UFC 273 Bets and Picks

The UFC has blessed us with another stacked event, so stacked that the two title fights are hardly the biggest talking points all week during media session. I believe most fans know what they will get out of the 4 fighting for titles tonight, however the uncertainty of Khamzat Chimaev has the place buzzing. Back in Jacksonville with another rowdy crowd, I expect some crowd pleasing moments and fights.

Vinc Pichel (-120) vs Mark Madsen (EVEN)

The UFC is always very smart and calculated with the way they stack main cards, and there is a reason this bout is the main card opener. Both fighters are coming off 3 fight win streaks and are relatively early in their UFC career. The Jacksonville crowd will be thirsty for violence and on paper, this matchup will deliver. Both fighters will be looking to keep the fight on the feet and I do see Pichel having the power advantage. Each fighter has an average fight time of over 10 minutes, so I fully expect this fight to go the distance. I believe we see some heavy blows traded and the shots from Vinc "From Hell" Pichel will make the most impact over the course of the fight for a three round decision. Given both fighters are relatively unknown and the money isn't attractive here, I likely stay away from the betting scene and enjoy the violence.

BIYC Pick: Vinc Pichel via DEC

Mackenzie Dern (-122) vs Tecia Torres (EVEN)

I won't lie, when I saw the betting line I was surprised Tecia Torres was not a favorite. Had you asked me when the fight was first booked, I would have thought Torres was near a -200 favorite. Torres is in near title contention and she is coming off a 3 fight win streak, most notably against an always tough out in Angela Hill. Dern is one of the best female prospects in in WMMA or UFC specifically so its interesting to see the UFC allow Dern to slow play her development. The history of these divisions generally lends to title challengers that aren't quite ready physically or mentally to challenge the current champion so that is interesting to see. Torres will bring a strong wrestle heavy approach with impressive top game if it reaches that point. This will be quite a clash of styles as Tecia Torres also has the clear edge on the feet, however everyone knows the Jiu Jitsu prowess of Mackenzie Dern so an offensive game-plan centered around wrestling could prove to be an issue for Tecia Torres. Torres brings a wealth of experience in this division and has proven to step up on the big stage. Given the betting line I will also stay away from this fight with money. Mackenzie Dern has a clear path to victory but it is much more narrow than her opponent. I believe Torres has too many ways to win and can truly dictate where the fight goes because of it. Mackenzie Dern may be a future champion in this division with her skillset, but Torres may be more championship ready as of this weekend.

BIYC Pick: Tecia Torres via DEC

Khamzat Chimaev (-550) vs Gilbert Burns (+370)

The peoples main event! It's hard to have real analysis for this fight considering the lack of real octagon time for Chimaev in the UFC. However, their styles point to some very interesting clashes that we can dive into. Many thought Chimaev was just a wrestler with suffocating grappling; until he sent Gerald Meerschaert to the shadow realm. GM3 happened to follow that performance up with his best win streak to date, but Chimaev proved himself a worth adversary that day regardless. He still lacks top end competition which makes this fight so hard to pick. If Chimaev is every bit of that hype, you would have him fight Usman now. If Chimaev is only hype, this fight could show how quickly the hype train can blind us all. The skills Khamzat has showed us puts him squarely in the top 10 in the division with a chance to skyrocket to top 5 quickly. One thing we have not seen is how the pressure effects Chimaev. Don't get it twisted, Gilbert Burns is not scared of Chimaev. He is not scared of the hype train and he has no reason to back down. I believe this will be a very important development of this fight. Often times Jiu Jitsu masters don't fear the takedown in MMA because that brings them to a familiar place, to a fault in some cases. As Chimaev said at the press conference, this is MMA and there is more to it than Jiu Jitsu. While I think that mentality will help Burns early on, it could also get him in trouble as the fight carries on. Burns won't bring in the most technical striking skills Khamzat has seen though he does have power to end the fight. Both fighters have proven they can finish a fight in any way and that lends a lot of excitement for the fans. This fight truly feels 50/50 given so much unknown from Chimaev, but I do feel the big step up in competition will matter here. Gilbert Burns has shown us a multitude of ways to win against elite level competition across multiple divisions. I wouldn't be surprised to see a Chimaev finish here to fuel the hype train but I believe the experience and well rounded game that Gilbert Burns presents will show us some holes that we have not seen from Khamzat before. This is a peoples main event for a reason and I am all on board. Gilbert Burns by 2nd round TKO.

BIYC Pick: Gilbert Burns via 2nd RD TKO (+370)

Aljamain Sterling [C] (+330) vs Petr Yan (-500)

I won't beat around the bush here, I am not as excited for this rematch as I was for the original. Although I felt Sterling had some success early on Petr Yan never felt in trouble in that fight and continued to take control as it went on. Yan has a history of breaking his opponents down over the time and that appears to have happened in this first fight. Sterling claimed there were some issues regarding his neck, which were later confirmed by a subsequent neck surgery after the fight. Sterling brings immense pressure with both hands and kicks with cardio to do it for 5 straight rounds if things are going his way. There is a clear edge on the mat for Sterling and this can end very similarly to Sterling vs Sandhagen. Past that the only other real chance I see Sterling having is wearing on Yan so much in rounds 1-3, that he simply cannot ramp up pressure himself in championship rounds. This is achievable, but the takedown execution from Sterling has to improve from the first fight. Sterling seemed to really be rushing and telegraphing his takedown attempts in the first fight. The blueprint is there for Sterling, I just question if the execution will be there. Sterling found some success in rounds 2 and 3 with the Petr Yan high guard, but he also leaves himself open to big shots too often due to his style. I see Sterling getting caught one too many times in his aggressive approach. I see Yan getting this done somewhat early with a 3rd round TKO.

BIYC Pick: Petr Yan via Rd 3 TKO

Alexander Volkanovski (-800) vs Chan Sung Jung *Korean Zombie* (+500)

Whoa, Volkanovski at a -800 favorite? You could argue Korean Zombie didn't deserve this title fight but its rare when we see a betting line that large for any men's divisions in the UFC. This just shows the status Volk has brought himself to while quietly building on of the best resumes on the P4P list. With only one loss and loads of experience, its time I started giving my respect to Volk. His performances against Holloway, whether you believe he won or not, were extremely impressive. For him to also be put in a tight Ortega choke and have the resilience to fight out of it, shows the heart and determination Volk has for this sport. We heard a lot regarding his former Rugby career, but Volk has done nothing but proven he not only puts in the work but that he belongs here with the best of the best. Volk has an incredible ability to impede the game-plan of the opponent. As Korean Zombie mentioned in the press conference, Volkanovski doesn't have one style because it adapts based on the opponent. Volk may not be able to boast a Jiu Jitsu black belt or years of kickboxing experience, but he puts it together like not many fighters can. Korean Zombie has a rep has taking a shot to give one and coming forward like a zombie, hence the nickname, however he has been a lot more calculated the last few years. He boasts incredible Jiu Jitsu prowess so he can be dangerous on the mat as well. Let us be realistic here, Korean Zombie is at an extreme disadvantage right now. He isn't as active as Volk and the competition level hasn't been the same. Zombie fights about once a year and that has made it tough to create momentum or a win streak. Volkanovski is at the top of the P4P list for a reason. Korean Zombie is a legend and will be in featherweight books forever, however this is Volk's fight to lose. I see this ending in a 4th round TKO for Alexander Volkanovski. I imagine we see the Holloway matchup rebooked immediately following a Volk win.

BIYC Pick: Alexander Volkanovski via 4th Rd TKO

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Banger of the Night: Vinc Pachel vs Mark Madsen

This is great card development by the UFC and they wanted this card to open with some violence. I expect this fight to go the distance and there to be some swangin' and bangin' (thank you Derrick Lewis) every step of the way.

Biggest Chance of an Upset: Gilbert Burns v Khamzat Chimaev

A massive underdog that I chose to win, there was no other choice here. Chimaev is a massive betting favorite and Vegas really isn't respecting Burns or his resume to this point. I think we see Burns take the hype right from under Khamzat Chimaev

Most to Lose: Korean Zombie vs Volkanovski

Unfortunately, Zombie is getting up there in age and this appears to be his final title shot. His last title shot was back when Aldo was still champion but its a credit to his dedication and work ethic that he is back here again at the end of his career. At this point as a Zombie fan, I am just hoping for a better performance than Yoel Romero gave his last title bout in the UFC.

Most to Gain: Aljamain Sterling vs Petr Yan

This seems crazy to say about someone who is currently champion, but the betting line says it all. Vegas and seemingly the entire community, views Yan as the real Bantamweight champion. As stated above, Yan really started to take control in that first fight and many felt Sterling "milked" the illegal knee. Either way he is champion but a legitimate win against Petr Yan could have fans finally giving Sterling respect like a champion.

*All bets and lines via Bovada.com