2021 SEC Football Season Preview

West:

1. Alabama

2. Texas A&M

3. LSU

4. Ole Miss

5. Arkansas

6. Auburn

7. Mississippi State

East:

1. Georgia

2. Florida

3. Kentucky

4. Missouri

5. South Carolina

6. Vanderbilt

7. Tennessee

West Preview:

The west isn’t just winning the division, its overcoming Alabama and if someone manages to do that, they just follow that up with a likely matchup with Georgia in the SEC championship. Jimbo Fisher has done his best in the offseason to humanize the Rolling Tide, however Alabama is set to reload again this time with another defense littered with NFL talent. A&M will be replacing nearly their entire offensive line from 2020 other than 1st team All American Kenyon Green and will be breaking in a brand-new quarterback. Haynes King won the starting job leaving fall camp and he has one of the best tight ends in the country in Jalen Wydermyer. With a considerable difference between # 2 and # 3 in the division this puts LSU and Ole Miss very close to each other, with the Ole Miss’ lack of defense proving to be the biggest deciding factor. LSU will be coming off of a tough year and were eager to end the Bo Pelini experiment. Ed Orgeron will be bringing in an entire new staff but has experience from players on both sides of the ball. Max Johnson was named the starting QB out of fall camp and has talent across the board. Kayshon Boutte looks to lead the receiver group to another All-American type of season and prolific offense. Unfortunately, they wont score points at the rate in which Ole Miss will under Lane Kiffin. Bringing back Matt Corral, Jerrion Ealy, and Snoop Conner means the only thing stopping this offense is themselves. If they can avoid going stagnant at times as they did in 2020, there won’t be many teams that can stop them, if any. If the defense can play at even an average rate Ole Miss could be challenging A&M for the second spot in this division. Ultimately, I believe the defense will put the offense in a situation one too many times, where they cannot trip up or make mistakes. Lane Kiffin is making some things happening and this is a program on the rise (again) but 2021 may not be the year they take the division.

Arkansas is in year 2 of their recent coaching change and with great coordinator hires, I expect Arkansas to show a real push in the SEC West. They were better than their 2020 reflected and return one of the most veteran groups in the conference on either side of the ball. Kendral Briles is showing us why he is regarded as one of the best up and coming OCs in the college game and returns Treylon Burke as well as Trelon Smith at running back. The defense made significant improvement from 2019 and I expect that trend to continue. The schedule is also brutal for Arkansas with games at Alabama, LSU, Ole Miss, and Georgia. The team is well rounded, it’s just not enough to have them contend with Ole Miss but they are on a much better trajectory for 2021 than Auburn. The schedule discrepancies put Auburn in the discussion with Arkansas, but they are going through a transition with a new coaching staff and completely different scheme changes. Bryan Harsin has a heavy run and physical attack, so Tank Bigsby appears to be on the fast track to stardom, but Bo Nix is inconsistent at best, and they lost all starting receivers from 2020. I expect Bigsby to get the numbers and while this offense will be on track to be subpar, the defense will carry this team. They have talent all over the back end of that defense and linebacking group so if Auburn can pull off a few upsets and coupled with that Arkansas schedule, they could leap a spot higher than projected here. Mississippi State had a brutal 2020 however I expect a big bounce back offensively in 2021. Mike Leach has success everywhere he goes and there is a reason for that while never recruiting with the best. Having a clear identity can help in overcoming some recruiting deficiencies especially in this high scoring offense. Will Rogers won the job out of fall camp, and they have a lot of competition at receiver to spread the ball around to. CJ Morgan returns from injury and the defense has some good individual players, but the overall group is not enough to carry them out of last place. Depth will be an issue and Auburn simply has more talent to overcome their deficiencies. Mike Leach is on the right track and there should be signs of noticeable improvement that the record may not otherwise show.

East Preview:

Will Georgia finally get over the Alabama hump? The funny thing is, even if they beat Alabama in the conference championship, they very well could see them again in the CFP if all goes well for both teams. If JT Daniels can play at the level of the back half of his 2020 then this team will be vying for a playoff spot even without star George Pickens. It’s unclear how involved Arik Gilbert will be from the receiver position as a former TE, but they have recruiting well enough under Kirby Smart to have that group loaded with blue chip prospects. This is lining up for the year of Georgia’s playoff run as they also play on the road @ Vandy, Auburn, Tennessee, and Georgia Tech. The Florida game will be in Jacksonville, however. If Georgia can get passed Clemson week 1 and Florida in Jacksonville, I think they will be undefeated headed into the SEC championship. As important as that Georgia v Florida game is, I don’t see Florida having a shot to win this game. There is a considerable difference between 1st and 2nd of this division and that largely has to do with Emory Jones. I am not sold on him as an accurate enough passer to overtake Georgia. I believe in what Dan Mullen is doing there and the defense will be improved from their 2020 showing. Demarckus Bowman is also receiving good reviews out of camp to help solidify the RB position. If Emory Jones can prove to be another Mullen hit then Florida has a chance, I just don’t see them having enough firepower to contend with Georgia. Kentucky is in an interesting spot with Mark Stoops where he has brought this team to being a serious SEC team on the rise from the so called “others” group when analysts mention Alabama and the “others” called the SEC. They bring back one of the best running backs in the country in Chris Rodriguez and bring in Nebraska transfer Wan’Dale Robinson who will be one of the most exciting players in the conference if used correctly. Terry Wilson departs at QB but with him at the helm it was one of the worst passing offenses in the country. There will be a fall camp battle and if they can get some production out of that position the defense will be good enough for them to seriously challenge the top half of this division. Missouri is a popular pick for 3rd in the division and Drinkwitz has the team on the come up, but 2021 is not their year. Kentucky is much more proven, has a star on offense to rely on with a clear identity and has a veteran staff. Missouri does have plenty of talent at receiver with Mookie Cooper also transferring from Ohio State. Tyler Badie appears to be the guy at RB and while I don’t expect him to be Badie (I will see myself out now), they will have to rely heavily on the passing attack to win games in this conference. Missouri also opens conference play @ Kentucky so that will be a game to watch with implications later in the year. Overall, the Missouri defense is what I have holding them back in 2021.

South Carolina made headlines earlier this week by announcing their graduate assistant (GA) who previously played QB at North Dakota State, will take off the visor and clipboard to swap with a helmet and chin strap to play QB for the Gamecocks week 1. It does appear Luke Doty will be back in a matter of another week or 2, but GA as QB is a headline I will never forget. South Carolina will have an interesting offense if Doty is the real deal but the defense, outside of the DL, will cause them some problems. SC will be closer to the bottom of the division than the top, but they have the pieces on offense to make it a tough out each week. The defense lost a lot of star power in the offseason, and I expect that to take its toll in 2021. Vanderbilt ahead of Tennessee? Both teams most likely won’t be very good as they are going through some serious coaching changes, however Vanderbilt has the up-and-coming quarterback and experienced receiver group to score some points. Ken Seals looks to build off his record-breaking freshman campaign to get this team on the winning track in their respective rebuild. The Vandy defense ranks in the bottom in the conference in returning defensive production, however it also happened to be one of the worst defenses in P5 in 2020. They did lose Donovan Kaufman to transfer but there is still talent on that side of the ball, so success is to be had if there is buy in. The reason I have Tennessee so low is the lack of trust in not only the QB in Joe Milton, but also the head coach in Josh Heupel. Its hard to ever have expectations in year 1 of a coaching change but Heupel didn’t exactly impress with his time at UCF in a much easier conference. There are no easy games in the SEC, well for Tennessee anyways as they could be considered the “gimme” in the conference in 2021. They will be returning Velus Jones, Jalin Hyatt, and Cade Mays on the OL for offense, but my lack of trust in Milton puts a cap on this offense. The transition from the Pruitt to Heupel offense will also be a big transition. The defense lost A LOT to the transfer portal. Their top two running backs, linebackers and starters in the secondary left the team in the offseason. This is just a lot to overcome in one year and little time to get the scheme changes down. Tennessee won’t be at the bottom for long, however 2021 does not look good for the Vols.

Award Predictions:

Offensive Player of the Year: Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss

Defensive Player of the Year: Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida

Coach of the Year: Kirby Smart, Georgia

Newcomer of the Year: Henry To’o To’o, LB, Alabama

PAC 12/ Big 12 / Big 10 / AAC