5 Keys to Nebraska Football reaching a Bowl Game in 2022

With this seemingly being Scott Frost’s final shot at making this ship right at Nebraska, going above .500 and reaching a bowl game is not only pivotal but necessary. We could go on for days on the issues that could be corrected to get Nebraska back to the promised land but we narrowed it down to five that we truly feel would propel Nebraska back to a bowl game for the first time since 2015. These are hardly in order and more realistically work in unison rather than work in order of importance.

Turnover Margin

Every viewer of Nebraska football - fan or not - will nearly pull their hair out watching this team since 2018 (and longer if we are being honest) and a large reason for that is the turnovers on both sides. Since 2018, the best turnover margin Nebraska has had at the end of the year was a neutral zero in 2019. It also happens that was also their best record under Frost at 5-7 and with multiple road wins. I think we can all understand the importance and the difficult nature that a road win has been under Frost. While 2020 is largely forgettable for many reasons, the last two years the turnover margin had jumped to -11 in 2020 and -5 in 2021. Comparatively to 2018 and 2019, it was -2 and 0 respectively. These numbers are especially concerning when you consider the fact that the defensive scheme is considered attacking and aggressive. As we have seen, the offense has put too much pressure on the defense with its ability to turn it over in droves.

Impact of the Running Back

It’s no secret that Adrian Martinez was a dual threat QB, but it’s confirmed in a big way when you notice he was Nebraska’s leading rusher 2 of the last 4 years and led the team in rushing attempts 3 of those 4 years. Nebraska has regularly rushed for around 200 yards per game and while impressive on paper, does not look all that impressive when you dive into the numbers. With a Scott Frost offense there has to be some projection of a QB run game, but the last two years have only become more dependent on the QB run game. In 2020, two of the top three rushers - in attempts and yards - were quarterbacks. In 2021 Adrian Martinez accounted for nearly a quarter of the teams rushing yards (525/2191) and 48% of the teams rushing touchdowns (13/31). This is also troubling when you couple that with the report after the season that Adrian Martinez suffered a broken jaw vs Michigan State. Rahmir Johnson took control of his opportunity in 2021 but he was not the workhorse they needed, and the RB room didn’t have the horses for a proper committee. Rahmir Johnson stepped up when we needed him ala Terrell Newby, but it’s clear this team needs a bit more punch for the Big Ten. The committee of Yant, Anthony Grant, Rahmir Johnson, and Gabe Ervin lead me to believe this group is more equipped to handle the job. Bryan Applewhite also brings a bit more schematically to the table than Ryan Held so this group should be put in a much better position for success in 2022.

Kenny Larabee - KLIN

Consistent Offensive Line Play

Originally I imagined better protection for the quarterback but it’s hard to ignore the below average run blocking that was displayed in 2021. While I think Adrian Martinez contributed to this lack of protection at times it was clear there was a disconnect with some of the fundamentals and aggressive nature many great units possess. The addition of Offensive line coach Donovan Raiola has been nothing but praise to this point in the offseason. Frost and Trev Alberts have mentioned in multiple interviews his aggressive teaching nature and approach to fundamentals is what had them interested. Even recruits have brought up the way he teaches things in the film room to make them feel comfortable. At times last year we were seeing communication errors with this unit and a lack of “attitude” when finishing the play with the exception of Cam Jurgens. We were seeing more “holding blocks” to create a lane rather than pushing guys up field for more freedom for the backs. Teddy Prochazka appears to be the gem of this unit but there are still clear question marks on the interior line and tackle opposite Prochazka. Bryce Benhart is highly touted, but question marks with footwork have me wondering if they can afford to move him inside. I won’t begin to guess the starting 5 at this time but they have options with the transfer portal additions of Kevin Williams Jr and Hunter Anthony. I do believe Turner Corcoran moving inside is the right move as well. This team has young pieces so I don’t expect a dominant unit but some push in the run game is necessary.

Defensive Pressure on the QB

Isn’t it telling that not only does Nebraska have an issue with protecting its own QB, but also reaching the opponent quarterback? Two of the most important factors to this game and Nebraska has been flat out poor in those categories since Frost joined. Realistically this started long before Frost but we are only focusing on 2018-current for now. The addition of Ochaun Mathis and impressive growth from Garrett Nelson should help the team improve in this area, but it’s hardly a set in stone solution. Nebraska is also replacing a lot of production from this defensive line so players like Ty Robinson, Caleb Tannor, and Colton Feist will need to step up more than they have to this point. The additions of Devin Drew and Stephon Wynn should help depth but I expect them to be just that; depth pieces. Caleb Tannor has shown decent prospects for rushing the passer - and that is what he was recruited for - but it hasn’t shown up in the way that was expected for sacks or pressures. This team has been looking for a solid EDGE rusher since Randy Gregory so it’s not an easy find. This is also not a Nebraska only problem; EDGE rushers have become one of the most desirable and scarce positions to recruit and draft at the next level. Hopefully players like Jimari Butler, Ernest Hausmann, and Blaise Gunnerson can flash this ability enough to play on third downs. It's in those early games against North Dakota or Georgia Southern you hope Nebraska can get a decent lead to let those young guys get some live reps.

Winning the Games They’re Favored In

Well duh, right? We have also been hearing for years how bad this team needs momentum. Believe this narrative or not, momentum and confidence is a real thing, especially in sports. I don’t believe this solves all of Nebraska’s problems but I do feel that had they “learned to win” situations that we saw similar to the endings of Michigan and Michigan State in 2021 could have been easily avoided. The “here we go again” mentality is alive and well in that program and the only way to shut it down is to simply win games. For reference, in 2018 the opener against Akron was canceled due to weather. They started that year 0-6 with opening losses to Colorado, Troy, and Michigan on the road to the tune of an absolute beating. In 2019, they lost to Colorado on the road where they had a late lead. A win here would have allowed a 4-0 Nebraska team to head home to a night game vs a highly ranked Ohio State with College Gameday in Lincoln. There is no reason to believe Nebraska wins that game simply by beating Colorado, but we know confidence likely leads to a better showing on national TV. While it's hard to make any reservations about 2020, they opened that year with a road visit to Ohio State and eventual Big Ten west champs Northwestern in week 2. Fast forward to 2021 and we all remember. The most deflating loss of my fandom, a loss week 1 to Illinois in which they are bringing in a brand new coach in year 1. Illinois certainly surprised many in 2021 with a new coach, but Nebraska had zero business losing that game.

This early season momentum may seem like a cop out or an excuse, but it has merit and Nebraska has failed themselves while also being failed by the schedule during these past 4 years. 2022 sets up an early season schedule for Nebraska to do some real damage if they can finally stop hurting themselves. We all know how hard that is, however.

Nebraska has a real shot of making a bowl game in 2022 and I don’t think the staff expects any less. Many will have some number in mind for wins needed for Frost to stay - some will say 8, others will say the division - but I frankly think you would be insane to think Frost would get fired after attaining a bowl game in 2022. Expectations from Frost aside, achieving a bowl game in 2022 has this team on the up and on the right track for the future.