2021 Big Ten Football Season Preview

-Photo via Michael Hickey/Getty Images

East:

1. Ohio State

2. Penn State

3. Indiana

4. Michigan

5. Maryland

6. Rutgers

7. Michigan State

West:

1. Wisconsin

2. Iowa

3. Nebraska

4. Minnesota

5. Purdue

6. Northwestern

7. Illinois

East Preview:

As we have come to understand, its Ohio State and everyone else in the Big Ten conference. While still losing a lot to the draft, Ohio State reloads again with a healthy staple of running backs, enough 5 stars in the QB position to distribute to the rest of the division and have two of the best wide receivers in the country in Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. Possibly a trip up somewhere if they overlook someone but Ohio State dominates this conference and will continue this run in 2021. While Indiana is a popular pick at 2nd in the East, I expect Penn State to have a bounce back year with a much-improved offense. The defense was underrated in a weird 2020 year, and they open week 1 @ Camp Randall against Wisconsin as an immediate gauge of the team. I expect Sean Clifford to have a much better 2021 season and they return both leading rushers from 2020. That non-conference game against Auburn will also be interesting as a test for that offense against a SEC defense. Indiana regressed a bit from 2020 as they did in 2019 but as we continue to mention, weird year. The defense has proven to be stingy under Allen and if Penix can stay healthy they will score some points. They also have a big test in the non-conference with Cincinnati, who has one of the best defenses in the country heading into 2021. I will be watching very closely to that week 1 matchup vs Iowa as that will be one of the toughest out of the gate. The separating factor from Penn State and Indiana is the uncertainty in the Indiana trenches. The offensive line is unproven and with Penix’s injury history, can be a big factor in whether Indiana can sustain this success under Tom Allen.

With Indiana surging in the East, we see Michigan taking the exact opposite route under Jim Harbaugh. Once thought as the man to take Michigan football to new heights, he is now on the precipice of truly being forced into taking that NFL job again. I don’t see Michigan firing Harbaugh either way, but things are not great in Ann Arbor right now. With all new staff changes outside of Josh Gattis, OC, I struggle to see the consistency needed for Michigan to compete in the East. Cade McNamara has been named the starting quarterback and they do return rising star at running back Hassan Haskins, but the defense remains a question. Ronnie Bell also returns at receiver and hopes to gain all-conference honors again in 2021. It’s no secret Michigan has recruited at a high level but the expected results that come with that high level of recruiting have not followed. I think Michigan will take care of rival Michigan State in 2021, I just don’t see any way this is the year they topple the Ohio State giant. Michigan has the highest variance of any team in the division because of their recruiting, unfortunately the coaching staff has left a lot to be desired. They do have two of the top three teams in the East in Indiana and Ohio State at home but that game in Happy Valley in November will be chaotic. Rutgers and Maryland are in very similar positions where the offense will be exciting and put-up points, unfortunately neither has the defense to make enough noise in this division. While I give Rutgers the edge for coaching, Maryland has already begun to recruit at a high level and cannot be taken lightly. The reason they are put ahead is because Maryland has Indiana, Michigan, and Penn State at home whereas Rutgers have all road games with those three. I expect Taulia to make waves in the conference, but he showed some young mistakes last year that you hope were improved in the offseason. Locksley and Schiano have a chance to make a real statement in terms of these respective rebuilds for 2021. Michigan State is in a tough situation in year 2 of Mel Tucker. A team riddled with transfers in and out, it will be interesting to see how they gel especially on defense. They return three proven starters in the secondary in Michael Dowell, Angelo Grose, and Xavier Henderson to man the defense. They also have 3 capable P5 running backs to lean on, however the question mark at quarterback is tough to gauge with their success. Anthony Russo transferred in from Temple and many outside the program expect him to win the job but there will be a battle. Mel Tucker got a late start in year 1 with barely being able to meet his team before game 1 so this will be another tough transition year. I like Mel Tucker and expect him to do well here, but Dantonio left the cupboard dry.

West Preview:

Like the East, this appears to be Wisconsin and the rest of the field. While I do think Iowa is very close in 2021, Wisconsin brings an elite defense, highly touted running back and quarterback, as well as a talented offensive line as always. Not to mention, Wisconsin plays one of the easiest schedules in the country missing out on Ohio State and having a home slate of Penn State, Michigan, Iowa, and Nebraska. This sets up for another Wisconsin West title. Iowa brings in one of the top running backs, centers, and defenses in the conference, so it has the tools to knock Wisconsin off the top. Unfortunately, their strengths are also Wisconsin’s strengths and as mentioned above, they play @ Camp Randall this year. Tyler Goodson will challenge Mo Ibrahim for the best back in the conference, along with Jalen Berger, and has the offensive line to carry this offense. I strongly question whether Spencer Petras can be enough to get Iowa over Wisconsin, but Iowa has shown in the past they don’t need dominant QB play to win the West. Iowa also has one of the best secondaries in the conference so if they can create some confusion for Graham Mertz then the division title is within reach. With a big gap between 2 and 3 as of now, Nebraska has a lot to prove heading into 2021, coincidentally with a top 3 most difficult schedule in the country. Although there are talks of a ridiculous scandal (Most P5 schools could be accused of these analyst issues) the team seems uber focused knowing how important gaining momentum is heading into Year 4 of the Scott Frost era. A looming matchup with Oklahoma will draw headlines, but the true test will be the division rivals of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa. If Nebraska goes 0-3 in those matchups, there could be some unrest with that fan base. In my opinion, Frost is the man for the job, but they need to give him time. The defense returns a lot of production and appears to lead the team and the offense will go as 4-year starter Adrian Martinez goes. They have a ton of talent on offense with Omar Manning and Samori Toure so the vertical pass game should improve. Nebraska is likely a year away from truly contending for the division, however a bowl game and noticeable progress could lead to a year of high expectations for 2022. Minnesota was much better than their 2020 record and could bring back one of the best offensive lines and running backs in the conference. If Tanner Morgan returns to 2019 form Minnesota can shoot up the division rankings but the defense is still a big question mark. They lost a lot to the draft from that 2019 team so the defense will be a year more experienced, but they won’t be up to snuff when compared to Wisconsin and Iowa. Chris Autman-Bell has been recently made day to day so it appears he will be back sooner rather than later, and Mo Ibrahim will be putting on a showcase for NFL scouts all year. If Minnesota can control the clock they will be tough to beat although if they get behind It could spell trouble for the offense.

Jeff Brohm returns another experienced offense and one of the most talented receivers in the country in David Bell. This coupled with a proven commodity in Jake Plummer and Zander Horvath the offense will again put-up points. As we have seen with this Purdue team under Brohm the defense will again hold this team back in 2021. Losing starters in Derrick Barnes and Lorenzo Neal will hurt and the recruiting under Brohm doesn’t promise any immediate replacements for that production. The offense is what separates this team from the bottom dwellers of the division, but they are still a few years away from contending for a division title. Brohm is the man, however some early success and scattered big wins may have sped up a rebuild that will take a long time to fix. Brohm has the program on the rise, and I expect another step in that rebuild in 2021. Northwestern and Illinois are not one in the same as Pat Fitzgerald is one of the best coaches in the conference, but they have one of the biggest rebuilds in the conference and have also announced they lost star running back Cam Porter for the season. This team is much better than 6th in the division but they have an uphill battle for 2021 and the schedule does no favors. Fitzgerald has taken this team from 4 wins to division champ in one offseason so you can truly never count him out and that’s what separates this team from last in the division. Unfortunately, some team must finish last in the division and this year it will be Illinois. The Fighting Illini have a ton of returning super seniors and a proven offensive line/running back staple. They have some talented, although unproven, receivers for Brandon Peters to toss around to. Peters is not a top QB in the conference so this team will be led by the run game. Brett Bielema will be in his first year as a Big Ten HC again and a transition from 4-3 to 3-4 defense could prove to be troublesome in year 1. I will be very interested to see how Bielema will fare outside of the Wisconsin system. Let’s be honest, we all know that’s the Barry Alvarez show and it’s unclear if Bielema was given a long enough leash to rebuild Arkansas in the SEC. They have kept things under wraps coming into Week 0 so the type of offense they run is unknown, but it’s expected they will continue to run the ball given the strengths of their personnel. There should never be expectations in “year 0” of a coaching change so although I am projecting them last in the division I think Bielema has a chance to make Illinois interesting quick in that recruiting footprint.

Award Predictions:

Offensive Player of the Year: Jalen Berger, RB, Wisconsin

Defensive Player of the Year: Zach VanValkenburg, EDGE, Iowa

Coach of the Year: James Franklin, Penn State

Newcomer of the year: Samori Toure, WR, Nebraska

PAC 12/ Big 12