2021 March Madness Final Four Preview

The Final Four has finally arrived and is filled with everything that we could have hoped for. The best team is still in the tournament in Gonzaga, the cinderella team that has somehow made it this far in UCLA, a deserved team who we still don’t feel like we know enough about in Houston, and a team that we believe can compete with the best in the tournament in Baylor. After being robbed of a top 2 matchup in Gonzaga and Baylor earlier in the year because of covid, we once again could have this opportunity on Monday. After all, it may not be March, but we still have the chance of some madness.

(1) Baylor vs (2) Houston

Game Lines: Baylor -5 O/U 134.5

Houston has had the easier path of any team so far, the best seed that the Houston Cougars have played is 10 seeded Rutgers and they deserved to lose that game. Many people are still unsure about Houston because of that exact stat, they have not beaten a single digit seed to this point, and no one thought they would be in the Final Four because they played in the American Conference with a lackluster schedule. They will still have a chance to win this game and have a huge advantage that could determine the outcome of this game.

Houston is one of the best defensive teams in the country and they have proved that all tournament long. Offensively they aren’t always the best and haven’t shot over 40% besides the first-round game against Cleveland State. Houston wins games by being the eighth-best defensive team according to KenPom and they are first in field goal defense this year. Where I think Houston can win this game though is on the offensive glass. In previous articles, I have talked about the Cougars averaging over 14 offensive rebounds a game and they have continually averaged that this tournament. The reason this is such a big advantage in this one is Baylor’s lack of defensive rebounding. The Bears don’t have much size, but they have also allowed 8.5 offensive rebounds a game so far in the tournament against teams that aren’t half as good as Houston.

On the other side, Baylor is an offensive juggernaut and their three guards Butler, Mitchell, and Teague have done exactly what they have done all year in this tournament. Baylor is averaging 83 points per game and is third in offensive efficiency. This is the same preview as when they played Arkansas. Arkansas and Houston are both top ten defensive rated teams, so can Houston slow down Baylor, unlike Arkansas?

As previously stated, Baylor struggles on the boards. It will be even more apparent in this game for the team that ranks 131st nationally in total rebounds. Davion Mitchell will be assigned the task of guarding Quentin Grimes and if he can stay out of foul trouble, he can take them into the national championship game. If Baylor can knock down the outside shot and defensive rebound, they should have no issues in winning this game.

Prediction: I think that Houston will get to the offensive glass at an alarming rate but the offensive struggles at times can be too much to overcome. Houston will fight for all 40 minutes in this one and test Baylor. I think Houston keeps it close and covers the 5-point spread but Baylor advances.

(1) Gonzaga vs (11) UCLA

Game Lines: Gonzaga -14 O/U 145.5

Can UCLA keep up with Gonzaga in this Final Four? Gonzaga has beat every team they have faced but one by double digits this year. That single-digit win they had was back on December 2 against West Virginia. Gonzaga is still trying to break through in college basketball with a national championship. This whole season for the Zags means nothing if they can’t win that championship.

Luckily for Gonzaga, they will face an 11 seed UCLA team that has made an incredible run in this tournament. Gonzaga has scored at a high rate all year and is averaging 92.9 points per game and has scored under 80 points only three times all year and all three games they won by double digits and scored in the 70s. To go along with this, Gonzaga is only allowing 69.3 points per game and opponents are shooting under 42% from the field. Gonzaga can do it all with their All Americans Drew Timme, Corey Kispert, and Jalen Suggs, but compared to other teams, this Bulldogs team has been battle-tested by many powerhouses in the non-conference and never has looked too challenged in any game they have played this year. Led by their All Americans, Gonzaga has a different toughness about them and can lift the trophy on Monday.

UCLA is coming into this one as historic underdogs but has knocked off number 2 seed Alabama and number 1 seed Michigan in back-to-back games. After losing four straight to end the regular season the Bruins have now won 5 in a row in this tournament and have made an improbable run to the Final Four. Johnny Juzang has been incredible in this tournament after scoring 28 of the team’s 51 points he will be needing to do more of the same. UCLA will need to find a way to control the tempo in this one, a run and gun type of game will suit Gonzaga more than UCLA. If UCLA wants to be competitive in this one, they will need to take care of the basketball, shoot it well, and slow the pace of play down.

Mick Cronin has had his guys ready for every game this tournament and they have shown a different type of toughness to them. Look for UCLA to come out right away in this game and take it at Gonzaga physically and try to get them rattled. If UCLA can make Gonzaga think twice about what they are doing and get a little bit flustered, they have a chance in this one. The first 5 minutes are key for the Bruins and I believe will decide if we have a blowout in this one.

Prediction: It will not surprise me one bit if Gonzaga comes out and rolls in this one. However, I do think Mick Cronin will have his guys with the mentality that no one believes in them and they will fight in this one. Cody Riley will need to slow down Drew Timme in this one, but I do think UCLA keeps this one competitive. Gonzaga advances to the national title game in their second only single-digit victory as UCLA covers the spread.