2021 NCAA March Madness Sunday Sweet 16 Preview

The Sunday Sweet 16 matchups provide a lot more heavyweights and better matchups. A breakdown of everything you need to know when predicting or betting these games. We sleep in May.

(1) Gonzaga vs (5) Creighton

Game Lines: Gonzaga -13.5, O/U 158

Gonzaga is looking for their unbeaten season, currently 28-0 the Bulldogs show no signs of stopping the momentum they’ve carried all season. Gonzaga has too many quality players in Jalen Suggs, Corey Kispert, Drew Timme, Joel Ayayi, and Andrew Nembhard to have too big of a letup and when you have guys that are as good as they are, you have to play your best game against this Gonzaga team. Gonzaga averages 92.1 PPG on the season and shoots 55% from the field. Absurd numbers for a team that has taken care of business against any team that has been put in their way. Creighton seems to have overcome the Greg McDermott comments and come together to reach the sweet 16. A very close 1-point victory over UCSB and then a 14-point win against Ohio has Creighton up against the number 1 overall seed. Marcus Zegarowski has played well so far in the tournament but hasn’t faced a Jalen Suggs yet. Mitch Ballock and Devin Mahoney can knock down a plethora of threes and if everything goes perfect for Creighton, they could have a chance at winning this game.

The issue is that Creighton hasn’t always been the most consistent team and it’s not like they have shown enough to compete with Gonzaga. A missed layup by UCSB in the first round has Creighton where they are now. We will have to see just how competitive Creighton can make this one.

Prediction: I don’t think Creighton can hang with Gonzaga anywhere near the way Oklahoma did and will have to shoot out of their minds to keep it close. Gonzaga easily covers the -13.5. The over 158 will hit as well in this one.

(1) Michigan vs (4) Florida State

Game Lines: Michigan -2.5, O/U 143.5

Michigan has responded well in the NCAA tournament without Senior Isaiah Livers who is out indefinitely with a foot injury. Eli Brooks, Franz Wagner, and Hunter Dickinson have played well to put Michigan in the sweet 16. Michigan does a great job of sharing the ball and the Wolverines rank top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency according to KenPom joining Gonzaga as the only other team in the sweet 16 to have that accomplishment. They will have their hands full with this Florida State team that had an impressive victory over Colorado after coming off a close game versus UNCG. Florida State has the same philosophy as every other Leonard Hamilton team we have seen before. They are going to play 10+ guys and they are going to guard you and make things hard with their athleticism. NBA draft talent Scottie Barnes comes off the bench, but MJ Walker and RaiQuan Gray carry the load for this team offensively.

Michigan will miss Livers in this game as the Seminoles do a good job of defending. Michigan will need to establish Dickinson early in this game and take control of the paint. Florida State will have an opportunity to win this game if they can limit their turnovers. In their six losses this season the Seminoles have averaged 17.7 turnovers per game.

Prediction: Another back-and-forth game that comes down to the final few minutes, but I think Florida State defends well enough to win this game outright as well as keep the total under 143.5.

(2) Alabama vs (11) UCLA

Game Lines: Alabama -6.5, O/U 145.5

Mick Cronin has coached his tail off in the first 3 games of the NCAA tournament. Every year we see a First Four team advance to the sweet 16 and this year it is UCLA. UCLA has shot tremendously from the floor and Johnny Juzang, a Kentucky transfer, is averaging 22.3 PPG so far in the tournament and Jaime Jacquez is averaging 16.7. UCLA blew past a great defensive team in Abilene Christian and looks like a threat to a final four run for Alabama. The Crimson Tide like to run and they like to put up threes. This leads to a lot of possessions and one of the faster paces of play in the NCAA. Nate Oats, however, does have his squad defending at a high rate ranking third in the country in defensive efficiency according to KenPom. Jahvon Quinerly, a Villanova transfer, has been solid down the stretch for Alabama and if he can continue his 44% three-point shooting while pairing that with the scoring ability of Herb Jones and John Petty Alabama will be fine in this one.

So far in the tournament, UCLA has defended the three-point line well, allowing only 25.5% thus far. They also haven’t seen a team shoot it the way Alabama does. But, if there’s one thing that you can guarantee from Mick Cronin and the Bruins, it’s that they will defend and play hard. I expect more of the same in this one and a fantastic game all around.

Prediction: Alabama has just enough to stop UCLA and wins on a late possession to advance to the Elite Eight. UCLA covers +6.5 and the game goes over 145.5.

(6) USC vs (7) Oregon

Game Lines: USC -2, O/U 138.5

Finally getting a rematch of these two Pac-12 foes is going to result in a phenomenal game. USC had a dominant performance over Oregon back on February 22. I expect the Ducks to be more competitive in this game. After having a no-contest against VCU, the Ducks routed Iowa in a 15-point victory where they looked great offensively. Oregon has great guards in Will Richardson and Chris Duarte as well as some athleticism up-front in Eugene Omoruyi. However, Evan Mobley will be a different beast compared to Luka Garza. Garza, a phenomenal scorer and player of the year, does not possess the same athletic ability that Evan Mobley has inside. Mobley has athleticism and length and controls the paint. USC will need a really good game from its guards in Tahj Eaddy and Drew Peterson.

Dana Altman will have his guys more prepared for this one than he did in February and we will see another great game between Oregon and USC. I expect Evan Mobley to control the paint and Oregon not having it so easy as they did against Iowa.

Prediction: The Ducks come away with a one-possession victory over the Trojans and advance to a date with Gonzaga. Oregon outright and under 138.5.