UFC 277 Bets & Picks

I am not one to complain during a PPV weekend, but this card is weak for usual pay per view standards. I am a fan of both in the Co-Main and have interest in the main event, but the rest of the card does leave a bit to be desired. This could certainly be due to the stacked nature of UFC 276 and UFC London lately. Either way I will be watching so you can find my thoughts below

Magomed Ankalaev (-580) vs Anthony Smith (+440)

I am surprised by the odds here to be honest. I think Ankalaev is a future champion but Anthony Smith is a true veteran with real tools to challenge Ankalaev. Overall Anthony Smith will need to mix it up here as Ankalaev has one punch KO power but he also has the creative striking to mix up the angles necessary. Smith is largely counted out in the title picture because of that brutal loss to Glover, but he is now on a 3 fight finish streak. All of this being said, if Magomed Ankalaev can keep this fight on the feet he has the power to end the fight quickly. I do think the oddsmakers are disrespecting Lionheart here a little but I also expect an Ankalaev decision by round 3. I believe Lionheart will give Ankalaev a few problems in the later rounds but his power will ultimately sway the judges.

BIYC Pick: Magomed Ankalaev via DEC

Alexandre Pantoja (-195) vs Alex Perez (+165)

Both fighters are in a perfect opportunity to put their names on the map in the division and in the eyes of casual fans. Pantoja had a few tough losses early on but since 2018, has wins against Brandon Royval, Manel Kape, and Brandon Moreno. The only two losses since that time were to current champ Deiveson Figueiredo and rising fighter Askar Askarov. With a win against the 6th ranked fighter and 1/2 fighting for the interim belt now, Pantoja could find himself next in line for a title shot with a win. Although Askarov is above him in the rankings, he only fights once a year and the company does not have a rich history of rewarding inactivity unless you're Connor McGregor. The path to a title shot is a tad longer for Alex Perez even with a win, but a potential move to 135 for Figgy could accelerate that process. Pantoja has shown great grappling and scramble skills and I expect him to put on a show with his hands as well. Alex Perez always shows up to fight and if Pantoja brings the fight to him, I expect mutual war. This has potential for fight of the night!

BIYC Pick: Alexandre Pantoja via DEC

Sergei Pavlovich (-150) vs Derrick Lewis (+130)

Derrick Lewis versus a Russian? Derrick Lewis versus a good grappler? I believe we know how both of these go. Well, the fight is also in Texas and Pavlovich is a more technical striker than Lewis. We really can't pick this fight off history so forgo bets for this one, pick with your gut, and enjoy the show. Derrick Lewis is aware of his limitations and doesn't hide behind them so I expect him to swang and bang. I believe the deciding factor here will be whether Pavlovich will commit to mixing it up or wrestle throughout the entire fight. Derrick Lewis will have power throughout round 3 even if gassed so we will need a committed game plan from Pavlovich even if the first two rounds were perfect.

BIYC Pick: Derrick Lewis by 3rd RD KO

Brandon Moreno (-200) vs Kai Kara France (+170)

As good as the first fight was, it doesn't feel they are marketing it that way. Its an interim title and a rematch but the buzz doesn't quite reflect that. The first fight was only three rounds but both were looking to keep the fight on the feet and the fans were given a treat. Moreno clearly won the fight and especially after round 1 when he found his distance and timing when he really started to connect. Both fighters are now much improved, as well as fighting with supreme confidence so I expect a different fight this time around with 5 rounds- albeit still a banger. KKF is on a really good streak at the moment and fights out of one of the top tier gyms so we can expect a flawless game plan if he can stick to it. This will by my official vote for banger of the night but I also expect it to end in a finish. It will be closer than the first fight in my opinion, but I still expect the boxing and toughness of Moreno to prevail. I see a scenario where KKF is damaged and Moreno immediately jumps on the body lock for an eventual submission.

BIYC Pick: Brandon Moreno via 4th round SUB

Amanda Nunes (-265) vs Julianna Pena (+225)

Pena over Nunes in the first fight has to be the biggest upset in UFC history right? I am also not one to fully buy into the narrative that Nunes was "off" or "not there" that night. While I certainly buy the idea that she lacked respect for Pena, she looked good that night and was simply whipped. Pena took it to Nunes that night and wasn't willing to back down. I certainly cannot speak from experience, but it appeared as though Nunes thought Pena wouldn't be able to keep coming back and when she did, it was too late to adjust. Julianna gave Nunes a way out and she took it. Pena called her shot for years and cashed in her opportunity as she said, and she deserves unlimited respect for that moment as she is in the history books forever. I still see Amanda Nunes having the physical advantages in this fight and with proper focus, will the mental edge for Pena be enough? The fact that Nunes took training into her own hands worries me a tad - although it has worked out before as well - so I expected the odds to be closer. If Pena cannot finish Nunes early again I see the tide of the fight turning quickly. I personally will be rooting for the story of Pena and her to defend her title, but I can't get passed those physical advantages for Nunes.

BIYC Pick: Amanda Nunes by 3rd round SUB

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Prelim fight to watch: Nicolae Negumereanu vs Ihor Potieria

Both fighters are still relatively unknown so there are no rankings implications here, but both fighters will be looking to swing and make this interesting for the fans. Ihor has some serious power and I don't expect this to reach a decision. If you can get to the card early enough, don't miss this one.

Banger of the Night: Brandon Moreno vs Kai Kara France

I wasn't lying when I said this above! I think both fighters are on an incredible confidence boost right now and the first fight was good even in 3 rounds. I expect a finish but both fighters are durable so a 5 round war is not out of the question. It's impossible for either fighter to take a boring approach to this game and that benefits the fans (and the winner).

Biggest Chance of Upset: Anthony Smith (v Magomed Ankalaev)

This is slightly cheating because I went against my only upset pick above, but it feels necessary to highlight the chances of Lionheart in this fight. Every time we see him counted out he proves the media/community wrong and does his thing in spectacular fashion. Smith is a good grappler and can stick behind the jab to open up his entire arsenal. If Ankalaev is sloppy or underestimates Smith we could see a big upset here. Ankalaev being a -580 favorite does not sit well with me even though I believe he will win the fight.

Most to Lose: Derrick Lewis (v Sergei Pavlovich)

Another fight in Texas for Derrick Lewis and its actually becoming a bad thing. Lewis has power in the division that only Ngannou can compete with and that is impossible to count out, however there is a group of new talent in the divison with the likes of Ciryl Gane, Tai Tuivasa, and Tom Aspinall that would give him fits. In fact, he has already lost to two of those fighters. The path to a title is nearly non existent for Derrick Lewis with a loss here and he even admitted post weigh in that it was a must win for him.

Most to Gain: Julianna Pena (v Amanda Nunes)

This seems weird given Pena holds arguably the greatest upset in the UFC already, but a win here solidifies herself as the best female in the world given the stature of her division and beating Nunes twice. She would have the pick of choices for super fights as the only thing stopping Schevchenko from moving up is two losses to Nunes already. Not a lot of the community feels the first fight was legit - as proven by the odds - but as we saw with Aljamain Sterling in his rematch with Petr Yan, there is a reason they fight these matchups out. Anything can happen and a win here truly skyrockets Pena to stardom.

*All odds via DraftKings