2021 NCAA March Madness Elite Eight Monday Preview

The 2021 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen had the highest seed total of all time, but we saw the Cinderella give it everything they had. From OT games to game winners the Sweet Sixteen gave us everything we could ask for. Saturday’s games gave us nothing exciting except Arkansas and Oral Roberts. However, this leaves us with some great matchups in the Elite Eight which I have covered for you in Monday’s games.

(12) Oregon State vs (2) Houston

Game Lines: Houston -7.5 O/U 129.5

Houston is trying to reach the Final Four for the first time since 1984 and looks ready to do so after an impressive win against Syracuse. I thought Houston would win the game, but I thought it would be a lot closer than it was. Houston did exactly as the statistics showed they would. Houston only allows teams to shoot 28% from three this year and averaged 14 offensive rebounds a game. Allowing 21% from three and grabbing 11 offensive rebounds the Cougars should be looking to do the same against Oregon State. Quentin Grimes is the player to watch in this one, averaging 18 PPG and 6 RPG, and has a great opportunity to lead Houston to the Final Four as well as the Cougars defense.

Oregon State continued their improbable run with a dominant win over Loyola where they looked in control for the most of that game. Oregon State has hit shots when they matter and has played great defense. Ethan Thompson averages 15.6 PPG and 3.8 APG but he has averaged 20.3 PPG so far in this tournament. Jarod Lucas and Warith Alatishe have stepped up alongside Thompson averaging 13 PPG and 9.5 PPG respectively. Oregon State is looking to be the first team to reach the Final Four as a 12 seed and they are looking to do so as a non-tournament team winning a major conference tournament and sweep through their region.

The pace of this game will determine the winner of this I believe, both teams play great defensively but if this game has a slow tempo, it favors Houston more than it favors Oregon State. Oregon State has been shooting 38.7% from three and their opponents have shot 22.8% from three. The Beavers have had a lot of luck from three so far in the tournament, but I don’t believe the same will happen in this game. Houston will close out the three-point line better than Oregon State’s previous opponents.

Prediction: The issue with a 12 seed making it this far that wasn’t always the greatest team in the regular season means we could be in for a blowout win. Houston does this better than anyone else. I’m expecting a close game where Houston pulls one out late, but I am fearful of Houston winning this game by 15+. Pick: Houston -7.5 Over 129.5

(3) Arkansas vs (1) Baylor

Game Lines: Baylor -8 O/U 148.5

In the NCAA tournament coaches say all the time you have to find a way to win a one-possession game, Arkansas has done this twice this tournament and has come back from double digits in all three of their games. Arkansas pulled one out with a game-winner and a missed shot at the buzzer to beat Oral Roberts by 2. Moses Moody averages 17 PPG and leads a balanced attack. However, Arkansas has been able to go on runs in this tournament with their top 10 rated defense. When the Razorbacks can lock in and have their defense lead to their offense, they are a dangerous group. Arkansas also only averages a turnover on 17% of their percentages and shoots 51% from the two-point range.

Baylor was impressive on the defensive end of the floor against Villanova in a hard-fought victory on Saturday. Baylor has the three-headed attack of Jared Butler, Davion Mitchell, and MaCio Teague. Baylor has also been able to go on runs in this tournament when their defense is pressuring the ball and forcing turnovers. However, Arkansas has more experienced guards to make this more difficult. Baylor is going to have to shoot better from three than they did against Villanova. Against Villanova, Baylor shot 3/19 from three although they average 40.8% from beyond the arc this season.

This game will come down to how well Arkansas’s top 10 rated defense can compete against Baylor’s number 3 ranked offensive efficiency rating. As stated before, the Bears shoot above 40% from the three-point line and that will be where Baylor can win this game. At times Baylor can struggle to score the ball when they desperately need a bucket and neither team plays with a ton of depth. We can see this game get up and down, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the game was lower scoring.

Prediction: I don’t believe that the game line is giving enough respect to Arkansas as an 8-point underdog. Arkansas plays good enough defense and Baylor hasn’t overwhelmed teams enough for me to not think that this one is close enough for that number. Pick: Arkansas +8 under 148.5