CFB Playoff Week 7 Temp Check

In this new weekly series, we will be diving into which teams we believe are legit or not. In other words, sorting the contenders from the pretenders. This is an attempt to sort through all the context rankings doesn't provide. As fans we tend to write certain teams or coaches off after week 1 or 2, then we miss the week to week improvement that leads to a different team come November. We are all aware of the "SEC Boost" that middling teams in that conference get, but the SEC isn't alone. An early 5-0 or 6-0 record in the Big Ten or ACC can lead to teams being ranked that don't necessarily deserve it due to their resume. While we want to mainly focus on teams with a chance at the CFP, we also want to point out teams that are improving but likely won't make the CFP. Let's get right into it!

Contenders:

Caitie McMekin/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK

Tennessee

This team passes the eye test with ease and while early wins against Pitt, Florida, and LSU were a bit overrated, they look the part on both sides of the ball. Hendon Hooker sports a 10:0 TD/INT ratio and with the top wideout Cedric Tillman out since Akron, this team continues to find points from all angles. The rush defense has been above average to this point and the offense - when in rhythm - looks to be on par with the elites in 2022. The rushing attack isn't elite, but its solid with both Jabari Small and Jaylen Wright having nearly identical success. I don't expect them to beat Alabama in week 7 but that hardly ends their CFP hopes. A future date @ Georgia will show us everything we need to know.

UCLA

Led by Dorien Thompson-Robinson (DTR) and Zach Charbonnet, this offense knows how to put up points and a big win against conference foe in Utah had some fans believing again. The close win against South Alabama earlier in the year had pundits confused on this UCLA team for good reason. DTR appears to have taken the next step in his development and Charbonnet will forever be a productive back in CFB. If Jake Bobo can continue to be explosive that keeps this offense in a different gear. The defense has some work to do but to this point the offense has proven good enough to overcome those deficiencies. A test @ Oregon after the Week 7 bye will let us know how real this team is.

Texas

Is Texas officially back? While I hate to take that stance (officially) it appears to be true with Ewers at the helm. This Texas team has always had talent and I have been a believer in Sark in Austin since it was announced. A #1 overall QB recruit changes things of course but the defense stepped up in a loss to Alabama and since. This team has shown flashes and this is the year to put it all together in the Big 12. Its hard to hold defense against anyone in the Big 12 not named Oklahoma State or Baylor but it will be a topic of discussion come CFP time. Its impossible to omit Bijan Robinson from any Texas post but Roschon Johnson is legit and Xavier Worthy is as dangerous as we thought coming into the year. The schedule sets up for plenty of opportunities to beef up the resume with road matchups against Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and Kansas remaining.

Ole Miss

This is a very conflicting case, as I largely do not believe in Jaxson Dart in 2022 but I believe in this rushing attack and Lane Kiffin (plus the schedule). The SEC Boost was in play x2 when Ole Miss played Kentucky week 5. While they likely should have lost that game, they didn't. Judkins is a special freshman talent and Zach Evans will play on Sundays along with Jonathan Mingo. While Kentucky was ranked 7th when they beat the Wildcats, its largely an overrated win. With not many opportunities left to truly be tested, the trio of matchups to end the year vis Alabama, @ Arkansas, and vs Mississippi State will prove to us whether this team is CFP ready or not.

Illinois

This is one of those picks where we could possibly look back and flinch after a few weeks, but this team has the coaching and talent to make a serious run at the Big Ten West. While that alone isn't enough to reach the CFP, this team is improving and is not the same Illinois team we have come to get used to. Brett Bielema knows how to coach in the Big Ten and Tommy DeVito is a difference maker when healthy. A matchup with Minnesota in Week 7 is a big one, but they could be outgunned without DeVito if he doesn't play. With Chase Brown and statistically a top 10 defense in the country to this point, this team has the tools and controls their own destiny. A late matchup at the Big House vs Michigan will be a clear indicator of where this team is at.

Not CFP, but improving:

Notre Dame

Me, like most people, wrote this team off after the Marshall loss. They didn't play well against Ohio State but with a new coach there should be given time to get acclimated. That is a hell of a debut for Marcus Freeman. However; the Marshall loss was concerning on a few levels. Just a few short weeks since this team looks much improved on offense with Drew Pyne leading the charge. While there aren't any particularly great wins on the resume yet, this team deserves credit for improving and bouncing back under a 1st year coach the way they have. With future matchups @ Syracuse, vs Clemson, and @ USC there are opportunities to earn that national respect back.

Kansas

Okay relax, don't bully me yet. I am all in on this great story, I love Lance Leipold, and love seeing teams or programs rise from the dead. Les Miles was an ugly situation there and they are truly a feel good story. This team plays zero defense to this point in the year. I hope this team stays healthy all year and stays ranked, but I do not consider this squad a legit contender. You hope Jalon Daniels returns this year but Jason Bean looked fantastic in limited action vs TCU and appears to be ready to lead them in the short term until we hear a timetable for return of Daniels. Devin Neal and Hishaw Jr are explosive and FUN.

Pretenders:

Penn State

We will truly find out this weekend with a massive road matchup @ Michigan, but this squad is 5-0 in a P5 conference and the poll voters have rewarded them for it. Nick Singleton is truly a freshman phenom and Manny Diaz has the defense looking aggressive but Sean Clifford has been a problem again. He is not throwing the ball deep often or accurately and his decision making has been shaky. The best win so far is easily @ Purdue and this team struggled mightily against currently the worst Big Ten team in Northwestern, just over a week ago. The lack of pass protection and pass game is going to hurt this team down the stretch which is what makes it tough for me to believe in them. They still have matchups @ Michigan, Minnesota, and Ohio State. To make things worse, they are all back to back. This team will show us who they are before we reach November.

Syracuse

Can we just get it out of the way that I am a big Sean Tucker fan? From his play on the field to his post game recap tweets, I can't get enough. However, this Syracuse team has struggled against inferior competition and I worry that this is again a case of being ranked according to record and not resume. They are 5-0 so I am fine seeing them in the Top 25 but I don't necessarily believe that they are one of the best 25 teams in the country at the same time. Garrett Shrader has been phenomenal to start the year but he struggled most against the best opponents so far - Purdue, Virginia and Louisville. With matchups remaining against NC State (week 7), Clemson (week 8), and Wake (Week 12), the competition greatly improves.

Kansas State

This is a tough one because its hard not to root for Adrian Martinez given his road here, but his play at times can be frustrating. His mistakes often times hidden by his rushing ability, runs like this worry me for Kansas State. Adrian Martinez has only thrown for 175+ yards in 2 of 6 games with Kansas State so far. Some of that is due to Deuce Vaughn, but the other part is Martinez indecisiveness in the pocket. His running ability to this point is a big advantage for this offense but what happens if a team can slow that down or Adrian gets nicked up as he has in the past? In the last three games, Adrian has had equal or more rushing attempts than passing completions. To a way less degree, this feels like watching the Chicago Bears in CFB form. The team has a clear strength at running the ball but must scale back the offense quite a bit to accommodate the QB or Oline deficiencies. Kansas State is largely ranked off the back of the OU win, but they have @ TCU, Texas, Oklahoma State, and Kansas as 4 of their last 6 games.

Oregon

I will admit, this is a really tough team to gauge right now. Its hard to hold the Georgia loss against them, but they have played incredibly worse competition since and have looked great. I am far from a Bo Nix believer but it appears he found a system that works for him. Bucky Irving is a stud but this team has feasted on defensive breakdowns by opponents since week 1. BYU isn't the team we thought entering the year, although still a decent win. A big test @ UCLA after the Week 7 bye should give us more clarity on how real this team is.

Kentucky

This could possibly be the biggest example of "SEC Boost" we have gotten in 2022 so far. The draft hype around Will Levis has largely been overhyped (in my humble opinion) and the loss of Chris Rodriguez to start the year was a big one, so while they deserve credit for the Florida win it shouldn't be considered a top 25 win. Chris Rodriguez being back will help this team level up a bit but with two losses already and Levis being incredibly iffy, I don't see the upside with this team. They are missing that go to receiver that was WanDale Robinson last year, but there is young talent at that position with Dane Key. The competition has been subpar and Kentucky hasn't performed like a top 15 team would. Upcoming matchups @ Tennessee and Georgia will prove to be tough.