UFC 276 Bets & Picks

I will be honest here, this may be the most loaded UFC card I have noticed, on paper, in the Fox/ESPN era that I can remember. The main card alone may not match up with some of those top tier lists, but the prelims and fight pass prelims will be loaded with proven talent. The fact that Jessica Rose Clark the first fight of the night and Dricus Du Plessis opening the prelims tells you everything. We will just be looking at the main card for fight picks, but there is room for prelims love! Check it out below:

Sean O'Malley (-305) vs Pedro Munhoz (+255)

Finally! We see Suga Sean face some top 10 caliber talent. While he has looked great in almost every fight we have seen him in, his opponents leave a lot to be desired and the injury concerns mid fight continue to build up. As anyone will say when looking at this fight on paper, the key will be leg kicks, or calf kicks by Munhoz more specifically. O'Malley catches a lot of criticism in the media for his "weakness" of attacking the legs but he has shown the ability to check leg kicks against Raulian Paiva and most recently Thomas Almeida. O'Malley doesn't have an "achilles" point in his legs but given he has a more "free movement" style, the leg kicks can help Munhoz curb the speed and movement advantage to O'Malley. Munhoz has never been knocked down in his UFC career, which is extremely impressive considering his resume has names like Cody Garbrandt, Rob Font, and Jose Aldo. He has a chin that will really test the metal of Suga Sean, and whether he is ready to win via a 3 round decision rather than heading for an impressive KO. It's really difficult to determine how this type of leap in competition will impact a prospect, but I see this being another big boost to the market of Suga Sean. I have no business making this prediction if we are going off history, however I see Sean O'Malley being the first to knock out Pedro Munhoz. Munhoz can be stagnant in movement at times and with an already massive advantage in the speed and reach department, I see a scenario where O'Malley can really put on a striking clinic here. With Munhoz having such a great chin, I expect we see him take a few shots that many others wouldn't.

BIYC Pick: Sean O'Malley by 3rd round TKO

Robbie Lawler (-110) vs Brian Barberena (-110)

A true fans fight! The odds make perfect sense here as both fighters bring a certain style that the fans will love and I don't expect this fight to disappoint even if there is no finish. I will pick Robbie Lawler as the better fighter every day of the week, but Lawler is now at a point in his career where his volume has decreased with age and he doesn't possess the same one KO power as we saw with prime Lawler. If we see an aggressive Lawler then I expect him to win this one rather easily, however we have only seen "aggressive" Robbie Lawler in nearly one round of his past 4 or 5 fights. Barberena will bring the pressure and won't be afraid of the legend challenge in front of him. He is an up and coming fighter, so a big performance on the biggest card of the year (so far) will have fans remembering the name (shoutout Belal). Most UFC fans understand what Barberena brings to the table, but I have a feeling the casual fans will get a taste of what Barberena brings Saturday. I expect a fun fight for the fans slammed right between Suga Sean and Alex Pereira as the UFC nails the card breakdown again.

BIYC Pick: Bryan Barberena by DEC

Sean Strickland (-125) vs Alex Pereira (+105)

Well, we know Israel Adesanya will be watching this one with us. If he showed anything during the leadup is he is not afraid of Alex Pereira, even with their history. Adesanya is on top of the world right now and you can see the confident ooze. The reality of this fight is it gets massive headlines, due to the whole community understanding this is likely a number 1 contender fight. The UFC is clearly trying to push Pereira, as they should, but the storylines for Pereira vs Adesanya are already being built. If there was one matchup in this division so early on, Strickland is the perfect matchup on paper for the Brazilian. Strickland is tough and has a sticky jab, but he does not possess the same type of power and he likes to talk shit mid fight to gain an edge. Considering the lack of English from Pereira I wonder how much that will impact him, if at all. We still have a lot to learn from Pereira but he appears to be sky rocketing to a title shot so early ala Jiri Prochazka. The UFC again blessed us with a fight that won't disappoint within 3 rounds. I am rather surprised by the odds above, and that will reflect in the prediction. Styles make fights and this style could be tough for Strickland.

BIYC Pick: Alex Pereira by 2nd round TKO

Alexander Volkanovski (-190) vs Max Holloway (+160)

I know Volk is 2-0 against Holloway officially, but I am very excited for this trilogy. My personal opinion; Volk won fight 1 and Holloway won the rematch. Of course that is not how the judges saw it so another loss here could have Holloway in purgatory between 145 and 155. Especially when you consider both Volk and Holloway have expressed interest in the Lightweight division as early as next fight. Fight 1 and 2 were so different in terms of what each fighter brought, and I expect the same for the trilogy bout. Many were concerned with the performance Max had against Yair Rodriguez in his last fight, and that was largely due to Yair following a similar gameplan of Volk. Heavy leg kicks as Holloway can be susceptible, and intercepting Max when closing the distance and starting combinations. Holloway also started to wrestle Yair throughout the last 2 or 3 rounds of the fight and found great success. While I don't see Holloway finishing this fight by submission or keeping Volk on the mat for 5 rounds, but mixing up his striking with the threat of takedown will lend great success. Volk looked truly leveled up against the Korean Zombie and I came away from that fight feeling like Volk was a tier or two above the rest of the division, similar to the communities thoughts after Holloway sent Katter to the woodshed. These two fighters are a few steps above the division and it shows in any fight they are in not against each other. I expect we see a lot more wrestling from both fighters and maybe even a finish! I will be honest here, I am rooting for Max Holloway. I have been a fan for a long time and to see him recapture the belt would be special. That being said, I believe Volk has a great game-plan and you could say he has Max's number. I believe he knows how to exploit certain weaknesses and as long as he is focused, he should be able to go 3-0 to solidify the trilogy in his favor.

BIYC Pick: Alexander Volkanovski by DEC

Israel Adesanya (-475) vs Jared Cannonier (+380)

I really don't like this matchup for Cannonier on paper. We all understand how good Adesanya is but his length and ability to add up "points" from a distance will make it tough for Cannonier to win the first two or three rounds. Not only does Izzy have reach but he truly understands how to use it for defense and offense. Jared Cannonier has knockouts in three different weight classes (Heavyweight, LHW, Middleweight) so the power is there to end the fight; the question is whether he can close the distance without being damaged too much. We saw Izzy's ability to counter strike with knockouts in similar fashion against Whittaker (1) and Paulo Costa. The odds are massive here and I actually agree. I don't see a lot of ways Cannonier can win this fight unless he knocks Izzy out which is certainly within reason. Cannonier is physical and aggressive when he needs to be, but is not aggressive in nature the same way Paulo Costa is. I see this resonating in the fight in a way where Adesanya is able to add up the leg kicks and body work as Whittaker had success with vs Cannonier. This really is the puzzle with Adesanya when you challenge him on the feet. You apply pressure and potentially get countered, but staying at distance will only get you fainted and leg kicked to death. I say that as a respect to the craft and Adesanya ability to confuse opponents on the feet. I expect Israel Adesanya to win by TKO late in the fight after largely winning a "points" fight up until then. Jared Cannonier might be the scariest man in the UFC, but the style matchup is a tough one.

BIYC Pick: Israel Adesanya by 3rd round TKO

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Early Prelim Fight to Watch: Uriah Hall v Andre Muniz

Uriah Hall is a frustrating yet loved UFC veteran for a reason. It nearly sums up his entire career with skills on paper to be a bonafide UFC champion, but his career did not work out that way. He is always a threat for a highlight knockout, but this is an incredibly bad matchup. Muniz has power, applies pressure, and is a legit submission threat. Uriah Hall and pressure do not go well together so I expect this to go Muniz way. However, we should see some fun action before it likely ends in a finish.

Prelim Fight to Watch: Brad Tavares v Dricus Du Plessis

Dricus Du Plessis is a rising star in the UFC and is a finish machine; which we all know the UFC is more than willing to push. Tavares isn't a ranked fighter but is someone you see fight top competition each time the contract is signed. This is similar to the path Vicente Luque followed prior to being a former top 5 contender. Du Plessis has a few submissions on his record - chokes specifically - and has legit one punch KO power. A finish machine will always bring questions of cardio for 3 or 5 rounds but its hard to complain about a finish streak. I expect another early knockout of a tough Brad Tavares to put Du Plessis on the map for everyone.

Banger of the Night: Sean O'Malley v Pedro Munhoz

There are no shortages of candidates here - damn near the entire main card - but Munhoz has elite durability and Suga Sean loves to tee off. O'Malley has been waiting so I don't expect him to be upset with a grappling match but there is no doubt he will be looking for the knockout. With Munhoz on a recent skid (1-4 in last 5) expect him to be looking for a splash as well.

Biggest Chance of Upset: Alex Pereira vs Sean Strickland

I am suprised Pereira is an underdog here, but I have never claimed to be Vegas either. I believe this is a bad matchup for Strickland and Pereira is looking to make a name himself off the current champ, someone he has already beaten twice in kickboxing. The UFC is behind this, Izzy is behind this, and the two fighters are behind this. I expect Pereira to be looking for a show for the fans.

Most to Lose: Max Holloway (v Alexander Volkanovski)

As we all know, Max is 0-2 vs Volk already and both fighters are looking to move up to the same weight class. Both fighters are tiers above the division and it makes sense for both to move. Holloway moving up 0-3 vs Volk is a tough vision with Volk moving us as FW champ. They are bound to cross paths again and Holloway has no reason to stick around FW. Holloway really needs to win this fight otherwise we could be seeing him chase money fights instead of gold. As a former champ Max has nothing to prove but it is a selfish wish.

Most to Gain: Jared Cannonier (v Israel Adesanya)

Cannonier has already participated in 3 different weight classes and with a loss to Whittaker already, he could be in a tough spot with a loss. However, with a win be immediately becomes an intimidating and marketable champion who just beat a top P4P champion who was unbeaten at this weight class. This would set up a fantastic rematch that would likely be lucrative for both parties. Its also hard not to choose the fighter who would win a title for the first time.

*All bets and lines via Draft Kings