UFC 280 Bets & Picks

Fight Island is back and so is the stacked UFC PPVs we have come to long for these days. From the main card top to bottom, to the prelims, there are plenty of good fights. With this being an early U.S. start time due to being on Fight island, we don't have to wait long in the day for violence. Make sure those weekend chores are done early because you won't want to miss any of this!

Sean Brady (-140) vs Belal Muhammad (+120)

Let's just get this out of the way, the Khabib narrative for this fight is a net zero for me personally. This is a great stylistic matchup and although Khabib in the corner may help Belal, there are certain "deficiencies" in Belal's game that has led to fans not rooting for him as much. He doesn't have a big submission threat or the power to end the fight in one punch so the Khabib factor may not show itself in those ways. Both great grapplers, I see Brady as a bit more dangerous and willing to end the fight in this way but the way Belal has grappled his way to the top has been undeniable. My fear for Belal in this fight is if the grappling happens to cancel each others out, this could end up in a stand up fight. To put it lightly, Sean Brady has an advantage on the feet. I expect Belal to want this fight on the cage in a wrestle heavy approach. I expect Sean Brady to mix it up well and make this a tough 3 rounds for Belal.

BIYC Pick: Sean Brady by Unanimous Decision (UD)

Mateusz Gamrot (-215) vs Beneil Dariush (+185)

I love this matchup and love that Dariush is willing to truly fight anyone to test his own metal. This is a loaded division and once contracted to fight Islam, he now faces a similarly talented grappler with a work in progress resume. Gamrot is aggressive and is always looking for the finish, particularly on the mat. This could technically be one of the better matchups in the division outside of Islam and Charles Oliveira today. Dariush tends to revert back to certain striking deficiencies when he gets tired so a 3 round fight may play in his favor. I believe there is value in Dariush at +185 given his ground skills but I believe Gamrot to be too strong. I expect this to be a great fight but I don't see it reaching 3 rounds.

BIYC Pick: Mateusz Gamrot by 2nd round SUB

Petr Yan (-280) vs Sean O'Malley (+235)

The step up in competition for Suga Sean is massive here but it feels like fans (me included) have been clamoring for this to happen for awhile now. I would have liked to see him in 5 rounds before we get this close to a title shot but its a good matchup on paper as well. Sean O'Malley is such a debated fighter and it largely has to do with his massive amount of skills but the character he is that some don't appreciate outside of the cage. I have some questions on durability for Suga Sean and no, its not the leg kicks. Yan mixes his kicks up well so this will be a new challenge when it comes to checking kicks for O'Malley. That Chito Vera shot was a perfect kick. Credit to Vera because he earned that win, but Suga Sean isn't weak in the legs like the narrative tends to read. On paper this is a good matchup for O'Malley as Yan has been a slow starter in past fights and had trouble, at times, with the reach Sandhagen presented. You could also make a great argument that O'Malley is one of the best at truly utilizing his reach advantage. The key to this fight will always be the first round and more specifically, the first 2 minutes. If Petr Yan wins the first round this fight is likely over. That being said, it will take some time for Yan to figure out O'Malley if at all. O'Malley has true power and is creative to mix it up but I also don't see him finishing Yan in 3 rounds as he is as tough as they come. We like the upset!

BIYC Pick: Sean O'Malley by Decision

Aljamain Sterling [C] (-175) vs TJ Dillashaw (+150)

How many of us predicted this? Aljo as champ on the other side of the Petr Yan duet and TJ Dillashaw fighting for his 3rd opportunity at a Bantamweight title. This is one of the more intriguing fights on the card as its hard not to wonder how the time off will hurt Dillashaw here. Dillashaw was a Division 1 wrestling and Aljo was division 3, yet most would likely give the wrestling/grappling advantage to Aljo. Aljo also has a clear advantage in the jiu jitsu department but TJ has an equal advantage on the feet. This truly is the epitome of who will force their best on the other. Aljo can backpack like nobody I have ever seen but without that backpack or body lock his success has waned. In rounds 4 and 5 of the second Yan fight, Aljo appeared to get tired and the sloppy takedowns were shown again as we saw in fight 1 with Yan. Aljo has an unpredictable style both striking and wrestling, but that at times can play into the favor of the opponent. Dillashaw appears to be much more advanced in the grappling department than Yan and will likely fare better on the mat. However, TJ showed in the Sandhagen fight he can get hit and hit often. Aljo doesn't have the power to end the fight but his pressure is a real threat. This really feels like the closest to 50/50 on this card, which makes it tough to predict. I see a scenario where Aljo will not be able to hold TJ to the mat the same way he did Yan. This could force another tired Aljo which is too dangerous with TJ in the octagon.

BIYC Pick: TJ Dillashaw by 3rd Round TKO

Islam Makhachev (-190) vs Charles Oliveira [C] (+160)

I have underestimated Charles Oliveira in the past and likely will pick against him again in the future but he doesn't deserve to be the underdog here. I recognize most of this is a game from Vegas to get people to bet, but the line hasn't moved much all week for a reason. I haven't been excited for a fight like this in a long time and its largely due to the skill both of these fighters possess. Its no secret Islam got this chance with the Khabib relation but his skills also speak for themselves. At this point its the resume that does not. However, by all accounts the only one willing to fight Islam in the top 5 was Dariush although the fight fell through. Who's best will prevail? Islam's top pressure or Oliveira's overall pressure? Oliveira truly is one of the most well rounded fighters I have ever watched and continues to build an incredible resume with top notch finishes. Winning 11 in a row with 10 finishes (shoutout Tony Ferguson) and confidence through the roof. What makes this fight so intriguing is how each fighter is so unbeatable in different ways. Oliveira shows a vulnerability that has only served him well, while Islam is very defensive and hardly makes mistakes to put him in position to be finished. Islam is not Khabib and doesn't win the same way, but that Dagestan pressure and mentality is truly something different and I buy into it. I predict a finish either way and I expect both fighters think the same thing.

BIYC Pick: Islam Makhachev by 3rd round SUB

---

Prelim Fight to Watch: Belal Muhammad vs Sean Brady

This is the easy answer, but also the obvious one. This is a great stylistic matchup and its possible we see a banger on the feet or a technical grappling match that will leave fans pleased either way. Belal has done some Philly shit talking in the lead up so there may be some extra heat to this one for Sean Brady.

Banger of the Night: Petr Yan vs Sean O'Malley

I expect this fight to go the distance and both fighters win on the feet. O'Malley has ground skills but Yan also has impressive takedowns if he wants them. O'Malley should look good early but once Yan figures it out we will see some leather thrown. Both fighters are DOWN

Biggest Chance of Upset: Charles Oliveira (v Islam Makhachev)

I picked Dillashaw to win as an underdog, but Oliveira shouldn't even be an underdog. It only feels right to place him here as he deserves more respect in that category. This is a great matchup that Oliveira has some clear advantages that he can use to end the fight.

Most to Lose: TJ Dillashaw (v Aljamain Sterling)

There isn't a lot to lose all together on this card, but TJ is 36 in a notoriously young division without a clear path to the title. We already know a move to 125 isn't in the cards, so he may just be chasing big fights at that rate. Its hard to see the motivation for a 4th title run, especially when you hear his comments regarding setting himself up outside of fighting.

Most to Gain: Islam Makhachev (v Charles Oliveira)

The only thing holding people back from Islam is his resume and Khabib relation. With a win against Charles Oliveira at his peak will prove a lot of doubters wrong. While we would no doubt see a rematch (Brazil please) the push behind Islam will be bigger than we even knew. Everyone, Dana included, is just waiting for Islam to get the chance to prove himself. A win against this Charles not only proves doubters wrong, but forges his own path away from Khabib due to his own success.

*All bets and Lines via DraftKings