2021 NCAA Tournament Saturday Sweet 16 Preview

The Sweet 16 continues in Indianapolis on Saturday and this is your guide to everything matchup-wise, betting, and overall summary of the games to come on Saturday. With not as many huge matchups on Saturday, this is the day of the first-round underdogs. This is March.

(8) Loyola Chicago vs (12) Oregon State

Betting Lines: Loyola Chicago -6.5, O/U 125.5

Both teams are coming off a huge round of 32 upsets. Loyola Chicago knocked off one of the hottest teams coming into the tournament in Illinois. However, those that have paid attention to college basketball this year know that Loyola Chicago is a top 10 ranked Kenpom team. The metrics love the Ramblers but not having any significant wins or many quadrant 1 opportunities led them to be heavily under seeded. So, this comes as no surprise to see Porter Moser and the Ramblers in the sweet 16 after the magical run in 2018. On the flip side, the Oregon State Beavers are on a run that no one could have seen coming. Oregon State entered the Pac-12 conference tournament at 14-12 and not even on the bubble of the NCAA tournament. Now winners of 5 straight and taking down Cade Cunningham and Oklahoma State, the Beavers find themselves with a possible path to a potential final four.

I would expect Loyola Chicago to come into this one with a great game plan that keeps the Oregon State scorers of Ethan Thompson and Jarod Lucas in check. Loyola Chicago does a good job of playing at their pace and I see more of the same happening on Saturday. Look for a big game out of Cameron Krutwig as the Ramblers roll.

Prediction: Loyola will be too much with their NCAA tournament experience. Loyola wins by double digits covering the -6.5 and the 125.5 over hitting.

(1) Baylor vs (5) Villanova

Game Lines: Baylor -7.5, O/U 141.5

Baylor has overcome their post-Covid-19 pause woes and has started to play like the Baylor we saw for most of the season. The Baylor Bears are coming off a 76-63 win over Wisconsin where they looked well balanced and like the better team. Baylor is led by Jared Butler, Davion Mitchell, and MaCio Teague. As the saying goes, “guards win games in March” and Baylor has three of them that are more than capable of winning games. We expected Baylor to be in this sweet 16 matchups but not many expected the Villanova wildcats to be in this game. Many thought they would lose to a one-loss Winthrop team and no one thought they would get past the potential matchup of Purdue. Many believed this because Colin Gillespie, Villanova’s All-American point guard, tore his MCL and is out the rest of the season. The Wildcats came off the injury losing back-to-back games to Providence and Georgetown. Villanova has responded by producing double-digit victories of Winthrop and North Texas in the NCAA Tournament.

A lot of this game will come down to Villanova guards keeping up with the Baylor guards. Jeremiah Robinson Earl will need to control the paint for Villanova and the likes of Chris Arcidiacono and Justin Moore will need to keep up with the three guards of Baylor. Baylor can pressure and turn it up defensively when given the opportunity and I expect their guards to flash the experience and quality they have in a victory over the Villanova Wildcats.

Prediction: Villanova hangs tough for a large part of the game, but Baylor has enough late to win the game as well as cover the -7.5. The point total goes over 141.5 in a higher-scoring game.

(3) Arkansas vs (15) Oral Roberts

Game Lines: Arkansas -11, O/U 159

Oral Roberts is this year’s Cinderella team, beating the 2 seeded Ohio State Buckeyes and the 7 seed Florida Gators. Oral Roberts is led by NCAA D1 leading scorer Max Abmas (24.5 PPG) and also Kevin Obanor. Oral Roberts has won both games in this tournament by 3 points in which the opposing team had a chance to tie at the end. The Summit League tournament champions have made the most of this opportunity and found themselves in the sweet 16 versus another SEC opponent. The Arkansas Razorbacks are in the sweet 16 for the first time since 1996. Eric Musselman has led this team to a 24-6 record and has a favorable matchup against a 15 seed after escaping a close one against Texas Tech. Arkansas is led by NBA talent Moses Moody and plays an up-tempo game while having a top 10 defensive efficiency rating. The Razorbacks are good and are looking at an opportunity for a final four run.

Oral Roberts puts up a lot of threes going 21 of 65 in the first two tournament games. The Razorbacks do have a great defense but surprisingly allow opponents to shoot 35.1% from the three-point line. We saw Colgate shock Arkansas for the majority of the first half in round one before Arkansas ran away. This game will be won on how well Arkansas can defend the three and how effective Oral Roberts can make the three.

Prediction: I think Arkansas comes away with the win and advances to the Elite Eight but not without a great fight from Oral Roberts. The three-point defense from Arkansas scares me but I think they have enough firepower to win the games. Oral Roberts will cover the spread at +11 and the total will go over 159.

(2) Houston vs (11) Syracuse

Game Lines: Houston -6.5, O/U 140

The hottest player in the Indianapolis bubble is Buddy Boeheim and he has taken Syracuse to another double-digit seed run into the sweet 16. Jim Boeheim and that 2-3 zone are a different animal in March, and they are showcasing that again upsetting 6 seeded SDSU and 3 seeded West Virginia. Over the last 6 games, Buddy Boeheim is shooting an outstanding 48.5% from three. Things will get more difficult however when the 2 seeded Houston Cougars bring their 11 ranked Kenpom defense to the court. Houston is led by Kansas transfer Quentin Grimes and Marcus Sasser. A big story will be the health of DeJon Jarreau who played through a hip injury in the come from behind win against Rutgers.

Houston shoots 35.8% from three as a team but the big storyline in this one is the relentless offensive rebounding of the Cougars against the Syracuse zone. Houston averages 14.1 offensive rebounds a game and has allowed teams to just shoot 28.3% from deep this season. Those two stats will determine the outcome of this game.

Prediction: This will be a back-and-forth game and it is always difficult for a team that doesn’t regularly see the 2-3 zone to comfortably beat it. However, I think Houston wins this game on the defensive end of the floor and comes up with enough extra possessions offensively to narrowly win this one. Houston wins but Syracuse covers +6 and the game goes under 140.