2021 College Football Sleepers and Disappointments

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What does it mean to be a sleeper in college football today? None of these sleepers are going to be in the college football playoff. There are only four teams that make it and realistically you can pretty much bet on some sort of Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, Georgia, Oklahoma combo whoever you see fit. You more than likely won’t be wrong, and the system will end up working out like that. Instead, in this article we try to look at some teams that don’t have high projections. Whether that is writers rating them low in their conference, sportsbooks having too low of a win total that I expect them to exceed or a team that will just make life difficult for anyone they face. Each case is different but here are my 2021 college football sleepers.

Sleepers:

Texas Tech: Texas Tech has been projected as a bottom 2 or maybe 3 team in the Big 12 this year. In our projections, we had them finishing 6th but with a 7-5 record and making a bowl game. In that article, we go more in depth on what we see from Texas Tech. In short, it is a make-or-break year and I like the transfer of Tyler Shough and how they stack up against the Big 12. The over/under on the win total for them is 5.5, I would be looking hard at that over.

Kansas State: Another team that was mentioned in that same article previewing the Big 12 was Kansas State. A big week one matchup with Stanford could set the tone for the rest of the season. We had Kansas State finishing right behind Texas Tech, but I think this team will all be about their health. They were a good team last year and had a hot start with Skylar Thompson until he was injured. These injuries also decimated the defense, a healthy team could have the Wildcats surpassing their 5.5-win total.

California: We know that Cal isn’t going to come out and compete for the Pac 12 North title, but we do think that Cal has the chance to be good this year and finish third in that division. They return a lot on the offensive side and the defensive side and with a healthy Chase Garbers, they can be a dangerous team out west. California doesn’t have the easiest of schedules. Nevada will be tough to start the year, then heading to TCU for a tough matchup then also facing off against Washington and Oregon away from home. The only reason that I think California could be a sleeper is because I think they find a couple of upsets on their way to a bowl appearance this year. Whether that be Washington, Oregon, or USC they are more than capable of knocking one of them off.

Wisconsin: It depends on what your expectation for Wisconsin is this year. Their O/U win total on most sportsbooks sits at about 9.5 wins. The reason they are a sleeper for me is because I believe they go 12-0, run the table in the West, and give Ohio State all they can handle in the championship game. This team is loaded from top to bottom. Then you look at their schedule this upcoming fall and I realistically am having a hard time finding a game where they wouldn’t be favored and should win. They get Penn State at home, Iowa at home, Michigan at home, and a neutral game at Soldier Field against Notre Dame. This will be the year that Wisconsin has a chance at a big ten title and an opportunity to play in the college football playoff.

Now that we have talked about the sleeper teams, let’s talk about who will disappoint this year. With good reason, a lot of high-level programs every year are overrated and over ranked. Name alone gets you a lot further in college athletics than some might think. Each offseason we think that Texas or Michigan is going to be right back to a top 10 team, it doesn’t always work that way. Some teams fall flat and can save their seasons, and others go on a downward spiral. Let’s check out this season's disappointing teams.

Disappointments:

Notre Dame: Let’s start off with the positives for Notre Dame, they have a great defense that will be good again even under a new defensive coordinator. On offense, Kyren Williams had a great year last year and looks to be a more than capable back for Notre Dame. Now, some of the not-so-great things, new defensive coordinator could mean new troubles for Notre Dame. Although it was a great hire and from most reports it seems the scheme should be the same, but you can never fully trust a new hire to transition smoothly. More importantly, Jack Coan will be the starting QB this year, a guy who wasn’t great at Wisconsin and certainly won’t scare anyone on defense this year. Coan could have been a great transfer if they were asking him to succeed in last year’s offense. The one that had a great offensive line and weapons all around. Instead, they lose 9 offensive starters including four offensive lineman who paved the way last year. I think Notre Dame is at best 8-4 this year and that is just handing them wins on the road at places like Florida State, Virginia Tech, and Virginia.

Indiana: The Hoosiers were a team last year that won a lot of close games. They went 6-2 last year, but their most impressive performance was not getting entirely blown out by Ohio State. They beat teams they don’t normally beat like Michigan and Penn State who were having down years. They return a lot of talent, and I am a huge fan of Tom Allen. His guys clearly love to play for him, and he knows how to motivate them. However, on offense the line isn’t great and that is bad news for a guy like Michael Penix Jr who hasn’t been able to finish the year in his first three seasons. There isn’t one thing that makes you not want to believe in Indiana, but when you look at last season and see the performances, it is not as impressive as you think. Indiana enjoyed a great year during an unprecedented time in college football last year and that will change this year. Indiana will go either 7-5 or 6-6 this year. Which in the grand scheme of things for an Indiana program, isn’t the worst. But regarding expectations from some people for Indiana, they will underachieve.

Florida: Emory Jones has been at Florida since 2018 and nothing he has done has shown me that he is ready to take control of this team and lead them to anything close to last year. I think that what happened last year with Florida, will be flipped this year. The offense was lights out and carried them throughout the year. This year with the pieces leaving offensively, specifically Kyle Trask and Kyle Pitts, there will be some more growing pains for this program under Dan Mullen. Mullen had trouble staying out of the media last year with trying to get people to the stadium and starting fights. He also hasn’t been shy at bringing down his former QB in Kyle Trask by saying that Emory Jones can make passes that Trask couldn’t. Which is clearly just not true at the stage of these two guys careers. Defensively, Florida can’t get much worse than they did last year. However, they still are in the SEC and will be facing good offenses throughout the year. I am still not sold on there being enough there for Florida to make any run in the SEC this year. I believe they go 7-5 this year and won’t have any shot at an SEC title game like last year.

Northwestern: Do not get fooled by Northwestern this year. An impressive showing by them last year and they really put it all together to accomplish some great things. This year when Northwestern more than likely starts the year 4-0, don’t get fooled. They won’t win any of their last 8 games of the season and I am not sure they will win week 1 either. I think they finish the year 4-8 after starting 4-0 but wouldn’t be surprised if this was a three-win team at the end of the year. Peyton Ramsey helped stabilize this offense last year, he is gone. They now have three options at QB this year that could be a revolving door that never settles under the struggles that they face this year. They also had a historically good defense last year, and now they lose some valuable pieces and must fix a lot of things. They are another big ten team that enjoyed a good year last year in unprecedented times.