Darius Garland: Most Improved Player in 2022?

With all the off-season discourse surrounding Collin Sexton and the new pending deal with the Cavaliers, I believe its Darius Garland who is the guard Cleveland should be building around. That may end up being the case with Sexton and the Cavs not coming to terms on a new rookie extension before the start of the year. While they were only rumors, there were some talks that other members of the team didn’t enjoy playing with Sexton. Even though it’s only been two years, it is already time to question whether the “dual point guard” experiment with Sexton and Garland should continue. Garland has shown to be the “pure” point guard of the two and seems to run the offense more efficiently. Collin Sexton has his own strengths, but it doesn’t appear they are amplified when playing alongside Garland. Below we outline why Darius Garland is the guard to watch in Cleveland and can be built around with that young core in Cleveland.

What do the stats say?

After an underwhelming rookie year in 2019-2020, Darius Garland improved in nearly every statistical category, most notably by improving his points per game from 12PPG to 17PPG and his assists per game from 3.9 APG to 6.1 APG. Not only did the scoring and playmaking stats increase, but so did the efficiency. Garland managed to raise his minutes per game, but also increased his efficiency by increasing both overall FG% and 3PT% on more than 3 more attempts per game. In his second season in 2020-2021, his shooting splits to end the year were .451/.395/.848. The usage rate from year 1 to year 2 increased from 20% to 24%. Even with the improvement in the assists category, the most impressive part of this is the lack of turnovers. With the usage increase in the second year as stated above, Garland still increased his Assist to turnover ratio (AST/TO) to 2:01 with just over 3 turnovers a game. One of the biggest complaints about Garland through two seasons is his size for defensive purposes and when it comes to getting to the free throw line. DG may never have the defensive upside of a guard like Lonzo Ball, but he is athletic enough to rely on help defense and can stay in front of most guards on the perimeter with the “want to”. The Cavs organization had an expectation leading into this season (2021-2022) that both Sexton and Garland should shoot more 3 pointers and overall, just be more aggressive on the offensive end. The organization has even thrown out the number of 8 three pointers they want Garland shooting per game. For reference, only 4 players averaged more than eight 3-pointers attempted last season in Steph Curry, Damian Lillard, Buddy Hield, and Fred VanVleet. As per NBA.com stats, nearly 60% of Garland’s made field goals were unassisted in 2020-2021. The league leader (with starter minutes) was Shai Gilgeous Alexander with 87%. As shown below, Darius Garland has the ball handling skills to create his own shot and get the open looks needed from three or on a drive.

What does the eye test say?

The eye test for Darius Garland says that he is an ever-improving guard that is still figuring out his best self in the scope of the NBA. The skills are evident, as they were out of Vanderbilt, but its how he uses them, when, and how often they come to the surface. His shooting ability is one that could develop similarly to that of Damian Lillard in terms of range of proficiency, and the playmaking can be on par with that of DeAaron Fox. While its unfair to create Garland in this “NBA Frankenstein” (as are most Frankenstein comparisons), he was drafted with that lofty ceiling in mind. The passing ability is already one of the best in the league among young guards. As below (clip 2), Garland not only shows off his passing ability with a no look pass, but the most impressive part of this clip to me is the court vision displayed to create an open look for his teammate. Side note: Man, it’s difficult to watch Darius Garland and not continue to notice Evan Mobley. An absolute star in the making. As I was saying below:

With another similar outlook below, we can see how Garland can create just enough space with a little hesitation move to slot a perfect pass for an easy bucket for Jarret Allen:

Future outlook:

Darius Garland is moving himself into being one of the best young guards in the game at age 21 and already averaging 17 points and 6 assists. While he isn’t quite at the level of young guards like Doncic, Trae Young, or Ja Morant under age 24, he still has a few years to continue to improve. While improvement is hardly linear in the NBA – unless you’re Kawhi Leonard – it appears, the game is only slowing down more and more for Garland. The next step in his evolution lies right with his aggressiveness. He has the skills to get the ball to the hoop and pass out on a drive if necessary, but he still struggles in contact and creating fouls with only 11% of his points coming from the free throw line. He also has the range to force most teams to guard him shortly after he crosses the half court line. Garland shows flashes of splash plays every now and then, it’s just not harnessed to consistent play at this time.

We continue to hear trade rumors for Collin Sexton and given the news out of the offseason that Sexton and the Cavs couldn’t come to a deal on a rookie contract extension, I wonder how much longer Sexton and Garland will be playing together. Even with limited action without Sexton on the court, Garland improved his net rating, assist percentage, and his AST/TO when on the court and Sexton is not. In the 2020-2021 season, Garland increased his net rating by 3 points without Sexton on the court and nearly 5 points so far into the 2021-2022 season. It seems Darius Garland has only scratched the surface of his potential at age 21 and seems primed for a Most Improved Player award in 2022, especially if we see the Cavs trade away Collin Sexton. With a much better roster this year, I see the Cavs being able to better utilize Garland and his skills as a playmaker and passer. I fully expect Garland to be a future all star and even an All-NBA caliber player when the wins start to follow.