UFC 278 Bets and Picks

I am generally complementary of the UFC Pay per view cards, but this weekend is largely top heavy. The last three fights on the main card are fantastic, but Romanov vs Tybura is now on the prelims and one of the better young prospects in Tyson Pedro is participating in a tune up fight. I am not against this approach for young fighters - especially after a layoff - but it ultimately brings the prestige of the card down overall. However, I have a lot to say on this main card so lets jump right into it.

Merab Dvalishvili (-140) vs Jose Aldo (+120)

Styles makes fights, and this matchup sure is a fight to look forward to. Jose Aldo has come to be known as an "Anti-wrestler" for his ability to defend takedowns across multiple weight classes throughout his career. Merab has come to find himself called by some as the "Khabib of Bantamweight". While I may not subscribe to this theory his ability to get a takedown on every opponent he has faced is impressive nonetheless. I do believe Merab will secure a few takedowns, but I am not positive he will reach the magic "4" number he has secured on every opponent. Aldo will have a massive edge on the feet and even in three rounds I see a finish from Aldo if Merab cannot secure multiple takedowns. This is a narrow path to victory for Merab, thankfully for him it seems being a great wrestler with an overhand is the best base for MMA. Like it or not, the style can be very effective and Aldo must be prepared. I wouldn't expect this fight to reach banger of the night status, but I do expect both fighters to display impressive skills. Ultimately, I feel the takedown defense from Aldo will be effective enough to secure him a decision win.

BIYC Pick: Jose Aldo by DEC

Paulo Costa (-345) vs Luke Rockhold (+285)

This truly is as tough of a fight to call on the card and in the last few cards in my opinion. Costa has looked off his last few outs, although against top competition, and Rockhold has the same notion with an added multi year layoff. Both fighters are looking to make a statement and both generally win by way of finish. Rockhold has the skills to genuinely challenge Adesanya for the Middleweight title but as we know, it takes more than just skills to be a champion. Has the chin and brain recovered from the 3 year layoff? Has he learned from his self proclaimed focus and motivation issues post winning the UFC title? He is also 37 years old which many would consider the downturn of his prime. However, Rockhold looks to be in great shape and his move to Light Heavyweight was also concerning. Costa appears to have made weight with ease - mentioning all fight week how light he was this camp - and he claims a new motivation. I believe Costa is also well aware of the perceived chin and pressure issues Rockhold has struggled with in the past. I fully expect Costa to come out with intense pressure looking to finish the fight from the start. As mentioned above, Rockhold doesn't deal with pressure well but he has a massive advantage on the ground. As big as Costa is, I firmly believe Rockhold could keep him on the ground and even finish him there similar to the way he beat Weidman. Luke Rockhold doesn't have the best offensive wrestling but Costa's pressure leaves him open for those opportunities. This fight is so intriguing to me given how easily I see either winning this fight. Costa is about as bad of a matchup as possible for Rockhold, yet he also has the skills to make quick work of Costa as Adesanya did. I will lean into the introduction of Jason Parillo into his camp and believe Rockhold comes out much more disciplined. We love underdogs here, Luke Rockhold by 2nd round TKO.

BIYC Pick: Luke Rockhold by 2nd round TKO

Kamaru Usman (-320) vs Leon Edwards (+265)

The first fight between these two was admittedly boring as hell, but both have improved their weaknesses in big ways. Everyone understands the improvements Usman has made on the feet. His jab has become one of the best in the company and his power has only improved with his technique. His wrestling was also elite for a long time so this combination, plus his mental fortitude, it starts to make sense why Usman is P4P # 1. Leon Edwards has improved his wrestling and Jiu Jitsu leaps and bounds - as evident against Nate Diaz - but his striking has also become much more diverse. His clinch striking has become a legit weapon from a previous weakness and his ability to fight so well across both stances could give Usman and his jab some trouble. His footwork is still improving and he has also added elbows to his repertoire which we see prominently in the clinch. We are essentially seeing these guys rematch on steroids (figure of speech, relax) given how much improvements each has made. I won't lie, I am a bit nervous for Usman here. I feel he is smart enough to understand the path to this victory is rather simple, yet boring, for him and that may be a problem. Usman has already defeated Leon by way of wrestling dominance. Usman is now at a point in his career where fans and himself alike, expect finishes. While I don't expect Usman to come out similar to the first fight with Covington, I do have a feeling he attempts to make a statement on the feet similar to the way he did with Masvidal. Kamaru has proven he has the power to end the fight but similar to the matchup between Usman and Burns, we see technique can best power in many ways. If Usman gets trigger happy on the feet and largely omits wrestling, I would expect a massive upset of the P4P # 1. Kamaru continues to show he has the mental toughness to not overlook anybody and come in with a chip on his shoulder so I don't necessarily buy the notion he is more focused on Chimaev or Canelo. I feel Usman will ultimately fight this in a smart way to continue his legacy, but I am worried.

BIYC Pick: Kamaru Usman by DEC

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Prelim Fight to watch: Alexandr Romanov vs Marcin Tybura

Its criminal this fight was put on the prelims, but I understand you want a strong ending into the lead up to the main card. Romanov is arguably the second best prospect in the division (Its still Aspinall at the top) and is well rounded, with skills to end the fight on the feet and on the mat. I expect Romanov to make another statement and continue his rise up the ranks.

Banger of the Night: Paulo Costa vs Luke Rockhold

Both fighters love to finish fights and they both want to make a statement. That's the direct recipe out of the "Banger" recipe book. Rockhold has added some unusual intensity towards Costa which only adds to the fire. While this may end quickly, I expect it to be fun while it lasts.

Biggest Chance of an Upset: Jose Aldo (v Merab Dvalishvili)

Plenty of options here, but this is the one fight where I truly felt Aldo should be the favorite. This style has worked very well for Aldo in the past, although Merab shows a persistence that Aldo has never seen before outside the training room. I am very intrigued by which "best" becomes the ultimate best and I will be betting on Aldo.

Most to Lose: Luke Rockhold (v Paulo Costa)

You could argue Costa here as well, but he is still relatively young in this sport with an exciting style and physique which helps that UFC push. Rockhold is 37, likely past his prime or at least close, and would be on a 3 fight losing and (likely) KO streak. While I don't see the promotion cutting Rockhold after that, retirement is not out of the question.

Most to Gain: Jose Aldo (v Merab Dvalishvili)

Already a legend, what else could he accomplish? Maybe another title in a new division and firmly inserting himself into GOAT talks. Being a big underdog and already having eternal respect from the promotion, a win here could have him squarely in title contention with Yan no longer reigning champion.

*All bets and lines via DraftKings.