Balls In Your Court 2021-2022 NBA Season Preview

The NBA season is already here! It feels like it really creeped up on us this year and that means there is a ton of information to cover in a short time! With a Finals that consisted of the Bucks and Suns last year, it really feels like anyone has a chance even with the Nets having all the star power in the world. Most awards also feel this way, especially the MVP award. You must wonder if Giannis voter fatigue is still a thing and how important will wins be for the award race? We know Steph and Luka will put up numbers, but will their teams have enough wins to keep them in the race? We will have award predictions, surprising and disappointing teams, and more!

Awards Predictions:

Most Valuable Player:

Jon’s Pick: Kevin Durant

Zach’s Pick: Luka Doncic

Honorable mentions: Giannis, Jokic, and Donovan Mitchell

The skinny: With the Kyrie Irving news – wait you heard right? In all seriousness with Kyrie being unlikely to join the team this year, Kevin Durant will have to take on much more of a role along with James Harden, but Kevin Durant will be the clear leader of this team. Harden may even put-up better numbers for the 2021-2022 season, but just like those prior Warriors squads, Kevin Durant will be the best player on arguably the best team in the regular season. Luka Doncic had a rough start to last season, as did many due to the league start time and prior bubble, but it I expect him to jump out immediately this year to put the Mavericks on the map again. The impeding Porzingis situation will be interesting to monitor, but with new coach Jason Kidd at the helm I expect Doncic to have the ball in his hands often. If you recall, Jason Kidd was the one who initially pushed Giannis to start taking the ball up and Doncic is much more equipped to take all those ball handling duties. Giannis has to be an honorable mention as he is arguably the greatest player in the league fresh off a title. Jokic won the MVP last year by a considerable amount and he has another fresh regular season without Jamal Murray. I expect the workload to be heavy, I just wonder if he can do it all year. Donovan Mitchell deserves respect and I expect the Jazz to have another great regular season being a top 3 team in the NBA for regular season record. Gobert will never have the stats to win MVP as his impact is largely not based on the stat sheet and Donovan Mitchell continues to get better and more efficient. Mitchell could sneak up on the MVP this year if healthy.

Defensive Player of the Year:

BIYC Pick: Anthony Davis, Lakers.

Honorable Mentions: Rudy Gobert, Bam Adebayo

The skinny: Anthony Davis continues to show himself as the most versatile defender in the NBA, I just wonder if health can allow him to play enough games to win this award. Davis, whether playing the 4 or the 5, has the wingspan, awareness, and quickness to make the paint a living hell with him there. Unlike Gobert, Davis can also handle himself well on the perimeter as a defender given his length and footwork. I expect Anthony Davis to have the stats and impact off the stat sheet to win the DPOY in 2021-2022. Rudy Gobert has been one of the better interior defenders for years so its hard to imagine a DPOY award without him in the running, but voters may be getting tired of throwing him in there. His impact is clear, but in recent years big men like Jokic and Embiid have taken it to Gobert, especially in the playoffs, leading a path for a new DPOY in 2021-2022. Bam Adebayo is developing into one of the best two-way players and his offense continues to improve. He is a skilled defender that is willing to take on any one on one, whether in the paint or perimeter, and NBA defense is largely about want to. Adebayo has the want to, the skills, and the excitement to put himself in the tier 1 of NBA big men defenders.

Rookie of the Year:

BIYC Pick: Jalen Green, Houston Rockets

Honorable mentions: Cade Cunningham, Jalen Suggs

The skinny: Jalen Green will have the greenest of lights in Houston in a full blown rebuild, however the rebuild is already in full swing with budding stars of Kevin Porter Jr and Christian Wood. Both looked fantastic in stretches last year and proved talented if they can put it all together. I barely have questions about Wood as he has shown for a few years now he belongs in the NBA, however it remains to be seen if Porter Jr can keep up his insane production that he showed in the final 7-10 game stretch of last season. Jalen Green will be the primary ball handler and the Rockets will work through any issues he may have acclimating in his rookie year. All the volume you could want as a rookie on a team where opposing matchups will need to focus on more than just Green to stop the Rockets. Cade Cunningham seems like the easy answer here as he was stated as the most pro ready rookie of the bunch and can truly do it all. However, the Pistons will struggle this year and given the preseason reports of holding Cunningham out for precautionary reasons, I don’t see Detroit rushing this rookie in any way. They have a young squad and are in no immediate rush to be contenders. Jalen Suggs arguably has the highest ceiling of any rookie and will have plenty of chances to prove himself on a rebuilding team. Orlando has plenty of guards, but that front office and staff would be remiss to put any of them over Jalen Suggs. Like Jalen Green, I expect volume but there is a chance the other young guards Orlando has could eat into that volume especially early on.

Sixth Man of the Year:

BIYC Pick: Jordan Clarkson, Utah Jazz

Honorable Mentions: Derrick Rose, Tyler Herro

The Skinny: As with my MVP HM of Donovan Mitchell, I expect the Jazz to again be a top 3 team in the league in the regular season, and they couldn’t do it without one of the deepest benches in the league. Jordan Clarkson again looks to be a spark off the bench that can start scoring fresh out of a 3-week coma. Clarkson could get hot on a shooting streak faster than most and with Mike Conley struggling with injuries as he gets older that may even lead to a few games of Clarkson slotting into the starting lineup. Derrick Rose will be the exciting pick as we will almost assuredly see a few 30+ point outings for Rose off the bench, but the counter side to that are a few clunkers that I see keeping him out of that top spot. The Derrick Rose story is one we will all love watching as a 30for30 one day on ESPN/Netflix. Tyler Herro is a popular pick for 6th man of the year and while I like his opportunity, I simply like Rose and Clarkson more than Herro as a player. Tyler Herro is one of those players you love to have on your team, but not your fantasy team. I think Herro brings something to this Heat team that can’t always be shown in the stat sheet, and that ultimately will lead to him missing out on this award. Still one of the better young players at his position.

Most Improved Player of the Year:

BIYC Pick: Darius Garland, Cleveland Cavaliers

Honorable mention: Jordan Poole, Shai Gilgeous Alexander

The Skinny: There are plenty of players eligible for this award each preseason, it just depends which player you like to breakout the most. The BIYC team has loved Garland since he came out of Vanderbilt, and he has improved significantly from years 1 to 2. We expect an even bigger jump in year 3, especially with the Collin Sexton situation becoming very murky with the Cavs and Sexton not coming to terms on an extension before the rookie deadline. The Cavs have a sneaky good young group and are one of the 3 youngest teams in the NBA. While they are only rumors, there have been inklings that teammates don’t like playing next to Sexton. Its possible Sexton and the Cavs come to an agreement, but either way I expect them to put Garland front and center. From year 1 to year 2, Garland improved his FG% by nearly 5 percentage points, similar increase in 3-point percentage and improved his assists on a per game basis from nearly 4 assists in his rookie season to 6+ per game in year 2. If the Cavs put their weight behind Garland, we expect a big year for him in 2021-2022. Is there much to say about Jordan Poole? We all saw that fantastic preseason and he showed flashes in spurts last year in limited action. With Klay Thompson likely out to the end of the year in a best-case scenario, Poole will have plenty of time to make a mark. There aren’t enough good things I can say about Shai Gilgeous Alexander and truthfully the only reason he wasn’t number 1 here is because I feel he has already broken out. A 23-year-old fresh off a nasty foot injury, SGA is again leading the youngest team in the league that are essentially performing their own version of “The Process”. SGA is a budding star and one of the best young two-way players in the league. There aren’t many players I start my franchise with over SGA, and I believe this year he gains the respect he deserves.

Surprises and/or disappointments:

Biggest Team Surprises:

BIYC Picks: Toronto Raptors & Chicago Bulls

The Raptors open the season with a O/U win total of 35.5 and given they already have a roster ready to compete, this almost seems like bait. But we are falling for it! Lowry is a proven winner and non-Toronto fans may never fully understand his impact to their team, but Fred VanVleet is set to take over ball handling duties and they have length, on length, on length. Chris Boucher looked fantastic, especially if he can get a starting role this year, and the injury to Siakam early could cause some to look away here. All last season the Raptors had an unprecedented situation as they had to stay in Orlando, which led to players being home sick and, quite simply, no home games. That is a tough situation to come right off the bubble and I expect this team to bounce back. Although Nick Nurse struggled with a good consistent lineup last year, they still have a talented roster and one of the best coaches in the East. The Bulls are at a 42.5-win total for this season, but we are still hitting the over. Zach LaVine is quietly becoming one of the best scoring guards in the game and the addition of DeRozan will help defensively as well as opening the paint as one of the most prolific mid-range scorers in the league. I think we finally see Lonzo Ball reach potential that we have been waiting for. They won’t need him to score, and the pressure will be off for him. Hopefully, LaVar Ball gives his attention to LaMelo Ball because Lonzo is on course to have a breakout year in a perfect situation.

Biggest Team Disappointments:

BIYC Picks: New York Knicks, Los Angeles Clippers

Both teams had very different 2020 seasons as the Knicks were a big surprise team, led by Julius Randle, hitting the playoffs for the first time since Carmelo Anthony and had one of the best team defenses in the regular season. Unfortunately, those things didn’t carry over into the playoffs well and were bounced in round 1. They did get bounced by a very good Atlanta Hawks team in round 1, however Julius Randle didn’t look the same and the defense did not carry as it did during the regular season. Julius Randle is greatly improved, and he deserves credit for the season, but the playoffs are a different animal and teams were able to gameplan defensively around where Julius Randle wins. The Clippers pick may be a little unfair as it revolves around Kawhi’s injury, but the Western conference is deep and while I still see this as a playoff team, the win total is set at 45.5. Paul George has had issues in the playoffs in the past and I question whether he can carry the load of this team without Kawhi. Paul George is still a top 15 player in the NBA and will be a fantasy superstar this year, I am just not sure it also leads to a top 3 seed in the West.

Biggest Player Surprises:

BIYC Picks: Lonzo Ball – Chicago Bulls, Kevin Porter Jr – Houston Rockets

As mentioned above for both guys, I expect the Bulls as a squad to do better, in large part because of Ball, and the Rockets have a ton of young guys that will have some insane volume. Lonzo Ball is in a perfect position in Chicago where he has plenty of teammates to deliver the ball to without a big expectation reliant on his shooting. Pressure has seemed to be something that has bogged down his results and that’s not a point I think will impact him this year. There were a lot of expectations for Ball coming out of college and he has largely disappointed those expectations, but this has led to us downplaying how good he really has been, especially defensively. Kevin Porter exceled in limited action in 2020 – averaging 20 PPG, 6 Assists per game, and over 3 triples per game in the last 7 games of the year. While I don’t expect those splits to continue with increased volume for this young player, I expect him to be offensively a handful and not easy to guard. At this point, I feel his shot selection could be his own worst enemy. Uber talented and possibly the highest ceiling of any player on the Rockets, including first round pick Jalen Green, Kevin Porter Jr has a big chance to jump on the scene for casual fans. The Rockets were rebuilding last year and not many tuned in, especially towards the end of the year, but Houston is building some real down there. Christian Wood is already a monster and Jasean Tate showed great promise as a stretch big, like the PJ Tucker role.

Biggest Player Disappointments:

BIYC Picks: Julius Randle – New York Knicks, John Collins – Atlanta Hawks

This one is not fun to write because both players are still relatively young and continuing to improve. Someone like Julius Randle has been discredited his whole career and surprised a lot of people in 2020. Working with his trainer in the offseason, in particular his step back jumper and jumper in general have improved greatly. Unfortunately, this also happens to be a large percentage of his shots and as we saw in the playoffs, that was something teams could defend around. The regular season is never as defensive minded like the playoffs, but teams will have figured them out a little bit. I don’t expect the Knicks to be a laughingstock of the past, but its hard to imagine the Knicks disappointing and Julius Randle also not following in suite. Love the player, hate the expectations. I feel the Knicks overachieved last year which may lead to unrealistic expectations running into 2021. John Collins is a great player and has improved each season, but with the introduction of Clint Capela, that ate into his roll a little bit. Collins points per game and rebound decreased in 2020, but he was the ultimate team player and the organization rewarded him with a new contract extension. Collins deserved the contract and I even believe he is a better player than his numbers show, but his role will be even more diminished with all the wing scorers the Hawks present. The offense will always revolve around Trae Young and while he tends to get the entire team involved, Capela has become his go to PNR big man that Collins had of the past. If John Collins was on a bad team he would be putting up insane numbers. Unfortunately, he is on a loaded team looking to make a championship push, which means his role is largely already defined.

NBA Finals Picks:

BIYC 2021 NBA Finals Matchup: Milwaukee Bucks vs Los Angeles Lakers

BIYC 2021-2022 NBA Finals Champions: Los Angeles Lakers in 7

Now this one was tough to do. We chose the Bucks out of the east given how the Kyrie situation has unfolded and the level of Giannis in the 2020 NBA Finals. Before, Giannis was just putting up crazy numbers in the regular season but winning the Finals off the back of a 50-point game is next level. Giannis has somehow found a way to hit a new level and I also expect the likes of Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton to be more consistent when needed. Truthfully, the west was a crapshoot, and we feel they have a ton of great teams, but few we felt comfortable to make it to the NBA Finals. We chose the Lakers here for their experience and Lebron understanding he doesn’t have much time left to win another championship. The Westbrook addition is weird at first, but his teaming with Harden looked bad at first as well but that happened to be one of Russ's best seasons since splitting with KD in OKC. The west has a few injuries this year that leaves that conference wide open for the taking. Unless the Suns can run it back, Lakers appear to be the choice here. The Suns would’ve been my pick here but given how important Ayton was to that team, I am unsure how that situation works out.

The fact that the Suns organization publicly stated they don’t think Ayton is a max is a contract player, isn’t borderline disrespectful, it is straight up disrespectful. Ayton continuously worked and sacrificed a bigger role to try and win the championship. Not only did his play greatly improve in the playoffs, but they would not have made it there without him. Not signing him to a max means you put all your eggs in the CP3 basket. While that has proven to work out for the most point thus far, his injury history and age make that a difficult decision for me to agree with. PAY THAT MAN is all I am saying. DeAndre Ayton is a max contract player and even the cheapskates in Phoenix should see this.

“I beat myself up about that one because we were in a position where that piece could have helped us probably extend our chance to run for a longer period of time” said Robert Sarver, reflecting on letting Joe Johnson walk in free agency back in 2005.

Those are interest comments given how Sarver has handled this entire DeAndre Ayton situation. It seems he still has not learned.