Celtics vs Warriors 2022 NBA Finals Preview

Celtics and Warriors is the perfect Finals matchup and I am watching either way, but I personally was rooting for this matchup. The clash of styles is certainly intriguing and although on different paths, we have two of the best coaches in the league in drawing up action for their stars.

Jayson Tatum is emerging as a true two way star and the Celtics have really merged as a group as the year went on. Ime Udoka put a central emphasis on the defense - catapulting Tatum on that side of the ball - and started acknowledging Tatum as the true alpha of this squad. These teams only played twice this year with the series being split and the Celtics winning the most recent matchup by a whopping 22 points back in March 2022. The Celtics were arguably the best team in basketball after the All Star Weekend and it showed in that March matchup. Marcus Smart will test that DPOY status against arguably one of the most difficult players to guard in the league in Steph Curry, but will the refs allow the physicality he strives off? With all of the X factors and "most important player" arguments, health is easily the biggest factor in this series. As Draymond Green mentioned on his podcast earlier this week in a Finals preview, the thing that keeps him up most at night is his own teams health. The small additions of Otto Porter, Iguodala, and Gary Payton add up in a big way. We saw an injury plagued Eastern Conference Finals on both sides, but there is real concern that both Time Lord and Marcus Smart can continue to stay healthy for an entire series. As fans, we all hope for complete health on both sides.

One of the more exciting aspects of watching the Warriors during this Big 3 run is their ability to create looks with movement on and off ball. While the complaints of moving screens are a real thing, its a league wide issue and not just the Warriors so I am not really concerned with discussing it here. Steve Kerr knows how to get his stars the ball and the unselfishness of Curry should not be understated. The basketball community loves to preach ball movement and unselfish basketball, but nobody truly embodies that the way Steph Curry does. There is a reason this is not a duplicated style and not every superstar can make those sacrifices or play that way. He isn't the focal part of every play but the attention he garners naturally opens looks for others. The Split Action the Warriors have run for years continues to be effective with the gravity these shooters demand.

This post split action is something we see so often with this squad and as it looks, Steph is merely a decoy & Looney is a reliable enough passer to work that role in the post. Otto Porter is a neutral shooter overall and it shows how quickly they can get a bucket if the defense does not communicate or is not locked in. I expect a bit more focus in the NBA Finals but we can see how quick the Warriors can get into a set for a good look.

On the surface this is just really good offense and shot-making by Jordan Poole on more split action. That is true, but if you watch closely you can see Tatum call the action out just as it begins the develop. Immediately upon the "split" Tatum instinctively jumps towards the paint expecting Moody to cut, as often times the film shows. In this league sometimes you just have to credit good offense however its this type of recognition and communication that will give the Celtics success in defending the Warriors activity.

The Celtics have consistently been a top defense since the All Star Break and I expect the physicality to ramp up. Marcus Smart is very good on ball defensively and in passing lanes so I wonder how often we will see him chase Curry around. The Celtics won't hide that they are a heavy switching team - mostly because they have the length in personnel to excel here - but it can cause problems with this Warriors team and their quick trigger from 3. If Udoka plans to shadow Curry with the DPOY I will be expecting quite a few stagger screens or something similar to truly make Smart work. There are ways for the Warriors to "rough up" Marcus Smart even with their finesse style. In the same breath, the Warriors have often times countered the gravity to deploy shooters to get other players open.

As we can see above, the Celtics - and Tatum specifically - have their eyes on Jordan Poole. I question why Marcus Smart goes under the screen here but the late pass by Porter allows him to recover nicely. Again, this is great offense and shot-making by Jordan Poole; however, we can see the defense is so keyed in on Poole that Draymond was given an open path to the basket. Otto Porter appears to be locked into Poole either way but it shows how easy slight communication errors can lead to open buckets due to the gravity these shooters demand.

We are all aware of the clip that Tatum and Jaylen Brown can score it. They both have skills in isolation that can collapse any defense or scheme. What we really need to see in this series for Celtics success is the playmaking of both to get the C's periphery players more involved. In the 2022 playoffs alone, the Celtics are 6-2 when Marcus Smart scores 15+ and 5-0 when he scores 20+. With his defensive responsibilities it isn't realistic to expect 20+ a night from Smart but it shows how much that third reliable scorer can really elevate this Celtics squad. Due to how much they depend on Tatum and Brown we can expect some half court woes offensively and that's when players like Derrick White, Marcus Smart, and Grant Williams must step up.

We can expect there to be a few double teams to come Tatum's way so this is exactly the type of team work the Celtics need to win the Finals. The movement of Al Horford opens up a clean look from beyond 3 for Smart who isn't usually a big threat from there. This will be the type of unselfish play that is the difference in a bucket and a turnover.

Ime Udoka has exceled as a rookie coach this year but I also see the experience advantage paying off greatly for the Warriors. The Celtics have a lot of playoff experience and also zero Finals experience. During the same podcast mentioned above, Draymond Green mentioned how different even practice for Finals games are. The media being there makes the whole scene a "shit show" and lots to unpack, especially for a first timer to the Finals. It is these little factors that hardly get mentioned in the build up that I see playing a factor.

The moment may end up being too big for some players and staff. I hardly expect this from Ime Udoka as he has shown all year in the face of adversity that he is not quick to react or show much emotion at all for that fact. He will have the same expression on his face if the Celtics are up 20 or down 20 and that mild mannered approach has worked for this group. The team trusts him now and you could feel the surge from this team in the second half of the season. Even with rumors swirling all year of "break up" between Tatum and Brown, he kept with the process. His ability to draw up plays for both Tatum and Brown is a real strength.

With the above graphic, we can see how easily Time Lord transitions from a ball screen to a down screen, to free up a looping Tatum. He still made the shot with sweet stroke but a better pass yields a cleaner look as well.

If you cannot tell, this matchup excites me more than I could've imagined once both the Suns and Bucks were eliminated. It was a real treat to see Udoka with more talent go up against Coach Spoelstra and the Heat. That series was full of adjustments and tactics that its something to revisit in the offseason. In my opinion, Erik Spoelstra is the best head coach in the game and Ime Udoka more than held his own this playoffs. The Celtics just continue to hit shots from 3 that was difficult for the Heat to keep up with. The general consensus is the Warriors are the dominant 3pt shooting team, but in the playoffs the Celtics average more percentage of points from three (37.7%*) than the Warriors (35.4%) and the Warriors score just over 40% of their points from in the paint. With the health of Time Lord being very inconsistent I do worry about the ability to defend this Warriors team for an entire series. Andrew Wiggins has absolutely stepped up this playoffs but being guarded by Luka Doncic may have skewed those optics a little. I don't expect him to have the same success and efficiency being guarded by the plethora of C's players they will dispel but his timely emergence will be a factor. I also expect to see Andre Iguodala this series if he is healthy as the Celtics can be a tad loose with the handle at times and Iggy can still swipe with the best of them. This is a fascinating series that I will call as Warriors in 6. Steph Curry likely gets his first Finals MVP and Tatum is a budding star heading into 2023.

BIYC Pick: Golden State Warriors in 6; Stephen Curry Finals MVP

*Stats from NBA.com