UFC 260 Picks and Bets

Here we are looking at picks and best value picks for UFC 260 this weekend. While we do have a better than average card coming up, the card took a massive hit losing Alexander Volkanovski vs Brian Ortega for the featherweight championship. That would have arguably been the best fight on the entire card, however the main card still has plenty of potential for value. We will proceed with picks for the main card and follow-up with potential props and great value bets. All lines and props are via Bovada.com.

Jamie Mullarkey (+105) vs Khama Worthy (-125)*

While the odds here are not fruitful for either side, this is an interesting fight in terms of the matchup. Mullarkey has unorthodox striking looking to get the fight to the mat while Worthy is a powerful striker trying to keep this on the feet. Both fighters coming off losses – Worthy by TKO and Mullarkey by decision – this is a chance for either fighter to get back on the winning track. In nearly a pick em fight this can go either way, but my money is on a Mullarkey decision via money line (+105) by utilizing wrestling and ground control.

Miranda Maverick (-165) vs Gillian Robertson (+135)*

This is the second matchup of these two, with the first match scheduled for UFC 258, was postponed due to COVID issues. The action has cooled a bit as Maverick opened as a -225 favorite when the first fight was announced, moving to a steady -165 now. This really is a fight of matchups, with Robertson having an edge on the mat while surrendering a significant skill gap on the feet. Miranda Maverick has a tough time defending takedowns with a 0% takedown defense average, though it should be noted Maverick is coming off her first fight in the UFC. This pick comes down to who you think executes their plan the best. I see some value in the Robertson ML (+135), however I would stay away from this fight if possible.

Sean O’Malley (-335) vs Thomas Almeida (+250)*

There really isn’t much to say about this fight other than fireworks! Thomas Almeida is an exciting striker in his own right; however, O’Malley has a lot of hype behind him for very good reason. His ability to string together combinations with such fluidity, its difficult to think of someone like him. He is also big and long for the division. Almeida will make this exciting for as long as it is, but I see this as a quick first round knockout. I would take Sean O’Malley by TKO stoppage in round 1 for +350

Vicente Luque (-240) vs Tyron Woodley (+190)*

I will say right away, the value either way in this fight makes it easy to walk away and pass. At this point, I wouldn’t blame anyone for this. Sit back and enjoy this potential banger without hoping for a bet either way. All that being said, someone must win so I do like Luque in this fight. Prime Woodley probably wins this fight easily, but after three straight bad losses its hard to see myself picking Woodley here. While all three have been to elite talents in the Welterweight division, he has look uninspired for every round in those three fights. I don’t envision Luque going for a takedown here and even if he did, Woodley has incredible takedown defense. Luque has a granite chin but it does get tested often, so if Woodley does finally release his hands there is a clear path to victory. I do like the Vicente Luque ML at -240 but little value in either pick in this fight.

Stipe Miocic (c) (+115) vs Francis Ngannou (-140)*

When the heavyweight GOAT is an underdog, you know we are setting up to have a fantastic main event. The resume of Stipe Miocic is unmatched with countless former champions and a record number four title defenses. Stipe won the first fight convincingly so there is still a clear path to victory for either fighter. Both fighters have improved since their first matchup but its hard to also ignore Stipe’s age. You must wonder after two great fights with Daniel Cormier, does Stipe have the chin to keep up with Ngannou? Even in a wrestle heavy game plan, Stipe took some heavy shots in the first fight that you question if he can hold up for this time around. I do think Ngannou has underrated takedown defense, but I also believe Stipe will be able to wrestle wherever he wants if he can manage to close the distance without getting dropped. I do like Ngannou by first round knockout here, but the Stipe ML at +115 is also difficult to ignore. As stated above, there is a clear path to victory for Stipe and he is also 4-0 as an underdog in championship fights. That value there for the heavyweight GOAT is hard to pass up.

Additional lines/props

Below are a few lines and props I believe have good value based on value of the payout compared to chance of hitting. These below wont be sure fire picks but can provide incredible value if you’re feeling lucky.

Stipe Miocic (vs Ngannou) +375 wins by decision or technical decision

Stipe Miocic to win, have most takedowns, and land most significant strikes +200

Francis Ngannou (vs Stipe Miocic) to win in first 30 seconds of round 1 +1400

Tyron Woodley (vs Vicente Luque) to win by TKO stoppage round 3 +2000

Thomas Almeida (vs Sean O’Malley) to win by TKO stoppage round 1 +1200

*All props and lines are via Bovada.com