is a big step up in competition for him even on this mini skid. Dariush has a path to victory in his black belt BJJ, but he also has a tendency to brawl a bit with his opponents even with this given advantage. Ferguson switching camps may worry some, but it appears this is just allowing Ferguson to go back to his roots and challenge himself. I am not one that believes Tony is “over the hill” just yet. He may not be the elite interim champ we all missing seeing but I expect the camp changes to benefit Ferguson here. I don’t necessarily see a finish as both guys are tough as nails but I see Ferguson by UD(+450) at great odds. Ferguson ML(+130) without specifics. If you are in the camp that feels Tony is over the hill, there is a bet for you too! Dariush to win by UD(+190) or Dariush wins inside distance(+275).

Charles Oliveira(-125) vs Michael Chandler

Michael Chandler, welcome to the UFC! This man just shows up from day one ready to fight anyone and everyone and happens to win by first round KO his first night out. All in a days work for this former Bellator champ. This is the exact type of fight fans love to see, an intense stylistic matchup that looks dead even on paper. Even the face off was intense! It’s clear the UFC is pushing for Chandler to win this fight. He is one of the more marketable guys in the entire organization and you can see the UFC is ready to “push” Chandler all the way to the top. Oliveira on the other hand, has been in the organization for over a decade paying his dues and perfecting his craft. He only has the most submission wins in UFC history to speak to his hard work. While the BJJ skills of Oliveira have been common knowledge he has also improved his stand up considerably to become extremely well rounded. Oliveira can slip a guillotine before you can even finish with the “G” and that is something Chandler has acknowledged as mentioning, being dangerous on the mat. Chandler is one to immediately jump to the middle of the octagon so it will be interesting to see if Oliveira can match that pace from the jump. I expect fireworks early on as Chandler is his most explosive and to see who determines the pace of this fight. This is about as close to a 50/50 fight as you can get, but I believe we see Chandler explode onto the scene again. I expect a 2nd or 3rd round KO by Chandler(+700). If you would rather skip the specifics, Chandler to win inside distance(+125) is also available with Chandler ML(+105). I believe Chandler understands as the fight goes on his explosiveness with decrease and the increased sweat makes for a tough time defending submissions. I expect urgency early from Chandler and will give round 1 as a “feeling out” process as most 5 round fights do. Oliveira does have some great kicks and creativity on the feet so if Oliviera hits the leg kicks early, it could spell a bad night for Chandler in the championship rounds.

Other bets to consider**:

Michael Chandler wins by 5 round decision (+600)

Chandler vs Oliveira over 4.5 rounds (+230)

Oliveira by submission or decision (+125)

Tony Ferguson to win by KO/TKO or Dariush by submission (+270)

Dariush wins by TKO or submission (+240)

Shane Burgos by TKO/KO stoppage round 3 (+1600)

Burgos vs Barboza under 2.5 rounds (+155)

*all bet figures via Bovada.com

**Side prop bets to consider for specific outcomes