UFC 261 Picks and Bets

-Image via Espn.com

Its always a blessing when a UFC card is headlined by three title fights, plus we get fans back in the arenas! This isn’t a great card for underdogs when it comes to betting lines, however I do think we are guaranteed some really good fights this weekend. We will make the fight picks then end with some suggested props/bets that could pay out if you’re feeling lucky.

Jimmy Crute (-210*) vs Anthony “Lionheart” Smith

Its difficult to place Anthony Smith in the LHW division pickings given his last few fights, but after a win against unranked Devin Clark he is hoping the momentum swings his direction. This is a classic veteran versus young bull matchup, and I do think that is an important aspect of this matchup. Jimmy Crute originated in the UFC from Dana White’s Contender Series in 2018 and hasn’t looked back since. Powerful hands and crafty striking would lead you to believe Crute has the advantage on the feet here. I do like Jimmy Crute by decision at a -210 ML, but I don’t think you can totally count Lionheart out with a slick submission late.

Chris Weidman (-125) vs Uriah Hall

While this is a second matchup for these two, it doesn’t feel like it with it now being more than a decade removed from the first fight, in which Weidman won by TKO in the first round. Uriah Hall looked to be an almost certain future champion after his unique Ultimate Fighter 17 run. He did lose to Kelvin Gastelum in the finals, however the highlights he produced that season would live on forever. The skills are evident but there is something to Uriah Hall and his mindset. You can nearly see the pain on his face after a fight when seeing the destruction, he can cause. Weidman appears to have a shot chin at this point in his career, so this is a tough betting pick. Uriah Hall can tend to become inactive during fights and does not respond to pressure that well. I believe Weidman’s pressure will be enough to secure a three-round decision, however I wouldn’t count out a 3rd round TKO for Hall if you cannot trust Weidman’s chin. Uriah Hall ML is +105

Valentina Schevchenko (-500) vs Jessica Andrade

How incredible is it that a -500 favorite is considered the best bet for this fighter in some time? Valentina Schevchenko has simply been that dominant since earning the belt. Her ability to mix it up and on the feet with such quickness hasn’t been figured out just yet at Flyweight. Andrade is fresh off of a TKO stoppage by kidney shot to Chookagian. Even after losing to Rose Namajunas the fight before, she looked great at the end and nearly stole the win. I believe this fight ends up being as lopsided as the line suggests. Andrade has some serious power, especially for Flyweight, however Schevchenko is a great counter striker that will have plenty of opportunities to work. Andrade is tough as nails so I am not sold on a finish but a dominant 5 round decision for Schevchenko seems in order.

Zhang Weili (-200) vs Rose Namajunas

I expect this fight to be the best and most technical of the night. This is an incredible clash of styles on the feet, and I really feel this is as 50/50 as you can get. Rose has some incredibly quick and smooth footwork on the feet that can make things very difficult for Weili. Weili likes to charge forward with strong punches and a strong chin. We saw both fighters take some incredible shots in the fight with Weili and Joanna Jedrzejczyk so I am not sure I see Rose finishing Weili. Rose does tend to trail off as the fight goes on and we saw the exact opposite from Zhang in her fight with JJ. Rose has the clear advantage on the mat but not in the clinch, so I expect her to be very calculated with takedowns if they are utilized. This is the fight I am most excited for so I wont bet on it, but I expect Weili’s pressure to eventually be too much for Rose. I do expect Rose to have a great first two rounds but Weili will exert her pressure from there to steal the last three. The Weili ML is -200 but if you trust in Rose sticking to the gameplan then the +160 underdog isn’t bad value.

Kamaru Usman (-375) vs Jorge Masvidal

A lot of fans were surprised when Masvidal was granted a rematch at the title given the way the first fight went, however when the champ calls someone out they generally get what they want. Usman appears to be hell bent on a finish and Masvidal on a similar mission to “expose” Usman and his “foot hugging” style. This appears to be a personal vendetta for Usman more so than the most deserving challenger but those are the types of factors that sells fights. Masvidal has assured the public that a fight camp will make a world of a difference and we will see if he is right. Usman has only improved his striking each fight and Trevor Wittman I’m sure is part of that reason. He utilized his jab against Gilbert Burns in his last fight so effectively a lot of us fans are curious to see the difference in this rematch with Masvidal. The first fight was on six days’ notice so it’s safe to assume neither fighter was at their best without a camp. I do think this second fight will be much more competitive, but I do expect the same result. Kamaru Usman is becoming such a well rounded fighter and as we saw in the first fight his wrestling and clinch work is at a great advantage. There is a slight worry Usman comes back too quick after taking some good shots against Gilbert Burns. Masvidal has shown to be slick in the clinch with elbows and Usman has shown a tendency to dip his head when hit. I think Usman by decision is the play at -375 ML.

Props/Other Interesting bets**

Anthony Smith wins by submission +750

-If you see Anthony Smith pulling off a surprise sub

Uriah Hall by KO/TKO in Round 3 +1100

-If there is no confidence in Weidman’s chin

Jessica Andrade wins by KO/TKO/DQ +600

-If you see Andrade having too much power

Valentina Schevchenko by 1st round KO/TKO stoppage +1000

-If you feel confident in Schevchenko to the fullest

Rose Namajunas wins by Submission +750

-If you feel Rose can get the fight to the mat

Jorge Masvidal by 1st round TKO/KO stoppage +1000

-If you feel like a full camp makes a big difference for Masvidal

*All bets and lines from Bovada.com

**Not guaranteed picks, rather lines for not as likely outcomes if you're confident for a specific finish