UFC 274 Bets & Picks

Dana, you have done it again. It seems more often than not these days the UFC team puts together a stacked PPV card from top to bottom. Leading the main card with two title fights, but personally the best part of the card is the "Legends League" with Donald Cerrone and Joe Lauzon fighting to avoid a spot in the retirement pool, according to Dana White. I believe this is something the UFC should be doing moving forward with its aging veterans. Its still a relatively new sport so allowing these legends to go out the right way should be put on notice. Donald Cerrone may not have won a fight since 2019, but he is a fan favorite and we want to see him battle against an opponent at a similar point in their career. Lets hope this is a trial run for the company. In other words, lets jump right into the main card picks!

Donald Cerrone (-180) vs Joe Lauzon (+155)

Legends League is finally here! I absolutely love this matchup and putting it as the main card starter is perfect billing by the UFC. Both fighters haven't won a fight since 2019, however Lauzon is coming off a TKO victory whereas Cerrone is off a tough 5 fight losing streak. However, a few of those losses are to Conor McGregor, Tony Ferguson, and Justin Gaethje. After Dana stated in an interview he feels the loser should likely retire into the sunset, I expect both fighters to leave it all in the octagon that night. While I would love to see Cerrone win and actually retire after a win, I fully expect Joe Lauzon to prove Vegas wrong here. Its hard to know what either fighter can bring at this point in their career but Lauzon coming off a TKO finish has confidence. I see this ending the same way in a 2nd round TKO by Joe Lauzon

BIYC Pick: Joe Lauzon by 2nd round TKO

Ovince Saint Preux [OSP] (-240) vs Mauricio [Shogun] Rua (+195)

A bit of a lull in this fight if I am being honest, but the stylistic matchup has me intrigued to see who will come out on top. I was surprised to see Shogun continuing to fight in the UFC with top talent but here we are. Shogun hasn't fought since 2020 coming off a TKO loss to Paul Craig, whereas OSP is on a two fight losing streak and lost 3 of the last 4. Both fighters are out of title contention, but those are the fights that can give you an absolute war through 3 rounds. It feels like a toss up here for me, but I see OSP being too athletic and too quick for Shogun.

BIYC Pick: OSP by DEC

Michael Chandler (-310) vs Tony Ferguson (+280)

As a long time Tony Ferguson fan, this matchup really does not get me excited. As a general MMA fan this fight does have potential for fireworks. However, that is contingent on us getting one last night of vintage Tony Ferguson. I am talking about the D'Arce Knight, shades and blades all day, and true Champ Shit Only. While I don't expect that to happen, I will be holding out hope personally. At this point in his UFC career Michael Chandler has already captivated us with great performances he is now in desperate need of a win. This is a great stylistic matchup for Chandler as long as he sticks to his wrestling. I fully expect the gameplan to be win oriented rather than "putting on a show". This is bad news for Tony Ferguson who has shown to be susceptible to wrestle heavy approaches. While I will be rooting for a vintage Tony Ferguson performance, I see Chandler winning this by TKO.

BIYC Pick: Michael Chandler by 3rd round TKO

Rose Namajunas (-210) vs Carla Esparza (+175)

A rematch YEARS in the making, we are looking at a rematch of the current Strawweight champion and the first ever strawweight champion in the UFC. Esparza won the first fight - by submission - but Rose is a much different fighter than she was on the Ultimate Fighter. Being trained by Trevor Wittman, Rose is now one of the most efficient strikers in the UFC, men or women. This really boils down to me on whether Rose can stop those Cookie Monster takedowns. She doesn't need to defend every take down but allowing herself to be held to the mat off one takedown a round is a real concern. Esparza is dangerous as a submission threat and has brutal ground and pound. If Rose can defend the first few takedowns and force this into a kickboxing match it may be over in 2 rounds. I believe Rose has more ways to win and that will show multiple times in this fight. Namajunas is far from the same fighter than their first matchup, and Esparza can say the same, but the level of striking that Rose has gained is a big advantage in this fight. I expect Esparza to control the first round or two, but also see Rose turning it on in time for the championship rounds. Rose Namajunas by 4th round TKO, book it.

BIYC Pick: Rose Namajunas (AND STILL) by 4th round TKO

Charles Oliveira (-180) vs Justin Gaethje (+155)

Big drama show! With the "current" Lightweight UFC champion missing weight by .5 pounds, only Justin Gaethje will be available to win the title Saturday night. While I was leaning Gaethje already, the struggle in weight cut could cause some real concerns for the chin of Oliveira. Oliveira has been knocked down in the first round of his last two fights, however he was able to pull out the win in the end. That scares me as a bettor, as how many times can he pull that type of heart out and still survive? The idea that Oliveira is a quitter is not something I subscribe too, however the chin has been tested a few times. Justin Gaethje could also have a real claim as the hardest hitting 155er. He brings a pressure and intensity that was only matched by Khabib. Distance control for Gaethje is elite and his boxing is top notch in the company. His lack of ground game (it appears about zero, by choice) could be a real problem against arguably the best submission artist in the UFC. If this fight goes any longer than rounds 1 or 2, that is advantage Oliveira. All of this being said, I believe Justin Gaethje gets it done by first round TKO. He will capitalize on that weight cut and tested chin almost immediately. I am hoping for an action packed round 1! This could potentially lead to a Justin Gaethje vs Dustin Poirier rematch we have all been longing for. Since their first matchup, they have both fought for titles in the division and Gaethje is a much different fighter. Oh the possibilities! (just pls no Conor McGregor).

BIYC Pick: Justin Gaethje by 1st round TKO

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Banger of the Night: Rose Namajunas vs Carla Esparza

One of the few fights I expect to actually hit the 4th round, I think we see some big moments from both fighters, with an eventual ending in a TKO. You can't ask for much more than that!

Biggest Chance of Upset: Joe Lauzon vs Donald Cerrone

There are a few logical upsets here, but it only made sense to go with one of the two upsets I actually picked. This is a favorite matchup of mine as mentioned above, and I think we see Lauzon win and retire here. Joe Lauzon already had a position within the UFC front office so its interesting to see him return to the octagon after so much time off. Cerrone is a legend and has given us some truly timeless moments in the octagon, but the losing streak is for a reason. He has had some really stiff competition but the striking defense is very poor and he just doesn't possess the same power on his end to keep his opponents at bay.

Most to Lose: Michael Chandler (v Tony Ferguson)

I think most fans understand Michael Chandler is legit and has faced nobody but the best since he arrived. However, the wins have to come at some time and that "new fighter" shine will wear off eventually. Tony Ferguson is also an all time legend but he is on the down turn of his career. Tony Ferguson on the surface isn't a bad loss, but in a stacked division Chandler will get pushed pretty far down the rankings with a loss here. Chandler is far from someone to run from a challenge but im not sure he envisioned this being his record thus far into his UFC stint.

Most to Gain: Justin Gaethje (v Charles Oliveira)

What more could you gain than the UFC championship belt? With his second title shot in his career, its unlikely he gets another shot soon. Gaethje has also mentioned he only has a few wars left, so thinking he will be around for the next 5 years is far from a guarantee. With the weight miss, a win here could have Gaethje licking his chops at potential suitors. That Dustin Poirier rematch is always intriguing, but you can't rule out the McGregor fight. Its the money fight and based on interviews, its clear these two don't like each other.

*All bets and lines via FanDuel