2021 American Athletic Conference Season Preview

Everyone wants to talk about Cincinnati having an easy path to 12-0, not playing anyone and missing out on the college football playoff. I am here to tell you “Not so fast, my friend” (shoutout Lee Corso). The Bearcats are deservedly the talk of this conference, but the top half of the American conference isn’t a cake walk by any means.

Cincinnati by year's end has a high chance of being undefeated and in every conversation to be in the college football playoff. But the American has a team like SMU who will put up a ton of points with Tanner Mordecai at QB and a receiver that I am excited to see back on the field, Reggie Roberson. There is a dangerous UCF team that was once the powerhouse of the American who could give Cincy a run for their money. Then to go with those teams, there are mid-level teams that will be fighting for bowl spots in Memphis, Houston and possibly Tulane.

Standings Prediction:

1. Cincinnati

2. UCF

3. SMU

4. Houston

5. Tulane

6. Memphis

7. Tulsa

8. ECU

9. Navy

10. USF

11. Temple

Offensive Player of the Year:

Cincinnati QB Desmond Ridder

Defensive Player of the Year:

Cincinnati CB Ahmad Gardner

Coach of the Year:

Cincinnati Luke Fickell

Top Freshman:

UCF DB Jaiden Francois

Top Newcomer:

SMU TE Grant Calcaterra

Sleeper:

SMU

Breakout Player:

Cincinnati RB Jerome Ford

Team By Team Breakdown:

Cincinnati Bearcats

Record: 12-0

The Bearcats come into this season with high expectations and a shot at the college football playoff. Luke Fickell is a fantastic coach who will have Cincy up for any game that they have this year. It didn’t take any convincing last year to get up for some lesser games, this year with a favorable schedule with the toughest conference opponents at home. A tough back-to-back week at Indiana and at Notre Dame is keeping Cincinnati from an unbeaten season. Desmond Ridder and company will be just fine on offense, and we clearly see them winning all the rewards at the end of the year. The defense is as good as it gets at the college level, not many weaknesses on this defense.

UCF Knights

Record: 11-1

If Gus Malzahn can help improve this defense, he could give Cincinnati a run. One of the top quarterbacks in the country in Dillon Gabriel as well as three WRs in the transfer portal and two RBs to already go with big time playmaker Jaylon Robinson. Only question offensively is how Malzahn will work with Gabriel. Keeping the offense similar to what has worked with Gabriel in the past is best, we will see what happens with all the transfers meshing together with Gabriel. The good news defensively is that they bolstered the defensive line, and the defense should take a step forward. Only issue is how fast can they develop, specifically the secondary, to compete with the best of the best.

SMU Mustangs

Record: 9-3

I am a lot higher on SMU than a lot of people. Tanner Mordecai is in for a breakout year this year, as well as the playmakers of Reggie Roberson, Rashee Rice, and Grant Calcaterra. The backfield is deep and that is led by Ulyssess Bentley IV and as excited as I am with Mordecai, I am not sure they take much of a step back on offense this year. The defense let up almost 31 PPG last year but made a great coordinator hire in Jim Leavitt. They have some guys back but lose a top DB that could be difficult to replace. SMU will be high-powered on offense and have the chance to compete with anybody in that matter. Defensively, they will still struggle to stop teams and that will make it difficult to compete with the top.

Houston Cougars

Record: 9-3

A very favorable schedule where Houston avoids UCF and Cincy this year will make them seem better than they really are. Clayton Tune at QB should be good again this year after having a solid year last year. Dana Holgorsen is needing to have a big third year after going 7-13 through the first two seasons, he brings in a handful of transfers on the offensive side of the ball who should provide impact early. The defense last year couldn’t commit many turnovers, but they return nine starters and bring in transfers of Latrell Bankston and Alex Hogan that should cause for an intriguing defense.

Tulane Green Wave

Record: 5-7

Tulane has a very tough first half of the year. They meet Oklahoma, Ole Miss, UCF, and Cincy early in the year. They could have a rough start to the year but turn it around by year's end. Michael Pratt is a great QB who will have another great year and will put up some numbers in big out of conference games with Oklahoma and Ole Miss. I am excited to see how this Tulane team competes with some tough competition out of the gate. Tulane in conference last year was not great, letting up almost 30 PPG. They will return some key pieces but some of the offenses they face this year, it may not matter so much.

Memphis Tigers

Record: 7-5

I look forward to what Grant Gunnell could do in this offense replacing Brady White. Calvin Austin III will cover up some errors but also help Gunnell out along the way. Memphis had 19 turnovers a year ago, the offense must cut down on that this year to have a chance to be bowl eligible. On defense, they were a solid unit last year and return Thomas who opted out last year. They don’t have a defense near the level of Cincinnati, but they have a unit that can compete in any game this year.

Tulsa Golden Hurricanes

Record: 5-7

After playing in the AAC championship game last year, Tulsa will struggle to be anywhere near that standard this year. The QB spot could be questionable this year and the WR position needs an impact player to emerge in that room. The offensive line should be solid and open some holes for a deep running back room. Shamari Brooks should be back after a knee injury last year. Obviously, Zaven Collins made a huge name for himself and helped Tulsa have one of the best defenses in the AAC. They lose a couple more impactful players where I think it could be more difficult for them to succeed in the way they did a year ago.

ECU Pirates

Record: 4-8

When you look at the QB position and the playmakers around the QB, Holton Ahlers. ECU looks like they could compete well in the middle of the pack of the AAC. The offensive line, however, would have to make huge strides this year to put them in that position to succeed. They allowed 23 sacks in nine games last year, not good. It should be interesting to see what kind of progress the Pirates make on defense this year. They have slowly taken steps forward as a unit each year and return a lot of guys from last year.

Navy Midshipmen

Record: 3-9

Navy doesn’t normally have consecutive losing seasons. They rebounded from a three-win performance into a nine-win season the year after. I think the offense is continuously regressing and I am not sure they take many strides forward with Xavier Arline. They lost their top four rushers from last year and they already averaged less than 4 yards a carry last year. Could the defense keep Navy in some games this year? They ended well last year and returned a lot from that unit. Diego Fagot will have a big impact for Navy on this side of the ball and I expect a huge year from him.

USF Bulls

Record: 2-10

The USF offense is returning almost everyone. The bad news, they weren’t good at all last year. They let up 30 sacks last year, scoring 23 PPG and averaging 5 yards per play. A couple of transfer quarterbacks could provide a spark, Jarren Williams from Miami and Cade Fortin from North Carolina. The offense was good last year, but they were good compared to how the defense performed. Just under 40 points per game last year means that they must get better this year. They brought in a load of transfers on that side of the ball to just try to find something that works.

Temple Owls

Record: 2-10

Temple was a program that had at least six wins in six consecutive years but last year was tough on everyone, especially Temple. It was an odd year, and I don’t think they got any better. They lost their starting QB to Michigan State and must restart there, they also have transfers coming in at RB and WR that could take a little bit to gel and come together. They averaged less than 20 points per game last year. The other side of the ball is going to deal with the same thing, they add a ton of transfers that they are going to try and make work this year. Temple could have just been a team that was hit heavier with how their season went last year, but I don’t have high hopes for this team unless the transfers all make good impacts.