2021 PAC-12 Football Season Preview

North:

1. Oregon

2. Washington

3. CAL

4. Oregon State

5. Stanford

6. Washington State

South:

1. Utah

2. USC

3. Arizona State

4. UCLA

5. Colorado

6. Arizona

North preview:

The PAC-12 North really is a tale of the top two, and well, everyone else. I see this division as three tiers and tier 1 are Oregon and Washington. Tier 2 are Cal, Oregon State and Stanford. Tier 3 is Washington State all by itself. Cal will return large amounts of offensive production and the record with/without Chase Garbers is clear and Garbers appears to be healthy to start 2021. The defense will be a question after Tim DeRuyter departs, but Justin Wilcox is known for his defensive prowess. Cal has created a big of a gap between itself and the other two programs in that tier, but Oregon State has shown regardless of record, they come to play and can scare or even knock off the top end teams in the conference. I expect a big jump for Oregon State in 2021 with leaders on defense returning in Avery Roberts and Omar Speights to improve a historically bad defense. It appears Tristan Gebbia will be QB1 In 2021 and they have plenty of options at wide out even with the loss of NFL talent Isaiah Hodgins. What really separates Washington State as the bottom dweller of this conference is the defense. Being in year two of the Rolovich era, I expect there to be improvements, but this was one of the worst defenses in the conference last year and I don’t expect the offense to be good enough to outpace the rest of the conference consistently. It will be interesting to see the numbers Max Borghi can put up after losing the starting role in 2020 as he was one of the more excited players in 2019 with Mike Leach at the helm.

Oregon and Washington, two of the best teams in the entire conference are unfortunately stuck in the same division. Oregon brings intense line play, fantastic recruiting under Mario Cristobal, and an incredible staple of skill positions for Joe Moorhead to play with. They will be introducing a new QB in Anthony Brown (Boston College transfer), but his skillset fits right in with the exciting RPO version of this Oregon offense. Not to mention, Oregon is running with former Fresno State head coach in Tim DeRuyter at defensive coordinator. After the massive exodus of NFL talent from the 2019 team, this allowed the young secondary to get much needed reps in 2020. This defense will be experienced with a fantastic coordinator and the skill players to put up points on offense. Washington will be bringing in likely the best defense in the Pac-12, and maybe even top 5 in the country. They have playmakers all over the defense and although they lost Co-DC in Pete Kwiatkowski, Jimmy Lake also coached the defense and they hired within, so it’s hard to gauge how big of a loss that will be. With a tough game @Michigan in the non-conference, this will be a great gauge for this offense early in the season. There will be a full fledged QB battle in fall camp between 2020 starter Dylan Morris and CSU/Nebraska transfer Patrick O’Brien. Neither seems to move the needle too much in terms of leading them to a division title, however the strength of this offense will be the O Line. They will be using a running back by committee approach in Sean McGrew and Kamari Pleasant assuming lead back duties in terms of touches. The wide receiver room does have some talent in 4 stars across the board, however they are unproven outside of Cade Otton. Otton will continue to be a mismatch for opposing defenses and one of the best pass catchers in the conference. The game between Oregon and Washington is @ Washington in early November, however I still see Oregon pulling this game off and I see that being the deciding factor in the lead for the division.

South preview:

Unlike the North division, there are 4 teams who will realistically challenge for a division title in 2021. Utah appears to have exceeded expectations for the 2020 defense, which lost a lot to the NFL from the dominant 2019 squad. This means the 2021 defense will be experienced and they return 10 starters from last year. Along with a large influx of skill positions players from the transfer portal, Charlie Brewer was a big time QB transfer from Baylor and looks to start as QB1 heading into the 2021 opener. Utah brought in Theo Howard (UCLA), Chris Curry (LSU), and TJ Pledger (Oklahoma) to boost their skill positions and playmaking. This is all before mentioning the All-American TE candidate in Brant Kuithe who can do it all from blocking, catching the football, and even running an end around for trickery. Although I expect Utah to win this division, USC is a popular pick and its obvious why. Clay Helton has ramped up recruiting efforts (which hardly has been their problem), and we will be seeing good return production from the offense. They will be returning 2021 Heisman hopeful in Kedon Slovis at QB in an air raid offense that is bound to put up numbers barring any Offensive line injuries. They also return 2020 leading rusher Vavae Malepeai and high-profile Texas transfer Keaontay Ingram. Even though they lost their top two receiving targets in Amon Ra St. Brown and Tyler Vaughns, they have a room stocked full of blue-chip prospects ready to prove themselves in a pass happy offense. If the offensive line does not improve, that could hold back the offense to the point of battling for middle of the division. They return 4-year multi starters on the O line but lose Alijah Vera Tucker to the NFL and will not be a piece that can be replaced immediately. The defense has improved in getting turnovers and if the redzone defense can improve, they can take it to the next level on that side of the ball.

Entrenched in a current NCAA scandal, Arizona State has a lot of controversy surrounding the program but has the talent to make even more noise on the field, barring any mid-season changes from the NCAA. Knowing Arizona State isn’t a national power in football, that means it is that more likely the NCAA brings the hammer down if there is evidence. As a usual critic of the NCAA, good luck Arizona State fans as you are a prime candidate for the NCAA to make a statement out of. Back to the football team, they are led by Heisman hopeful Jayden Daniels who will be one of the more electric players in CFB this year. The entire team also returns 20 of 22 starters so the expectations will be very high. They will be returning four of 5 starting offensive linemen and both leading rushers from 2020. The defense also returns every starter and has an extra year in an already aggressive scheme. Arizona State is the team to beat on paper, but I still have questions about Herm Edwards in the college game and the scandal can be a big distraction, especially with the expectations unusual to this program. As for expectations go, it will be interesting to see the turn of the UCLA program in year 4 of the Chip Kelly era. Dorian Thompson-Robinson made a significant jump in 2020 and reduced many of the injuries and turnovers which plagued him and the team the first two years. With returning production on both sides of the ball, this appears to be the most experienced Chip Kelly team and is ready to take that next step after competing with the top teams in the conference in 2020. Unfortunately, they see both Oregon and Washington in 2021 for the conference schedule. I expect the offense to put up fantastic numbers, but the defense will still hold them back from taking that next step. Brian Norwood, formerly with Navy, will have another year with these players so I do expect them to be disruptive, but I also expect there to be mistakes causing big plays. UCLA will be fun in 2021 but still a few years from competing for the division title. Colorado is a step below the top 4 in this division, however they are also just as big of a step above rebuilding Arizona. The Colorado offseason was headlined by the return of Nate Landman for that defense and return leading rushers from 2019 and 2020, Alex Fontenot and freshman phenom Jarek Broussard, respectively. They also return 3 starters on the offensive line and an inexperienced quarterback means they should rely on the run game entering 2021. The defensive line is not very deep but the linebacking core should hide some mistakes shown there. The secondary is very talented but young so overall this Colorado defense will see better days in the future. For the sake of 2021, I expect the offense to carry this team so long as they can get average QB play. Arizona has its own quarterback problems as Grant Gunnell transferred out after the 2020 season and they are in a full fledge rebuild. As an outside viewer, it was truly awful watching Kevin Sumlin ruin this football team from conference relevance. Rich Rodriguez was not bringing conference championships to Tucson either, however Sumlin couldn’t recruit, lost the locker room, and even turned a Heisman hopeful in Khalil Tate into a benched former starter. While Tate was hardly an NFL prospect, he was exciting with his legs and Sumlin forced him into a pocket passer. Fast forward to the Jedd Fisch team and there is work to be done. The Wildcats do return their top 5 pass catchers and majority of the offensive lines, but it was also one of the worst offensive lines in P5 in 2020. There is a mutual understanding of where this Arizona program is currently post-Kevin Sumlin, so the expectations are low for Fisch. Jedd Fisch has done all the right things so far in recruiting message and staff hirings so buy-in is next.

Award Predictions:

Offensive Player of the Year: Jayden Daniels, QB, Arizona State

Defensive Player of the Year: Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, Oregon

Coach of the year: Jonathan Smith, Oregon State

Newcomer of the Year: Charlie Brewer, QB, Utah