Wednesday Champions League Preview PSG/Bayern and Chelsea/FC Porto

Its always exciting to watch the first UCL games on Tuesday, only to realize we have two more games the next day! After an exciting Dortmund/Man City matchup yesterday, we are blessed with PSG vs Bayern Munich today which I imagine will deliver. Today we will preview FC Porto/Chelsea and PSG/Bayern.

PSG vs Bayern Munich (-110) (O/U 3.0)*

What a matchup! No explanation needed for why you need to watch for Kylian Mbappe, but this Bayern team is loaded across the board even with Robert Lewandowski missing this first leg. Some of the best goal scoring titans in all the world, these two teams last matched up in the 2019-2020 UCL final with Bayern winning 1-0 to claim the trophy. Bayern is currently running on an unbeaten streak of 19 games in the Champions League, with 18 of those victories and one draw to La Liga table leader, Atletico Madrid in December 2020. If PSG is not able to outright win the match with Lewandowski out, with this being at Allianz Arena, the hope is to take the advantage on away goals heading into the second leg. Bayern Munich has not lost a home match since December 2019 so it certainly will be no easy feat, even with one of the best in the world in Kylian Mbappe leading the charge. Also, good news for Germans, Alphonso Davies and Jerome Boateng have now completed their one game suspension and should be available for this match. While PSG will also be missing a few pieces – including Marco Verratti – due to COVID issues, both are known for their depth, so I do not see it changing the landscape of this matchup much. I do expect some fireworks in this game so the over/under here is intriguing.

Prediction: There is a clear path to victory for PSG with Lewandowski out, unfortunately, Bayern has goal scorers at nearly every third of this team and I think the entire team steps up in Robert’s absence. Eric Maxim Choupo Moting seems fit to replace Lewandowski to create problems up front. Look for the likes of Goretzka, Thomas Mueller, and Joshua Kimmich to control this game from the midfield. Bayern is just too much for Mbappe and Neymar and I see them beating PSG 3-1 today to setup an advantageous second leg with still a chance at away goals. If you’re looking for value, PSG ML is +270 if you feel they are able to capitalize on key Bayern injuries along with the -110 over.

FC Porto vs Chelsea (-130) (O/U 2.0)*

Not to be overshadowed by the Bayern/PSG titan matchup, these two teams have potential to give us one of the best matches of the tournament. Even after suffering a loss to the worst team in the table – a 2-5 loss to West Brom – Chelsea looks to change their international fortune with a chance to reach the Champions League semifinals. That match against West Brom seemed to be more of an outlier rather than the norm, as that broke a 7-match clean sheet streak for the blue shirts. Chelsea has also won 6 of their last 7 in the UCL so with a fully fit roster, Tuchel appears to have this squad primed for a Champions league run. FC Porto managed to score at least one goal in all but one of the last 12 matches, across all competition. Porto deserves all of the respect from Chelsea after knocking out Cristiano Ronaldo and Juventus from the round of 16 on away goals. While Porto is a prolific goal scoring team, first in their league, they will be missing their top scorer in Sergio Oliviera due to the number of accumulated yellow cards in the first leg. Something must give in this matchup as Porto look to continue their goal scoring ways while Chelsea hopes to return to their recent defensive form showed in the Premier League. The battle of opposite styles, one team will have to impose their style on the other.

Prediction: I see this as a defensive battle, even with the scoring ability of Porto. With a fully healthy squad, Thomas Tuchel has plenty of options in defense and the midfield so there should be no excuses. As noted above, I believe the West Brom fiasco was more of an outlier and even potentially looking ahead to this matchup. I will be intrigued with the lineup Chelsea goes with, but I see this as a 1-0 win for Chelsea. The loss of Oliviera makes things difficult for Porto but there is value in the FC Porto ML if you feel Chelsea will still be reeling off that premier league defeat. FC Porto ML is +400 with an over/under of 2.0 (-110).

*All bets/lines via Bovada.com