UFC 272 Bets and Picks

Former friends turned enemies. Are you tired of hearing that yet? I think I can speak for most fans when I say I am ready for the trash talk to end and the fight to get here. Even though we have a main event with no title on the line and a -300 favorite, the card overall is really well rounded and there are to be a few contenders for banger of the night. I should also point out my frustration with another Greg Hardy fight on the main card. The prelims are decent and the early prelims are deep. There are plenty of other options available and I don’t believe fans would complain if we even saw Brian Kelleher vs Umar Nurmagomedov in that opening main event slot. Definitely a massive step up that wasn’t earned in resume, but the fight on paper appears to be a good one.

Serghei Spivac (-190) vs Greg Hardy (+160)*

Both fighters are coming off TKO losses, although to good competition in Tom Aspinall and Tai Tuivasa, respectively. Greg Hardy has shown an ability to translate his athleticism to the cage but also proves inexperienced when facing stiff competition. I don’t see Hardy as a legitimate heavyweight title contender at this time but he does have abilities to surprise a few in the top 15 if they aren’t careful. Spivac has his own version of power although I don’t see him going toe to toe with Hardy. I expect Spivac to use his advantage on the ground to make this a boring, although effective win. If you’re feeling lucky, Hardy by TKO and Spivac by decision are both equal odds of +275. Take your pick!

BIYC Pick: Spivac by DEC

Kevin Holland (-380) vs Alex Oliveira (+290)

Welcome to the Kevin Holland show! The early hype train on Holland was chugging along until the tops of the middleweight division came along. His wrestling became a clear weakness to the division and Holland has spent time to improve those skills. While he is far from there yet, we haven’t seen someone willing to stand with Holland for a few fights. I expect Cowboy to do just that. He has the clear advantage in wrestling and possibly BJJ, but he loves to brawl and that can get him into trouble. I expect to see an exhilarating fight and will have people remembering why Holland was on such a big hype train. I see Holland winning by 2nd round TKO. Holland by TKO is +120, which I prefer taking a chance on over the -380 ML.

BIYC Pick: Holland by 2nd round TKO

Bryce Mitchell (-165) vs Edson Barboza (+145)

Styles make fights right? That’s exactly what this is as Bryce Mitchell brings what many consider an elite ground and jiu jitsu game while Barboza already has a legacy set in stone as one of the best leg kickers and strikers in history. The multiple finishes by leg kick and spinning wheel kick knockouts that you will see on UFC highlights until the company's demise. Barboza has looked great since the division change and I don’t feel its a hot take to say he is even better than he was at Lightweight. Barboza is coming off a TKO loss to Giga Chikadze so you question how he will return from that result. This is certainly a step up in competition for Mitchell, coming off his best win against Andre Fili. If this fight gets to the mat I do expect Mitchell to take over but he has wanted to show off his improvements in striking in the past. I am going with Edson Barboza by decision and I believe he will have Bryce Mitchell in trouble a time or two across three rounds. Barboza ML is +145.

BIYC Pick: Barboza by DEC

Rafael Dos Anjos[RDA] (-170) vs Renato Moicano (+150)

What was supposed to be RDA vs Rafael Fiziev, then RDA vs Islam Makhachev, is now RDA vs Renato Moicano. It’s been a whirlwind of a week for this particular bout and you have to feel for RDA. He signed up for two of the toughest guys in the division and one of them turned him down, per Dana White. This is still not a great matchup for Moicano but he has been red hot after his recent division change. Moicano has 3 submissions in his last 4 fights and all are by rear naked choke. While RDA also boasts a black belt in BJJ, not all black belts are created equal so it will be interesting to see the exchanges if this hits the mat. RDA has the clear advantage on the feet although Moicano has shown the ability to drop an opponent with one punch. I am not expecting this to be the most exciting fight but RDA would’ve signed up for anybody. I see RDA winning a clear decision. I stay away from this from a betting perspective unless you think Moicano can secure the choke, in which case, Moicano by submission is +400.

BIYC Pick: RDA by DEC

Colby Covington (-320) vs Jorge Masvidal (+250)

As I said in the beginning, I am tired of the trash talk and the press conference I believe shut a lot of fans off. They sounded like two teenagers trying to argue the loudest over each other, often repeating the same things. The trash talk wasn’t clever either, it was simply personal. The narrative of “friends to enemies” is really overblown here to the point where some fans speculate on how real the beef really is. Regardless, the fight in the cage is still largely exciting even with the betting lines the way they are. If this fight goes the distance, Covington has the edge. Masvidal has the ability to end the fight early but Covington has proven to be tough and ability to take a good shot. The one big question mark I have is the emotion of the fight and if Covington will stand and swing for 5 rounds like he did in the first Usman fight. Colby mentioned in the ugly press conference he has learned in his career not to fight emotionally so it appears that is an area that has been addressed in his camp. There isn’t much to this fight other than potentially a post fight scuffle. I like Colby Covington by a 5 round decision so I will stay away from this for betting purposes. Masvidal by TKO is +400 for those feeling lucky.

BIYC Pick: Covington by DEC

Banger of the Night: Kevin Holland vs Alex Oliveira

Do I really need to have any explanation? Both fighters love to stand on their feet and want to look for that flashy KO. Not to mention, both are credentialed jiu jitsu artists so a battle on the mat will be just as exciting. This fight is certainly going to end in a KO.

Biggest Chance of an Upset: Edson Barboza vs Bryce Mitchell

I picked Barboza to win here so it makes all the sense in the world, but the style differences lend some advantages for Barboza that we like in a 3 round fight. Bryce Mitchell will willingly try to wrestle but Barboza has historically great defense. If Mitchell can’t get the takedown this could be a 3 round decision.

Most to Lose: Jorge Masvidal

This is a big fight for Masvidal and his disinterest in the press conference has me a bit worried about his interest in this fight. The style matchup is not on his side and he certainly doesn’t have the cardio to match Covington. A loss could have him at the back end of the rankings with not many big name fights available.

Most to Gain: Renato Moicano

Easily his biggest test in the new division this fight could have him on a 3 fight win streak and in favor of the promotion for stepping in on short notice. This is a massive opportunity and another finish could have him in the next main event. Moicano seems to either choke his opponent out or dominate them in a decision so there are multiple ways for this to end.

Prelims Must Watch: Marina Rodriguez vs Yan Xiaonan

The early prelims are very deep as well but this fight could really be giving us the next serious Strawweight contender. Rodriguez is currently on a 3 fight win streak with a recent win against Mackenzie Dern. Yan lost to Carla Esparza by TKO last year in their last fight but that was the likely number 1 contender fight at the time. This could be another fight with similar stakes.

*Bets and lines via Draft Kings